Plutus Powergen Share Discussion Threads

[zengas] 09/1/2017 10:58

GreenFrog is a private company and worth looking at how it similarly is funded/owned.

It has 214 MW capacity recently moving into gas since those results so revenue and hopefully profits should increase further and provide a guide for PPG.

PPG target is 200MW minimum (diesel generation) this year from a 700MW pipeline.

It's also planning 100MW of gas announced 2 months ago (Oct 2016) in addition to the diesel. It then announced an indicative partnership with a big 6 utility to partner on renewable or gas powered generation going forward.

It also intends to have the first solar-flex sites in planning "within 6 months" as stated 5th September - so indicative by end of next month.

In addition they plan to progress/develop power storage.

Worth noting that Balfour Beatty bought over Alkane (minus their coal licences) for £61.4m in late 2015. They had £19m of debt and profit *before tax* was £1.4m for 6 months on t/over of £8.7m. They had 145MW of generating capacity installed (with a grid capacity of 160MW). They had 101 MW of capacity agreements in place but these still do not start until October 2018 - 3 years after they were bought out by Balfour.

I think GreenFrog has amassed a decent growing cash pile of around £7m even after all loan repayments and after paying a hefty dividend of £1.4m earlier in 2016 in just 3 years of trading.

Based on the above, I feel PPG will be worth a lot more than their current £17.5m (2.55p) value. The last broker valuation was some time ago in the middle of last year and before all the latest updates and was given as 3.8p.

Green Frog on a P/E of 20 would put a similar valuation to PGG of over 20p and GF is still much in growth mode. Relative to Alkane buyout, PPG could attract 9-10p ?

Got to look beyond just this years target of 200MW minimum and see this as 3-400MW potential in the next 12- 18 months and an even greater potential valuation if not taken out/possible consolidation.

[gerrykells] 09/1/2017 10:10

Just checked the website. Good looking company. Forward looking too. Do they only use gas...i couldn't quite work it out. hxxp://www.greenfrogpower.co.uk

[1savvyinvestor] 09/1/2017 09:59

Thanks zengas. All looks so good for PPG which is still below the radar but now in a trading range 100% above where it was 5 months ago waiting for a breakout

[zengas] 09/1/2017 09:40

Another fantastic year of results just out for Green frog on their 12 sites totalling 214 MW capacity. After tax and loan repayments/interest, they made a record net profit of £6.254m.

"The Group provides STOR and other balancing services to National Grid, comprising 214 MW of STOR and 40MW for other services from 12 sites across England and Wales. This is the group's 3rd full year of trading.

As planed the Group has repaid a further £3.7m of the RBS loan facility, £0.7m of its Lloyds Babk facilities and £0.9m of junior facility during the year (Total repaid £5.3m in the year).

The Group profit for the year after taxation amounted to £6.254m" (2015 = £4.127m).

Results 2016 (2015 in brackets).

Revenue £16.825m (£16.139m).
Cost of sales £3.186m (£4.255m)
Admin £1.093m (£1.6242m).
Operating Profit £12.545m (£10.241m).
Loan repayment and interest £5.185m (£5.085m).
Dividends paid earlier in the year = £1.4m. (£1.227m).
Net profit after tax and loan repayments = £6.254m (£4.127m).

Total loans outstanding = £53.243m. (£57.406m) .

[1savvyinvestor] 09/1/2017 08:35

Last chance for a good entry point imho! Quiet on news front but that is temporary. So much going on behind the scenes.

[1savvyinvestor] 04/1/2017 11:38

Agreed Nopolipo. My sane self fully invested here!! Little flutter on the ctag short you know about!!

[marvelman] 04/1/2017 10:44

Encouraging start to 2017.

[gspanner] 04/1/2017 10:32

Should be room for a nice forward statement though... Something like Plymouth has been turned on 15 times since commissioning....

[bishopawn] 04/1/2017 08:58

Some very cold nights in Plymouth this week.....Ernsettle must have been switched on quite a few times now since the start of November....£15,000 a shot I understand. Nice little earner for starters and more like that, a lot more like that in the pipeline. This is really a "no brainer" for a major re-rating.

