Petroneft Resources Share Discussion Threads

[seangwhite] 06/11/2014 14:44

Db

It does if you are running a book on the actual date.
But yes in the round it makes very liitle difference, the actual result will hopefully do something for the share price if any good.

VGLTA

[dbarr0n] 06/11/2014 14:10

Sean.. Its a 50/50. Anyway tomorrow or next week, don't think it makes much difference.

[dbarr0n] 06/11/2014 14:06

Granto..
I don't agree with your view regarding the horizontal wells.
Also, This field did not have a water problem before..

[granto2] 06/11/2014 12:57

DbarrOn, when calculating H wells it is not just the development cost, there is a saving ongoing years into the future. PLusits worth mentioning that this oil field has had water problems before, the H well will eliminate much of that issue should it occur.

[seangwhite] 06/11/2014 12:37

Db

Whats the odds on news tomorrow 1/2?
The single trade the other day was interesting, it would be helpful if another entity other than Natlata appeared to show some interest.

VGLTA

[dbarr0n] 06/11/2014 12:00

Granto, If your estimate proved correct it would be of no benifit to do horizontal driling, say a horizontal well costs 2.5 times what a vertical well does they could drill 23 vertical wells for the same cost as driling 6 vertical , 6 horizontal + T5.
23 vertical wells @ say 150 bopd IP on pump = 3450 bopd, granted some of these will be converted to water injectors over time.

6 vertical wells @ 150 bopd = 900 bopd & 6 horizontal @ 350 bopd = 2100 bopd & T5 @ 300 bopd = total of 3300 bopd but the 6 vertical wells will be converted to water injectors soon after.
So no advantage but more risk ?..

[granto2] 05/11/2014 19:09

DBarrOn. I am sure I don't need to explain the complexities of horizontal drilling - this is my estimate and I will stick with it because although large multiples are achievable i am cautious. But yes it could go higher indeed.

2 I get My Information for domestic Oil prices in RF at the St Petersburg Commodities exchange - and while the price of Ural Crude has dropped 25% this year, the domestic price has actually increased by some 10%. I do expect it to drop because there is lots of questions. even today, in Moscow about the same matter, and for quite a while.

GLA

[woodpecker25] 05/11/2014 16:43

I think we can expect some news tomorrow then!

(IMO)

[cfccfc1970] 05/11/2014 15:31

WOW......05/11/2014 15:28:49

PTR 6.00 13,274,279

Feeling confident???

[dbarr0n] 05/11/2014 15:31

Grant.. 1, why do you estimate production to average just 350 bopd which =2100 bopd by the way not 1850, these wells will be 1000 Mtr in length ;T5 is just 300 mtrs .
2, I don't know where you are getting your info about domestic prices v export prices the only difference between them is vat and export taxes and transport costs, cents per barrel up down from month to month so its not worth it to petroneft to change at present as monthly production is not big enough to justify...

[granto2] 05/11/2014 14:27

PTR has fallen in the same line as Gazprom over the last 3 months. The thing is Gazprom export half its oil and PTR zero. seems to me that PTR has been oversold. Prices will weaken on the domestic market but not to the same extent as exports. GLA

[granto2] 05/11/2014 14:10

PTR I menat to type….

[granto2] 05/11/2014 14:09

Domestic oil prices are not effected much because it is subsidized and there is vertical integration, the big companies own the oil fields and the refineries so they cut costs. also it is taxed very lightly compared to the West. so even if the world market doubles, there is only so much you can get locally or domestically and Gazprom call the shots. In short the RF ( russian Fed) will use cash reserves to prop up the economy and will stabilize prices. It will hurt the big companies in a hard way. PRV will be ok, it sells into the Urals West Siberia and thats a good place to be. looking forward PRV hoped to export so that is not so good news.

[sif12] 05/11/2014 13:38

read an article about how Saudis are forcing poo down, politically motivated to hurt Russia and iran as they need a higher oil price to meet their domestic budgets.. so would there be any indirect effect on domestic poo sales?

[granto2] 05/11/2014 12:51

Forecasting. always fun and always difficult but allow me to try. Tyngolskoye will have 12 well is total, 6 Horizontals producing say 350 each (1950Bopd(, Plus 6 verticals producing 125 each. Thats another 750bopd giving us a total of 2700bopd in total. It is a fair estimate but I prefer to be on the safe side and cheer when we get a bit of luck. I have not included dry wells as I expect good results here in the main. But I would be very hopeful the S-373 well will be a decent performer and it will be drilled by the crew in spring. coming together as they say. could not estimate the share price based on the above. By then the entire field could be pumping at least 5000bopd. PTV getting half of that. can't do the sums now, but worth doing….anyone ???

[dbarr0n] 05/11/2014 10:57

If Tungolskoye T-5 is successful it will have a big effect on the share price for there will be several horizontal wells drilled here next year, this field alone could add 3000 -6000 bopd to production over the next 12-18 months.
If it tribled production to 6000 bopd where do people here think the share price will be ?.

[kevjones2] 05/11/2014 09:30

PTR doing ok to hold the share price these last few days. Small Oil (and gas) sector being hit very hard this morning particularly. Not sure about the big guys.

[seangwhite] 05/11/2014 09:17

I dont expect much of a rise in the share price even if Arb result is good.Realisticaly this is going to be a long haul for PTR's management to get into the investing worlds good books.VGLTA

[spudders] 05/11/2014 08:24

No fireworks today for the share price 🚀 at least selling oil to the domestic market is keeping the price stable unlike many other small e&p.

[dbarr0n] 04/11/2014 16:34

I think we will get news on Thursday for well 106, it is most likely completed and is being flow tested at present, we will probably be told at that time that the next well on Arb is drilling ahead.
In my opinion its going to be the 18th before we get news on Tungolskoye T-5.

[oilretire] 04/11/2014 16:28

Ah, oops, sorry. Yeah, it was underway late Sept so yes news soon hopefully. Very rare seeing an oily up today so maybe that's a sign of the AB news ;-)

[granto2] 04/11/2014 16:09

oilretire, thanks for that, we were talking about the Ab106 well and not the T-5 horizontal well you refer to correctly. We are expecting the 106 results any day soon. It was due to be completed at the end of the month, so any day now.

[oilretire] 04/11/2014 15:58

Far too soon for news IMHO.

On 14th Oct they advised:

The process is expected to take approximately 3 to 4 weeks, after which the horizontal section of the well will be tested.

Note, testing time is on top of the horizontal section time. They might provide an update that horizontal section has successfully been completed - which could be any time between today & the 11th - ALL going well. But then we will be waiting for the flow rates......

If they choose to skip that stage & only update after testing is complete we could still be at least a couple of weeks, maybe three away from news.

[granto2] 04/11/2014 15:48

Danny I think we should have news before the week is out, I thought we'd hear by today,