Petro Matad Share Discussion Threads

[pro_s2009] 10/9/2019 12:58

Yes.......and its not a free farm out is it.

PetroChina will be paying to farm in........did you forget that ?

[taxibabe] 10/9/2019 12:56

I think what your forgetting in your calculations PRO is that HERON will be farmed out to petrochina and will only retain a 50% interest at best. That was probably what the delay was with the regional governor who was being pressured by the chinese. My guess is a lot we are not being told here.

[pro_s2009] 10/9/2019 12:36

No expense in rig hire......the rig is moving off site to drill Gazelle. They dont use this rig for flow testing, the rig is for drilling only.

The flow testing equipment is a flow testing rig - aka....the testing rig.

MATD has a history - that history will change when a Block XX well is deemed commercial, and that will only occur when the testing rig has finished testing.

[gunsofmarscapone] 10/9/2019 12:02

Why the poor market response to a discovery? Is it a combination of the, for the moment, equivocal result and an expensive (in rig hire terms) up to 30 day delay for the testing equipment to arrive?

Still watching operations from the fence with a meteorological chart at hand.

[imjustdandy] 10/9/2019 10:12

This is an Aim winner

[pro_s2009] 10/9/2019 10:03

Absolutely ranald, and I believe now based on a delighted Mike Buck and in knowledge that the whole structure is 5M higher up (and further away from any oil/water cut off point) and porosity is better that Heron may be a very significant size, in excess of 40 MMBO recoverable in size.

[pro_s2009] 10/9/2019 09:58

Thanks burtond1


From 13 minutes 10 seconds in for MATD.



.

[ranald] 10/9/2019 09:52

Fair amount of angst here about the lack of movement in the share price - when all the tests on Heron have been completed we will get a fairly accurate reserve estimate which will enable the NAVPS calculation - only then can a determination be made as whether the market is undervaluing or overvaluing the asset via the share price - at the moment everyone here (including myself) have bought an expectation and this is still the current situation.

[burtond1] 10/9/2019 09:41

With the Oil & Gas sector seemingly coming alive @DDS_DocHoliday caught up with independent Oil analyst @mgrahamwood to discuss all the latest News...Companies Covered include : #RRE #ECO #RBD #MATD #BLOE #UJO #ECO #GENL #GKP #CERP #TRIN #RRL #PXOG #HURhttps://total-market-solutions.com/2019/09/10/malcy-talks-oil-gas-xiv/

[2solaris] 10/9/2019 08:02

Loon alert on the other thread!

[imjustdandy] 10/9/2019 07:48

Through 10p shortly.

[ken chung] 10/9/2019 07:44

Down it goes.

[pro_s2009] 10/9/2019 06:52

Hi Spangle, yes Gazelle was always rated at over 50% and now that Heron-1 has proven they seem to know the geology quite well, it might be nearer 75% now.

Its only small, but they are quite confident on it and in effect its the back up well that should Heron have failed and Red Deer fail - they would have at least one more very high CoS shot at getting a producing well to move Block XX into the commercialization phase of the license.

Looks like Heron has already done that, pending flow test, and so Gazelle is just a nice little earner that on success will form part of the PetroChina farm in deal I guess.

Anything 2 MMBO recoverable or over in size is very commercial onshore Mongolia.

[pro_s2009] 10/9/2019 04:50

Also if you take the 2 key upsides from what Mike has said :

Heron-1 reservoir appears to have better porosity than pre-drill estimates.

Heron-1 pay zones were encountered 5 meters shallower than pre-drill estimates.


Better porosity means the whole structure can contain more oil - higher porosity means more oil inside.

5 meters shallower means over the structure there is more oil bearing reservoir potential at the boundaries.


Those 2 key things mean that Heron may well be over 40 MMBO recoverable in size, not the Pmean estimate pre-drill of 25 MMBO.

The other key thing was permeability was better than expected, that should mean flow is not an issue and the reservoir will be able to produce at higher rates than the PetroChina wells to the North.


We know that reservoir properties get better as you go West....looks like they also get better as you go South. Gazelle is further West, and Red Deer-1 is South-West of Heron.

[pro_s2009] 10/9/2019 04:23

Hi Spangle, I think there is not enough big holders for MATD given their chequered past. That past is going to hang like a mill stone around their neck until they have a proven commercial well in Block XX.

Once that is done and confidence returns then all the stock slushing around will get snapped up for the bargain it is - and so begins the rerating.

I think from what Mike has said in interviews and committing now to drill Velociraptor that he is in effect saying he is totally confident Heron-1 will be commercial.

So we have a step change in MATD coming when that is confirmed with the testing rig.

Red Deer-1....Mike says to Upstreamonline all geology is as predicted and no surprises so far and that is positive - so I would suggest rig issues and not perhaps downhole ?

If Heron-1 is commercial, the current share price is a steal - everything depends on whether you trust Heron-1 to flow or not. I trust it.

As an investor, you look to risk against reward. Currently the risk with MATD is greatly reduced provided Heron-1 flows and the rewards if Block XX South or the Raptors come in is staggering. I know where I am looking to add more.

[spangle93] 10/9/2019 01:48

Thanks for the upstream version, Pro. You must have deep pockets to subscribe to that, but I think it's the best industry source of data

Equipment problems could be rig, or downhole - my take is the latter.

Wonder why we finished flat but ECO soared. Maybe they have takeout premium and we don't? Hard to conceive why, if we are updip with better properties from what we're told is a producer, it wouldn't deliver at least those same rates on test

[big brother8] 09/9/2019 21:12

I did tell the jackoffs I was sucking them in the slaughterhouse.

[alistair4444] 09/9/2019 19:07

Thanks Pro for your Upstreamonline.com Mike Buck update, surprised share price open up 30% & ending down 0.3%

[pro_s2009] 09/9/2019 18:51

Yes, if the Red Deer-1 rig goes off there they can spud mid October and be complete....as in Block V area the weather is milder as was proven last year drilling Wild Horse. They can drill well into November and early December even over in Blocks IV and V.

It really does ooooooooooze confidence that Mike is doing this, to me, this says....Heron-1 is commercial and better than expected.