[bishopawn] 03/1/2017 21:31

Interims last year were announced on 29th January and were very upbeat on the progress made in the previous 6 months up to 31st October 2015. I would expect another good report, although Plymouth falls just outside of that accounting period, being commissioned at the start of November.

[bishopawn] 31/12/2016 22:13

It's itching to go higher. It just needs a trigger of some sort, which should come in January I think.

[1savvyinvestor] 30/12/2016 08:42

Again a good bit of analysis bishop . This indicates real support at this level . Extremely positive basis for a push higher in 2017.

[bishopawn] 30/12/2016 08:08

The Trades for the month of December, up to and inclusive of yesterday 29th December, work out as follows:-

BUYS......18.8 MILLION
SELLS.....16.2 MILLION
???.......15.7 MILLION

If we evenly split again the ??? category of trades, that would mean there were:

BUYS.......25.85 MILLION
SELLS......24.00 MILLION

[1savvyinvestor] 29/12/2016 12:23

thats about £4 million - not bad trading for a small cap!!

[bishopawn] 29/12/2016 08:35

Totting up the trades, since Plymouth went "live" on 9th November, there were indicative trades as follows:

BUYS..........60.88 MILLION
SELLS.........53.71 MILLION
???...........50.36 MILLION

If we evenly split the ??? category of trades, that would mean there were:-

BUYS.........86 MILLION
SELLS........78.89 MILLION

[marvelman] 28/12/2016 15:18

Well another 115k added for me. Target reached.

[marvelman] 28/12/2016 15:06

You have answered my question Zengas:-))

[zengas] 28/12/2016 15:05

I think if there's any seller it could be Paternoster letting a few go. The story has much, much further to go.

ZENGAS - 10 Nov 2016 - 09:10:45 - 2842 of 3064 THE RISING POWER OF PLUTUS POWERGEN - PPG
An up to date indication of revenue/profit relative to sites/MW capacity.

This is what Green Frog Power Ltd managed to do for year end 31st March 2015. Next accounts won't be out until December 2016.

It's borrowings are £58.74m at 31/3/2015. It is repaying circa £5m per year loan financing and after this annual repayment is showing a net profit after tax of £4.24m. It's a privately owned company so not a listed vehicle.

"The Group provides STOR services to National Grid comprising 214 MW from 12 sites across England and Wales. This is the groups second full year of trading."

(Previous year accounts to 31/3/14 in brackets)

Revenue £16.1m. (£12.167m).
Cost of sales £4.255m. (£1.443m)

Gross Profit £11.88m. (£10.72m).
Admin £1.64m. (£3.67m).

Operating Profit £10.24m (£7.04m).

Loans and Interest payments £4.94m (£5.065m).

Profit before tax £5.297m (£1.982m).

Tax £1.055m (£600k)

Net Profit for the financial year £4.24m (£1.382m).

Dividend paid £1.227m.

Relative to the above, PPGs first year target is a similar 214 MW of power generation. Given the mix/ownership of sites I see a target of a minimum 6p. (I'm already holding 15 months).

We will eventually own a much greater percentage of the sites and have a pipeline of 700 MW plus 100 MW of gas powered generation being contemplated - some total 4 times greater than what Green Frog did in their last accounts.

15-20p is a patient hold target as momentum builds for PPG.

[marvelman] 28/12/2016 15:04

Zengas

"That's me with 25m sold"....I assume you mean you have calculated the number of sells as being 25m rather than you personally have sold 25m?

[1savvyinvestor] 28/12/2016 14:59

I genuinely don't think it is one person and buys have pretty much come in for most sells at this price . Would be very surprised if it were paternoster . What one has to remember is that there are a lot of people who bought round about £5k worth which is now worth £15k. There are still some who view this as having run its course and are going elsewhere for their next big thing . Unfortunately for them they will miss the real rise here up and above 3p.!but of course I may be wrong!

[marvelman] 28/12/2016 14:56

I havn't done so Marvin although these large trades surely over so prolonged a period surely do not relate to a PI. It follows (in my opinion) that it must be PRS as the largest shareholder outside of the directors which would not be unexpected given the profit they are holding. Nothing better to buy so I am holding firm.