Premaitha Share Discussion Threads

[hjb1] 04/10/2016 12:36

according to lse 8.33am when the bid was @ 10p .... ask @10.5p

[librag] 04/10/2016 12:28

hjb1, not sure about that. My L2 shows it as an OK trade but doesn't give a time. Today's price action, I think, makes it more likely to be a buy. What was the time of the trade?

edit: ooops, if before 9.00AM then it does look like a sell, considering the price action after and spread at the time.

[hjb1] 04/10/2016 12:19

550k was a sell...look at the time of the trade!

[deanroberthunt] 04/10/2016 12:05

550k buy, somethings afoot and it ain't 12 inches

[brainspark1] 04/10/2016 09:31

MMs taking PIs for a ride here

[davidlloyd] 04/10/2016 09:28

Yes - and it was on BBC Radio 4 this morning. It was in relation to a TV programme to be aired (A World Without Down’s Syndrome?) on BBC2 at 9pm on Wednesday . Discussion centred on the ethics of choosing not to have a D.S. child......

DL

[sh1984] 04/10/2016 09:25

Don't pick them up just yet, I think it still has a little more to drop..... 9p is a good support point

hxxp://uk.stoxline.com/q_uk.php?s=nipt

[brainspark1] 04/10/2016 09:21

Well didn't think it would go sub 10p on the back of the results, hey ho
May have afew here

[gooosed] 04/10/2016 06:37

NIPT to be discussed on Breakfast (BBC1) @ 08:10 this morning

[twix386] 03/10/2016 13:54

hjb1,

I suppose not, though if it did we would otherwise have been 50p+ but for the folly of iro 2 years under the kosh, to settle for paying a license we adamantly refused to even discuss from float - until a couple of weeks ago!

30p again would be good I grant you, but I'm not bought off if we threw away the last 18+ months rhetoric, pain and cost/dilution for something we avoided and dismissed at the start, probably for the reasons I stated above as much as any others given.

AIMHO

Ngen,

Please get it right! lol

You mean "commercial progress in Asia and M.E." I assume ;-)

50p by 2018/19. First expected 2015, 2016, 2017............

[ngen yap] 03/10/2016 13:37

Hi gnnmartin, it's not £19m cash outflow in the next 2 years. It's closer to £17m. This is from a standing start as at end 31 March 2016, of net cash of £3.97m. Based on the note, there is drawdown facilities from TF of £9m, so we are circa £4m short which is back end of FY18. This is on the basis of (a) conservative sales estimate ie sign ups to date and (b) all legal provisions paid out. Both of these can swing us into a position where we do not need further cash with TF backing.

I am very encouraged by progress made and particularly excited about commercial progress in Asia and US, plus alignment to TF new machines with extended distribution network and cancer detection.

Unless things get derailed, I am fully backing this management to realise their 50p initial target! Good luck all.

[hjb1] 03/10/2016 12:41

Twix, would you be that bothered if by "backing" down the share price went back to 30p+

[twix386] 03/10/2016 12:32

IMV I have already concluded that Illumina may settle approaching court date, so around end Q1,2017 or will go to court. They will want the commercial pain to hurt us as long as possible first. We have lost a lot of our Landgrab during this writ.

If they settle it will be due to the additional factors such as EU Commission, partership with Ariosa and the clout and financial TFS support signals,all of which were not known when writs issued. Nothing to do with Premaitha as such although we have benefitted greatly and welcomed these events. Otherwise Illumina will go to court, but there's got to be a fair chance of settlement before mid 2017.

If a late settlement then we should only settle for very good terms if our case is as strong as we have been told because we will have lost heavily in commercial terms and any settlement will obviously also stop us pursuing our own anti-trust and damages claim. I will not hold my breathe as I expect we will agree to settle late in the day if it's possible and sell it as a win even though Illumina scuppered our commercial goals, cost us dearly in time and money and then we give up our counter claim - just wait and see if there's a settlement that will of course be viewed as a victory or at least fair compromise and yet ignores all the long run pain and redress I just described. I'd bet on it because even now we've said we would consider paying for a license!!btw, not saying that we shouldn't as it may be our best option (we don't know enough detail/strength of our defence), but if we accept a settlement we also fold and surrender if there's no penalty for all the damage,time and costs.

