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Premier Oil Share Price - PMO

Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Premier Oil LSE:PMO London Ordinary Share GB00B43G0577 ORD 12.5P
  Price Change Price Change % Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -1.25 -1.40% 88.00 88.30 88.70 89.85 84.75 87.85 5,033,539 16:35:28
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m) RN NRN
Oil & Gas Producers 1,046.0 -246.5 -25.9 - 449.51

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Date Time Title Posts
13/10/201517:13Premier - Charts and All6,402
05/10/201516:40L2 - Observations, comments and screenshots13
07/9/201519:38Premier Oil50
05/12/201109:56PREMIER OIL BOILING UP1,157
24/10/200612:59Premier Oil - 20064

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mikesnr1: I wrote on 19May2013 (PMO Post3783)seeking an explanation for the apparently inconsequential nature of broker recommendations. I was advised politely to ignore them! Against my reasoning, it seems I certainly should have, but didn't. Still utterly perplexed, may I re-present the case and ask for serious consideration and comment? I'm a relatively unsophisticated investor whose feeling of powerlessness in the relentless devaluation of PMO prompted me to 'check out' the purpose of our (i.e PMOs) brokers. Those accredited are ALL MMEs/brokers/dealers. Frequently I'm told glibly "The market (market maker?) sets/influences share prices, not broker recommendations". But 'our' brokers ARE market makers by definition. And brokers. And dealers. And presumably advising their clients on the merits of investing in PMO to achieve the target price? So I choose to follow their advices. Todays count:15 Strong Buys;1 Buy; 2 Neutral;1 Strong Sell. The buys vary from 385p to >500p... Latest recs:- 09 Dec 2013 Finncap Buy 405p target 10 Dec 2013 Barclays Buy 555p target 11 Dec 2013 Goldman Sachs Buy 430p target ...And yet I've got it all wrong. --------------------------- Might I make comment on other contributions from the same board:- Dr.Biotech, 22May 2013 Post3787 "Specifically to PMO the share price will always be more dependent on the oil price and drilling results than broker forecasts. Trying to predict those two is somewhat difficult" The average price of Brent Crude 01January/11December 2013 has been about US$109.5, varying by only 14 cents (depending upon ones sources). According to the PMO Investor Presentation of 12December2013 "(This year)6 out of 7 exploration wells proved successful, and PMO delivered on portfolio upgrade". During the same period the PMO share price dropped from 400p to its present 4-year low of around 292p The reasoning behind your statement appears not to be borne out by the facts I'm genuinely sorry to say;equally perturbed that it should be so. --------------- buywell, 2May2013 Post 3713 (accompanied by PMO share price chart) "I think RKH will drag PMO below 300p" Buywell, I want to congratulate you on the many 'pessimistic'(for some!) but consistently accurate predictions made of PMOs share price. I assume you are a chartist? Your forecasts henceforth will be eagerly anticipated - by me at least. Will be obliged for any input you care to contribute. Thanks ---------------------------- Am about to berate the CEO for the appalling downward spiral this year. I don't expect a reply though. He'll be busy spending my £80k losses (since the EO.buyout)on buying up more acreage off the Falklands!
spacecake: Why is the share price going down ? What has to change to make it go up ? Who is going to do that ? When are they going to do that ? or Is there life elsewhere in the solar system ? Where is it ? Does it know about the PMO share price mess up ? Could they help things here ?
spacecake: There is a very strong correlation between brent and pmo share price, however drawing lines on a historical price chart to predict prices in the future is a folly. Should I sell now and repurchase in the future at a cheaper price ? only to find some random event sends the price up and further away from where I sold. That gambling. At some point (this year, next year, next decade!) the global oil imbalance will sort itself out. Currently, Mr Durrant and others are responding to changing market forces and IMV doing a good job. I guess (not a prediction!!) it's going to be a very long rocky road to happiness.
