Petropavlovsk Share Discussion Threads

[m_n_tomlinson] 14/3/2017 16:01

My fear is they take it below 5p. The results are bad, thereby ensnaring everybody, and the only way out for investors is to sell at a heavy loss.

[cl2201] 14/3/2017 15:58

m_n_tomlinson14 Mar '17 - 15:53 - 46109 of 46109

Not really something I'm taking into consideration as it is always hard to call the bottom. I'll keep adding as long as it keeps dropping.

[m_n_tomlinson] 14/3/2017 15:53

cl220114 Mar '17 - 15:49 - 46108 of 46108 0 0
Added more sub-6p. This looks like it is being manipulated - not sure by who or for what purpose but I personally will keep adding even if nobody else does!

The problem is how far will it be manipulated? Could this go sub 5p again?

[cl2201] 14/3/2017 15:49

Added more sub-6p. This looks like it is being manipulated - not sure by who or for what purpose but I personally will keep adding even if nobody else does!

POG is certainly not without its issues but it is in the best shape it has been in for a while (debt rearranged, IRC debt deferred, POX to be completed 2018, profitable), so I watch with interest to see how this share price situation unfolds.

[juju44] 14/3/2017 15:44

Back in the toilet. Could someone not just flush this dog away

[bambo1] 14/3/2017 14:11

If there were rumours of a takeover would that not have the opposite effect on the share price and cause it to move upwards not down as it is.

[stoopid] 14/3/2017 10:32

Well, I would actually love to see Wallys "predictions" come true. There is nothing to say they won't and I would agree that POG is undervalued as a business. But, no matter how POG try to rearrange it, debt is an issue that won't go away. They still have a bit of leeway on their own debt having pushed it out to 2022 and the bond only due repaying in 2020. The fly in the ointment, as it has been for years now, is IRC. Reward/gain vs possible bankruptcy. Bridge not due up and running for another 12 months at least.This saga is going to rumble on for at least 12 months until POG get the underground mining up and running and POX starts. Thus will all come to a head when the bond is due repaying. $100m is the figure and they better have the cash to pay it. I would bet the bondholders won't be so lenient this time especially if VV holds a large chunk as GRB has noted. This is another reason why I think there is something/ a takeover looming in the background as the share price continues to flounder....

[deanroberthunt] 14/3/2017 07:44

even the omnirampers have give up...

[grbaker] 13/3/2017 16:11

Well spotted Wally. Here's a direct link to the .pdf:

13 March 2017
Positive Progress at Amur River Bridge

[deanroberthunt] 13/3/2017 14:53

wallywoo is deluded, end of....

[wallywoo] 13/3/2017 11:27

I think this downturn, is either trouble with the last bit of refinancing (The Sberbank US$100m commodity linked loan facility remains on schedule for completion of final documentation, effective Q1 2017 - still no terms have been agreed, though they say it is coming). Or just investor fear - I suspect the latter with POG's history. Volume is not that high to really press the panic button, but if this gets any lower!!

BTW there is an update on the bridge Summer 18 finish on IRC's website today:

[grbaker] 13/3/2017 11:21

That is also perhaps why POG's share price reacts negatively to relatively small falls in the price of gold: should the worst case scenario occur (e.g. IRC can't service its debt); POG will need a higher PoG.

POG is stuck for options a bit IMO. I wouldn't want to deplete my mines at the current PoG if I was them; they clearly don't want to sell the IRC stake (which could end being highly valuable); and they need Gold to be higher to make progress on the POX plant.

So here we are: POG chugs along, waiting for either the PoG to improve or for IRC to become fully self-supporting.

The other major brake on IRC is the Amur river bridge. When that is complete and able to carry cargo, IRC will be one of the lowest cost bulk producers of iron ore in the World.

GLA.

[grbaker] 13/3/2017 11:08

IRC's share price has weakened a little Wally, but not to the extent that POG's has. I can't explain that; other than IRC's share price is already pretty low.

It still looks like cause and effect to me: the IRC RNS comes out, and down we go. We haven't had a holdings RNS or anything either. The burden of the risk is on POG as well, not IRC: if IRC fails, it's POG that has to pick up the bill; and POG will lose the value of their share in IRC as well.

The IRC RNS does, on the face of it, look like good news; but I don't think that's how it has been viewed/received (e.g. by the institutions/traders etc. that have the power to move share prices).

I could wrong, of course, and it certainly wouldn't be the first time either!

[stoopid] 13/3/2017 11:04

Thank you for that clarity GRB

[wallywoo] 13/3/2017 11:00

grb - if that was the case would not IRC share price tank and therefore, POG's indirectly?

