Plant Health Care Share Discussion Threads

[mdrans1] 18/6/2010 10:21

No PUGUGLY, not the "only way", unless you think Monsanto's customers are the only ones who know, or can be trusted, to tell the truth. You could phone PHC. coincall, (see post 17 Jun'10 - 18:36 - 252) has explained how the information was delivered to him. I think it unlikely that they would tell blatant lies.

[pugugly] 18/6/2010 09:25

coincall: Thanks for further details. I agree with your comment on root stimulation. the old way used to be plenty of humus an deep cultivation to break up hardpans. From what I have been able to gather Herpin can give the rootlets greater impulsion. From my own experince (some years ago however) one of the main problems with coated seeds was the need to ensure the coating was kept moist but not dry so the rootlets were not constricted.

I suspect the only way we will find out if there was/is a coating problem would be to identify and phone some of Monsanto's customers.

[watchout2] 18/6/2010 09:07

Couple of decent buyers at 99p should have placed the orders on the sets
board and got filled at 95p, looking good though for a bounce back into
3 figures.

[watchout2] 18/6/2010 08:09

Bounce today or seller continues to control ?

Got to rebound at some point if it's a "one off" !

[coincall] 17/6/2010 18:36

PUGUGLY

Info has come to me via stockbroker who has been following the company for a few years. Both of us have a keen interest in natural root biostimulation as we see this as the only way forward as oil becomes ever more expensive and difficult to find (see reports and news from Matt Simmons).

As I said, it was the PHC pr response from a phone call to them yesterday where they said the problem was at Monsanto rather than a problem with Harpin. I have no reason to think the product advantage to plant growth is at issue, if it is a coating bonding problem which works on the other seeds used by Monsanto, then the question is why? Have Monsanto used different adhesives comparred to the trial coatings?

Ps the quote was from yesterdays RNS not the accounts

[mdrans1] 17/6/2010 17:17

PUGUGLY - 17 Jun'10 - 16:21 - 250

I will settle for the coincall explanation, unless you have reason to suspect he made that bit up about the word from PHC's PR people.

[pugugly] 17/6/2010 16:21

coincall:> imo you can read anything you like into the statement in the accounts. May just be lower sales due to reduced demand or could just as easily fit a coating problem (as suggested above) resulting in less coated seed available for sale and hence lower sales.

imo If it was a customer demand problem I would have expected words such as "lower than estimated customer demand" The omission of these words leaves the exact position of Herpin open to speculation.

Wording in my view is as clear as floodwater. (Any other views on interpretation of the statement?)

[bobdouthwaite] 17/6/2010 16:08

Coincall, thanks for the insight.

[coincall] 17/6/2010 15:59

envirovision,

Monsanto's fault. Hence the statement yesterday...

"The Company announces that following the notification by one of its key
customers of lower than expected sales of the Company's Harpin product in the
current growing season resulting in an unanticipated carry-over of inventories,
the Company has reduced its expectations of sales of Harpin in 2010 and, in
consequence, its expected profit before tax for the year.

The Board believes this is a onetime event and the excess inventory will be
moved through the customer's existing channels by year end and deliveries of our
Harpin product will realign with its expectations beginning with the 2011
marketing year."
-------------------------

I am not seeing this as a problem with Harpin and note that the announcement states "onetime event".

[watchout2] 17/6/2010 15:58

Ah it let me buy after all, somebody selling in 1k lots on sets, they
need clearing first before any bounce.

[watchout2] 17/6/2010 15:56

Cannot buy these online, trying to but no quote, might be a buyer around
these levels, it's dropped quite a bit in 2 days.

[envirovision] 17/6/2010 15:53

coincall, if thats true then that could mean theres a problem with harpin. So are they trying to say its monsantos fault or are they saying they are not sure why its not working well?

[coincall] 17/6/2010 15:38

bobdouthwaite,

Word from PHC's pr team suggest that harpin did not adhere to the soya seed in their (Monsanto) commercial coatings (whereas it worked fine in tests) - is this an error/cost cutting by Monsanto? All other applications to Monsanto seeds have worked as designed. Maybe soya is smoother/oilier/heavier in transit/sowing than other seed? Anyway, that was the reason given by PHC.

Farming is a fine balance between profit and loss. The extra price for Harpin coating will increase yield and therefore profit compared to uncoated.

[bobdouthwaite] 17/6/2010 12:36

Fwiw Monsanto's share price has fallen almost 40% since the beginning of the year, suggesting hard times for agribusiness more widely at the moment. I'm sure they did their due diligence with Harpin, but why would farmers pay for higher yielding Roundup Ready when soyabean futures look so poor?

[traderabc] 16/6/2010 17:43

Paul Stamets: 6 ways mushrooms can save the world

[cnx] 16/6/2010 16:35

mine 225 above

any ideas on last weeks drop in sp?

i think over one million shares traded 21 may

maybe worth asking company or lse who sold?

[envirovision] 16/6/2010 14:44

I looked at PIM on the last set of fund raising. Based on how PHC are struggling, I think its fair to assume PIM will certainly be going bust even if things do turn around for phc in the market.

[admiralne1son] 16/6/2010 14:36

I am out of this too. Exited PIM yesterday, they appear to be finding it a difficult market to sell in for one reason or another. Maybe a case of the big players controlling the market??

[envirovision] 16/6/2010 12:57

Makes the forward looking statements from the 2009 AR look rather miss leading now. Thats what I was trying to say in my post #232. So i can only but agree with you.

[ukinvestor220] 16/6/2010 12:53

How could they only just find out that over half of their annual sales would suddenly be lost ??

[ukinvestor220] 16/6/2010 12:43

i was surprised about that sell off over the last 2 weeks as well. So did they have to release the RNS due to the fall, or did they wait until their mates had sold off and then release it. I note big vol on May 21st

[envirovision] 16/6/2010 12:26

I dont know I'm not an expert of Harpin not being a farmer, but it seems a little odd. The company has racked up losses year on year for the last seven years and now it clearly appears this will be the eighth strait year.

Theres 15p cash per share left I guess at this minute, maybe less, if things dont change they will go bust in less than 2 years.

[bobdouthwaite] 16/6/2010 11:56

Perhaps it's not a problem with Harpin, but simply a reflection of relatively high global grain stocks. Farmers may not see the point of boosting yields when grain prices are relatively low.