spacecake: Expensive risky behavior, all that trading costs money. Difficult to understand and as you say unusual, but, the stock market can be unfathomable at times. I try not to think about it too much and over the last twenty years found that not trading too often makes more money than flitting about from idea to idea. PMO share price seems more correlated to the oil price than any of its own actions.
bakunin: QuePassa long, so the Midas touch should send PMO share price up. But, today sold the last tranche of what I picked up at 126. Cushing, sanctions, contango, ... Big feeling of massive manipulation gone almost badly wrong. Inventories reports will probably now get manipulated for a few weeks with all the high-profile, trumpeted new longs (and yet Andy Hall's fund only returns 3.9%). The point-of-no-return moment is only about 4 weeks away, though. If it comes, crude going to at least $30. In which case, PMO will go way below 126. Starting to feel a bit like 2015 could be systemic crunch time for the oil+gas industry in the same way that 2008 was for the banks.
mikesnr1: This article may be of general interest? By Peter Stephens | Fool.co.uk – Tue, Dec 30, 2014 09:55 GMT "Suffice to say, 2014 has been a very challenging year for investors in oil stocks. After all, the price of oil has almost halved during the course of the year and now stands at just $56 per barrel. However, there could be further price falls to come, with Saudi Arabia apparently willing to let it fall to as low as $40 per barrel as it seeks to outmanoeuvre Russia and the US shale industry. As such, things could get worse before they get better for investors in oil stocks. However, for investors considering buying oil stocks such as BP (LSE: BP) (NYSE: BP.US), Premier Oil (LSE: PMO) and Gulf Keystone (LSE: GKP), now could be the perfect time to do so. That's because their share prices appear to price in an exceptionally bleak scenario where the price of oil will fall much further and stay there for a considerable period of time. So, if there is a positive surprise in that regard, it could lead to increases in the share prices of the three companies through improved sentiment. BP For example, BP trades on a price to earnings (P/E) ratio of just 9.4. This means that there is considerable scope for an upward rerating during the course of 2015, especially since the FTSE 100 has a much higher P/E ratio of 14.6. In addition, BP has a superb yield of 6.2% that is covered 1.7 times by profit and this could help to push the company's share price higher during the course of the next year, as income-seeking investors bid up the price of BP's shares. And, while the uncertainty surrounding Russia's economy could hurt the value of BP's stake in Russian operator, Rosneft, it remains highly diversified and vastly cheap. As a result, BP's share price appears to have a sufficient margin of safety included given the challenges it currently faces. Premier Oil Similarly, Premier Oil trades on a P/E ratio of just 6.6 using next year's lower forecast earnings. This seems to be extremely cheap for a relatively high quality company such as Premier Oil and means that there could be significant scope for an upgrade to its valuation next year - especially if the oil price does not continue its savage fall of the last few months. In addition, Premier Oil has a dividend that is extremely well covered by profit at 5.6 times and this means that there is considerable scope for higher shareholder payouts moving forward. Gulf Keystone Petroleum Of course, Gulf Keystone Petroleum's share price has been hurt by continued uncertainty in Iraq, as well as a lower oil price. As such, its shares are down 62% since the turn of the year despite there being relatively positive news flow in recent months. This has included the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) recently making its first payment to producers in the region, with Gulf Keystone receiving $15 million, and more payments are expected throughout the course of 2015. In addition, Gulf Keystone recently released an upbeat operational update and is anticipating production to reach 60,000 bopd over the medium term. While both of these examples could prove to be catalysts for share price growth next year, the situation in Iraq appears likely to remain volatile in the months ahead. As a result, and while Gulf Keystone does have significant long term potential, its shares may continue to disappoint during the course of 2015 due to the potential for further unrest in Iraq and its negative effect on sentiment. Of course, BP and Premier Oil aren't the only companies that could be worth buying right now. However, finding the best stocks at the best prices can be a tough task."