IMO, IRC negotiated the payment holiday (at zero cost or interest) to get cash coming in, so that by 2018 it has a stronger balance sheet to not need POG's guarantee. They said as much in the press release

[grbaker] 13/3/2017 10:44

IMHO the recent decline in the share price started directly after the release of this RNS on 27th February 2017:



This basically states that IRC has negotiated a deferral of the two biannual debt payments for 2017 and spread the cost of the 'missed' payments out until 20 June 2020 (after which the original repayment schedule is resumed, ending in 2022). (Please also bear in mind that IRC had to issue shares to make the previous debt interest payment).

POG has fallen as a direct result of this RNS, again IMHO, because of the following:

1. POG guarantees IRC's ICBC debt facility to the tune of approx. (if memory serves) US$250 million; and

2. It seems like a reasonable assumption that IRC would have otherwise struggled to meet both 2017 payments. (Or why defer them?)

3. We can therefore surmise from the above that POG is still in danger of having to cover all of IRC's debt, should IRC default (with there currently being no real financial evidence available that IRC can cover its debt interest payments, let alone pay down the debt, even with Iron ore is at $90).

Add to all that the fact that Gold has also declined from $1,250 to $1,200, starting from 27th Feb. 2017; it's fairly clear what may have caused the share price to decline.

Also, gold looks weak at the moment. I think that the share price should improve, if Gold can hold $1,200 and rise to reclaim $1,250. However, with the FED threatening loudly interest rate rises; Gold in USD may remain weak for some time to come.

So I firmly believe that POG is mainly suffering from the continuing uncertainly at IRC (with no end in sight) and also from their (stupidly IMHO) stated need for Gold to be over $1,250 to self-fund the POX project.

It could be a few years yet before POG's share price recovers.

GLA, NIAI and please DYOR.

[wallywoo] 13/3/2017 09:41

All looking good for a bounce back up. Need to close at this level or higher. Don't want to be accused of ramping but if you look at last years share price they jumped from 5.5p to 9p in 3 months at a similar time. Remember with IRC stake valued at £100M, POG's gold assets current only £100M value (that's around half amount currently spent on POX, or a fifth of the amount invested in Pioneer or Albyn, crazy). This time next year Rodney!!

[stoopid] 13/3/2017 09:15

Yes, that's one reason for the low production levels. Another is that POG need POX. Half of there reserves are refractory and thwy are relying on it to boost prodyxtion.Also the typically poor grades of POGs ore. Typical grades are 1g per ton. That's why underground mining is being developed - high grade ore.Another reason is that they sold off all their aluvial assets due to the high price if production . That has resulted in a drop of around 120k Oz. I do believe that there is something going on in the background and that the share price is bring moved around because if this. But what it is who knows. Takeover? Bond issues again? Debt? Take your pick of issues.But to say that POG are holding back ore simply because of the gold price is ludicrous.

[bambo1] 13/3/2017 07:40

POG will only produce enough gold to meet their needs at these gold prices and their needs are simply to keep their head above water by paying costs including interest on debt. I don’t believe any gold producer will dig up gold to sell it at these prices, they will simply tread water until the gold price reaches a level that will pay big dividends/profits so best thing to do in my opinion is top up at these low prices and go on holiday for a couple of years. Once gold reaches and exceeds new heights I believe production will double over night.

Or at least things will go somewhere along these lines.

[cottlet] 12/3/2017 16:39

apologies for poor spelling, I forget I don't have spell check on ADVFN!

[cottlet] 12/3/2017 16:38

popeye
Do you haven anynother reasons for gold production go down in 2014/15/16? other than alow gold price?
you did say it would go up when gold price above $1800
do you still believe this to be true? and if so what of results in late April?
You have tobe really solid to pass up increasing production for 3 years............

[galeforce1] 11/3/2017 18:05

Cliffo
Maybe that's right. It could be that the fall in the share price is being engineered by VV to make an acquisition of the whole business easier.

To be honest I'm not sure what's going on, but I'm sure something is going on and that there is tension between Renova and the POG BoD.

But like you say Wallywoo, things might become a lot clearer this next week.

[wallywoo] 11/3/2017 15:11

Interesting times next week imo. Either the share price will jump back up or something seriously wrong here. You don't hold marginal gold miners for an easy ride. This dipped last year before rising strongly up to 9p. Let's see what next week brings, though have my finger on the sell button! Results now 5 weeks away too

[cliffo2] 11/3/2017 13:46

My guess is that VV is still after a bigger chunk of this company and that recent trading activity is attempting to set this up.