Plus500 Share Discussion Threads

[lampran] 11/4/2017 08:52

new south Africa website looks great,

hard to believe plus is such an efficient profit making company considering it has 40 odd employees

[sailing john] 11/4/2017 08:41

VIX up through 14 presumably responsible for a tick up here and at IGG/CMCX
Trump coming into play - if I was a betting man I would say more to come from the Trump camp - the whole family appears to be getting involved!!!

[linton5] 11/4/2017 07:40

26th April there you go guys,if plus drops from here I'm waiting with my big net. Bargain bargain bargain

[sailing john] 10/4/2017 21:51

Planelondon re Q1 KPIs
A very difficult question as we have had extremely low volatility despite Trump!
And it is hard to know where AUAC is going to sit given they managed a 50% reduction in Q4 but don't explain how so I assume this will revert back to nearer normal levels in Q1
fwiw here are my current model KPIs for Q1 shown against prev year for ref
And my model is always cautious - FY outturn likely to be higher

.....Q116 Q416 Q117(E)
Rev. $85m $92m $75m
New C 29k 22k 20k
Act C 68k 72k 68k
ARPU 1256 1277 1100
AUAC 1316 742! 1200

FY 2017 model ouput
Rev $295m vs $328m in 2016
PAT $97m vs $117m in 2016
PE 6.2 at 420 and 1.25
Yield 10-15% dependent on special
nai SJ

Thanks for SA link

[planelondon] 10/4/2017 18:27

Sailing John, following on from your post mentioning IG website, Plus have launched their new style website for the South Africa market. If you're interested the web domain is www.plus500.co.za

[sailing john] 10/4/2017 17:56

Lydnem quote "I am not going through all the reasons why I have been a long time bear from 700, and called it right both times."

You have a very selective memory - I recall you were calling it short when the Playtech deal collapsed in Nov 15 and I bought on the bell at 289

A quick look back as you suggested shows you were calling a short from 360 just before the Playtech deal was pulled and got terribly excited just after thinking the Regulatory issue was with PLUS rather than Sagi

"ELcapital 6 Nov '15 - 09:54 - 10177 of 11422 0 0
I think the trade is the other way around. Limited downside on a short."
Price then 360p!!!! and went on to 770p and you were calling it short all the way up!

This has been a volatile stock but over the last 5 years PLUS has bagged and paid around $2 in divis so anyone long would have had a good return even without trading in and out as most do!

It is difficult to assess market valuation currently due to Regulatory issues but one thing is certain PLUS are trading at roughly half the value of IGG and CMCX based on PE and Yield. I know you somehow think IGG is different ("Jag") to PLUS but if you bothered to read the accounts for IGG you would see that 90% of Revenue is from retail clients and roughly 50% Rev from UK. They also have spreadbetting! and binaries represent 11% of Rev!!! Yikes!, their web offering is "visually a little tired" by their own admission and they are playing catch up with PLUS regarding limiting client exposure re losses (now a Regulatory issue)
Just another view and why I think there is currently value in PLUS given the market value relative to IGG and CMCX.
GL - SJ

[planelondon] 10/4/2017 16:21

Anyone have any views on what Q1 KPI's (revenue, active and new customer numbers) might come in at? Hopefully, these will be released next week?

[pj0077] 10/4/2017 15:13

LydnemYou sound like a blind squirrel who has just found an acorn. Congratulations. I suspect it may be a while before you discover another :/

[lydnem] 10/4/2017 13:14

I am not going through all the reasons why I have been a long time bear from 700, and called it right both times. Look at the trend on the chart at the moment, its not rocket science.

I am proven right on this one, go back and look at my posting history where I was lambasted by a moron on here for my views, who lost a load on this afterwards and then stopped posting. Even threatened to have HMRC investigate me....despite not living in the UK for over a decade, just for my bear views!

[linton5] 10/4/2017 12:52

Something gonna give here soon,gonna blast either way. News very soon?

[lampran] 10/4/2017 11:53

Great example of why an opinion without evidence/facts/logic, is not an opinion.

It's just noise.

[pj0077] 10/4/2017 09:45

LydnemIf your decision to invest is based on past price movements, then you clearly think that markets are inefficient in their weakest form i.e. past prices reveal future prices.Three questions:1. Did the charts help you anticipate the slump in the IGG/CMCX/PLUS shares prices last Dec?2. Did the charts help you anticipate the subsequent bounce?3. Do the charts reveal the content of the forthcoming FCA report &/or the degree to which it has already been embedded in these share prices?Just curious.

[fenners66] 10/4/2017 09:37

Lydnem : Good to see that you are stating your bear position, that's fair enough but you have not backed it up with anything other than saying "chart looking a bit scary for the longs". So why do you think that?

[lydnem] 09/4/2017 18:20

Opinions differ. I am still a bear.

[planelondon] 09/4/2017 11:59

Lydnem, I'm with Sailing John on this one. Yes, there is regulatory uncertainty but with the UK market only representing 20% of Plus 2016 revenues and the proposed changes are not likely to come into force until Q3, Plus are in good position to prepare and adapt to the new rules. Plus have extremely nimble operations. IG may have a little more difficulty responding quickly to the changes given the size of their market share the UK. I will continue to hold and add when the opportunity presents.

[lydnem] 09/4/2017 09:10

opinions differ. I see a clear trend on the charts

[sailing john] 08/4/2017 17:58

Hardly!
Volatility has been at an all time low so all Brokers drifting
But PLUS performing better than peers as expected - and not forgetting the 50p divi (vs 9p at IGG) that will soon be in the post.
Unusually I have held through this period of very low (lowest VIX quarter for 10 years apparently) simply because PLUS is so undervalued compared to peers (PE was approx 50% of IGG and CMCX)
Markets finally getting "Trumped" and all asset classes on the move last week.
All of these 3 provide a cracking hedge if market turns down this year
Comparative charts from 6th Dec post Regulatory tightening proposals for UK

[lydnem] 08/4/2017 13:08

chart looking a bit scary for the longs

[planelondon] 05/4/2017 11:24

Timangkin: last year it was 18 April so I would imagine it will be a similar date.

[timanglin] 05/4/2017 11:01

Thanks valuehunter for the post, useful. Does anyone know when the next trading update is due? Thanks

[thevaluehunter] 04/4/2017 17:37

The traffic stays strong on semrush into April.

[lydnem] 03/4/2017 19:18

Blackrock buying heavy in IGG. Odey losing its shirt on plus

[sailing john] 03/4/2017 16:26

TVH - Exactly!
And all the CFD Brokers are a great hedge against market turbulence which is usually initiated with a negative shock - I'm happy to hold a large position for the longer term at these prices
GL - SJ