olieslim: 10:58 18/09/2015 [ART1] Feedback from PMO I just received a response to my email: The recent weakness in the share price is a frustration for us all. Our position both from an operational perspective and from a financial health perspective has not changed since our half year results were released on the 20th August but the oil price has continued to weaken. This has a direct impact on our share price as we are highly leveraged to the oil price movement. In addition many of the sell side analysts have chosen the recent weakness in the oil price to lower all of their oil price assumptions and this has had a knock on effect to all the sector share prices. I would urge you to watch our half yearly results presentation which can be found on our website. In this, our senior management clearly set out what a strong first half we have had year to date and our strategy and plans moving forward. On the financing side, Premier has $1.3bn of undrawn debt facilities available, we have no significant repayments of our debt due until 2019 and we have renegotiated our covenants with our lending group to provide additional financial flexibility. Premier has one of the strongest balance sheets in our immediate peer group and this combined with our production, hedging policy and cost savings means that we generated over $500m of operating cashflow in the first half of the year. Frustrating as the current share price is, as company all we can do in this turbulent times is focus on the areas that we can control such as our financing, our cost reduction programmes and our operations such that we are in a strong position to survive in a low oil price environment and benefit from any improvement in the oil price in the future. ---------------------- Hi, laserdisc. The above was posted on lse by ART1. I just copied it over to here. GL
cricklewood: Yesterday on M/F The oil sector may seem rather akin to the ‘wild west’ at the present time, with the financial performance of its incumbents being heavily affected by a low oil price. As such, investors may be put off investing within the space, with it seemingly being difficult to assess just where the price of black gold and the profitability of oil companies will go over the short to medium term. However, by focusing on valuations, profitability and margins of safety, it is possible to turn a low oil price to your advantage. And, while the ultimate performance of the oil price is beyond your control, through focusing on minimising risk and maximising potential return, you can begin to bring order to your exposure to a highly volatile, but very promising, sector. For example, the likes of Tullow Oil (LSE: TWL) and Premier Oil (LSE: PMO) both offer exceptional value for money at the present time, which provides investors in the two companies with a relatively wide margin of safety. In other words, if the oil price does decline then both Tullow and Premier Oil could see their share prices hold up better than expected. In fact, despite recording mass-writedowns to its asset base last year so as to turn its bottom line from black to red, Premier Oil still trades at a substantial discount to its net asset value. It has a price to book (P/B) ratio of just 0.58 so that even if the value of its net assets falls by 42%, it would still be trading at a relatively appealing price. Similarly, Tullow has a P/B ratio of just 0.95, which indicates that the market is already pricing in a fall in its net asset base. If this does not occur, both companies could see their share price rise, while even if further asset write downs become a reality, their share price falls may not be so dramatic since investors appear to be pricing in such a scenario. Meanwhile, the situation appears to be similar for oil explorer, Xcite Energy (LSE: XEL). It trades on a P/B ratio of just 0.45 but, unlike Premier Oil and Tullow, is expected to remain loss-making in each of the next two years. This is understandable, since Xcite is in a different phase of its development and, with it having an appealing asset base, it could prove to be a profitable long term investment. However, with the current state of the oil industry and the huge uncertainty surrounding even some of the major players in this space, sticking with larger, more diversified stocks that are set to be profitable and which have more certain finances, seems to be a prudent move to make. Certainly, Premier Oil and Tullow Oil are more expensive than Xcite, but they also have more certain futures and could more easily cope with further challenges within the sector. In other words, they appear to strike the right balance between being cheap and offering a stable near-term outlook. As a result, they seem to offer the more lucrative risk/reward ratio and could allow you to take advantage of the turbulence that is set to continue for oil explorers and producers.