[gnnmartin] 03/10/2016 12:27

I find the Hardman analysis a bit frightening. I'm not at all confident that Premaitha can stand £19m of cash outflow over the next two years, and the possibility of placing to raise a significant chunk of that is (IMO) ensuring that the share price stays low and making the prospect of a placing even less attractive.

On the other hand, the Hardman sales forecast do seem particularly modest: they do say "Our forecasts for Premaitha are conservative, largely based only on active contracts/distribution agreements". The current year made just over £2m of tests mainly from 2 lab groups operating for only 6 months, there are now 9 groups and hopefully growing. The unknown (to me) is whether the two that provided the bulk of the custom in '16 were exceptional. If they are not, then I would look to £8m at least, perhaps more, for 2017 rather than the £4.6 that Hardman predict. I am guessing wildly, of course, but hopefully we will get a better idea once the interims are announced. Presumably Hardman have already checked their thinking with Premaitha, and since the half year is now over, I'm rather afraid that Hardman will prove more nearly correct than I.

[gnnmartin] 03/10/2016 12:07

The licence fee is not "the way forward" unless Illumina play ball. The "level playing field" licence fee envisaged would be (I'm guessing) low, at most a few percent on the cost of sales. Illumina don't want that: they want the whole cake. So the question is, will Illumina hold out in the hope of eliminating NIPT competition entirely, or will they look for something much less. And if they do open negotiations for something much less, will Premaitha decide it is worth agreeing to a modest ("level playing field") licence fee rather than face the expense and risk of going to court, even though they don't think they should really pay anything.

[spec7] 03/10/2016 10:27

Have to agree twix, if a licence fee was the way forward why didn't they go for that when they started up and i doubt Thermo would be backing this if they thought Illumina would just licence in effect to them. On the other hand Hardman are just saying what they are paid to say ;-)

[brainspark1] 03/10/2016 10:26

And they have exponential growth.

[dave444] 03/10/2016 10:16

TWIX the gross margin is tiny and they have huge overheadThey are burning cashAs I said Thermo Fisher are key here

[twix386] 03/10/2016 10:15

A bit perplexed

From Hardman.....
this might force the company (Illumina) to seek a deal whereby it grants patent licenses to use its technology on reasonable (the same) terms as those already in place with its affiliated companies, making it an even playing field"

I thought we came to market on the basis that we did not infringe their patent and had our freedom to operate license so we did not need to pay a license fee and had not sought a license. Now, a win for us seems to be at best paying said license fee!!! I accept had we sought a license Illumina could have refused I suppose,but we came to market clearly with the view we didnot need or seek a license. Shows how the story has moved on when now if we can get to pay a license fee it's a victory we would gladly settle for!!

[twix386] 03/10/2016 10:11

from Hardman

Gross margin – The IONA test gross margin will expand from current levels (33.7%) with increased volumes

Over to you Dave444

[brainspark1] 03/10/2016 07:45

RNS OUT on research note

[brainspark1] 03/10/2016 07:17

The fightback

[twix386] 02/10/2016 03:54

dave444

yes we did ;-)

I think costs will undoubtedly fall.
We can look at the actual sales numbers for now as a guide compared to forecast.
Profits were GBP 2.5m of that GBP 2,005,782 was for test sales alone and we are told we had over 17,000, so I will assume iro 17,300 and so GBP 116/test on average.

Note: doesn't differentiate between test sales and full service costs, as just an overall figure - I think this figure was stated somewhere in Prelims, but I am not searching for it right now and in any event GBP 116/test is on the low end of test sales cost, let alone Full Service cost.
Unless I am missing something this is already on the low side?

______________________________________________

It is very interesting to note TW is still stating cash flow positive in early 2017. Hardman doesn't have cash flow positive forecast until 2018 where sales estimate of GBP 11.61m are forecast.
Finncap tells us that iro 93,000 tests would be required pro-rata to make GBP 11.61, though this was based on GBP 125/ test and their sales figures forecasts are lower than Hardmans anyway with 2018 Estimate at GBP 9.5m .
Finncap's cost per test is higher than we are achieving making cash flow positive harder to reach, never the less TW says it will be reached in early 2017 so make of that what you will when we are told in Prelims we had over 17,000 tests (Finncap's Estimate was 15,000) and that we will be doubling Labs to 9 and sales are good and growing, especially from Asia and M.E.. Dave's point of lower costs seems to be already apparent compared to forecasts.

AIMHO

[hurricane.] 01/10/2016 20:31

Who is keeping you afloat davey boy? Lol