jpcartman: Thank you for your email. The recent weakness in the share price is a frustration for us all. Our position both from an operational and financial perspective has not changed since our half year results were released on the 20th August. Any material change from the position at the time of the results or forward expectations would result in us having to issue a press release but as that is not the case our next scheduled "Trading Update" to the market is due in early November. The oil price has weakened since our half year results, which has clearly had an impact on our share price performance. In addition, many of the sell side analysts have chosen the recent weakness in the oil price to lower all of their oil price assumptions. Volatility has been high across the sector and many stocks including ours have been hit hard with no clear explanation for the move. Frustrating as the current share price is, as a company all we can do in this turbulent times is focus on the areas that we can control such as our financing, our cost reduction programmes, production operations and execution of our development projects such that we are in a strong position to trade and operate through the current low oil price environment and benefit from any improvement in the oil price in the future. I hope that the above reassures you about the robustness of our operations in the current environment. Kind regardsNatalie Natalie FortescueInvestor Relations
cricklewood: HTTPS://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2015/10/05/is-tullow-oil-plc-now-a-slicker-investment-than-premier-oil-plc/ Investors in Tullow Oil (LSE: TLW) are breathing a little more easily after the share price resurgence of recent days, which saw it leap almost 12% last Thursday and another 5% in early trading today. While the oil exploration and production company has been comfortably on course to meet its full-year production targets, the uncomfortable question facing investors is how it would manage its growing debt pile. Borrowings suddenly become a problem when the price you customers pay your sole product plunge by a third. Last week’s six-monthly reserve-based lend redetermination process should have been a routine exercise but is far from routine in troubled times like these. Markets saw the news that its available debt capacity remained unchanged at $3.7bn as a positive, allowing chief financial officer Ian Springett to talk up “the robustness of Tullow’s debt capital structure” and its supportive relationships with banks. Troubled Waters The relief rally only serves to underline the just how worried investors were, but it still needs a significant rebound in the oil price to make the numbers work. On that front, price expectations are rising as Russian jets scream into the Syrian quagmire, bringing one of the world’s biggest energy producers into indirect conflict with Saudi Arabia and its allies in the Gulf. This may tempt some investors who see today’s cheap oil price as a sweet buying opportunity, but they should realise that sentiment swings wildly on very little, and the oil price could even fall if Saudi Arabia decides to ramp up production to increase the pressure on Russia. Rally Round Premier Oil (LSE: PMO) needs oil at $60 but it isn’t getting it, with the price hovering around $48 instead. It has production problems too, unlike Tullow, with production down 7% to 60,400 barrels of oil equivalent per day over the last year. It did recently stretch its debt covenants into 2016 and its principal $2.5bn bank facility is good until mid-2019. That partly explains its mini-recovery, rising 10% over the last week. Premier’s operating margins of -15% show what damage cheap oil is doing. A share price drop of 53% in the last three months alone gives contrarian investors good reason to sit up and take notice, although consensus forecasts of a 36% drop in revenues and 155% drop in earnings per share are likely to make many of them sit down again just as quickly. The good news is that Premier does have some protection from its hedging programme and impressive 30% operating cost savings, while production should pick up as its Solan field comes on-stream later this year and Catcher follows in 2017. Operating cash flow was surprisingly strong in the first half at $513m, up from $499m last year. Net debt has fallen slightly to US$2 billion. With both stocks, the immediate pressure is off for now. Investors will be looking for further evidence that they can hang on until oil recovers, at which point both could fly. Tullow looks a little slicker than it was, but that debt pile still leaves it in a stickier situation than Premier. What happens to the oil price is anybody's guess and many investors may prefer a growth stock that is less of a gamble. I'm thinking of this company, which the Motley Fool's Head of UK Investing has singled out as the 1 'under-the-radar' pharmaceutical stock with blockbuster potential. The stock has already delivered a strong return and our top expert believes there could be more to come. In fact, he reckons it offers investors potential upside which may be as high as 45%! To find out which stock we consider one of the best small caps in the country, simply download our brand-new wealth report. It is free and without obligation, so click here now. Harvey Jones has no position in any shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has recommended Tullow Oil. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

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O 1,650 88.00 13 Oct 2015 16:35:45 GBX

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