Perform Share Discussion Threads

[stegrego] 22/11/2007 20:30

Anyone notice that nearly ever stock on here, that were already stupidly cheap are nearly all at or near lows of year and still falling....

If they were cheap before then i dont know what they are now.

If anyone had bought a basket of all the stocks mentioned in July/Aug, then id say they would be around 30-40% down now!

Nice

[aleman] 05/11/2007 22:40

Sorted. Forgot - results are 3 weeks on Thursday.

[stegrego] 05/11/2007 22:37

you playing 'guess the company' above Aleman?? ;)

[aleman] 05/11/2007 22:35

tara7 - WAGN doesn't qualify for PP because it had a warning a while back but recent interim trading update was inline with orders slightly ahead. There was also some good news on lending facilities and sale and leaseback of factories to help the very weak balance sheet. ABN kept profit forecast the same but lifted earnings recently for some reason to give the following at 26.25p where there were signs of a bit of a bottom forming:

2008 2009
Broker Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS(p) DPS(p) Pre-tax(£) EPS(p) DPS(p)
ABN AMRO 29-10-07 BUY 14.00 8.78 4.00 20.90 13.02 5.00
PE Prospective (x) 2.99 2.02

Today's bad market has pushed it lower so the p/e's are now 2.90 and 1.96. Final dividend was cut to 1p last year when it could have been omitted altogether. It is forecast to yield 15.7% then 19.6% at today's 25.5p. It has been shorted quite a bit due to the weak balance sheet following merger write-offs. Both Wagon and Oxford had decent profit and cashflow ahead of the merger. Is there cheaper (granted it seems risky)?

[scburbs] 05/11/2007 20:55

CCT results last week. One of the minority on the list to be showing good gains from the initial price above.

"Continuing Business (Toys, Games and Gifts)
2007 2006
Turnover £94.5m £69.5m +36%
Operating profit £12.1m £6.9m +74%
Earnings per share - basic 17.93p 8.36p +115%

The new financial year has started well, with our Christmas 2007 offering
already having achieved a wider distribution base than for the previous
Christmas. With the addition of new brands to our portfolio and the continued
growth we envisage to our existing brands, we are confident of achieving a
further satisfactory financial year in 2008."



Broker response was an immediate upgrade to 20.98p for the current year ended 31 August 2008 and a 250p target.

So a prospective P/E of under 10 together with the following comment from Charles Stanley: "... we believe we have taken a conservative view on Character's prospects, leaving scope for upgrades as the year progresses. .... Should Christmas trading lead to upgrades in January we would expect to revise the target [250p] upwards at that point."

Last year they upgraded their forecasts repeatedly as CCT continually smashed them. At the equivalent time last year [28/11/06] they had an eps forecast for the year just ended of 10.64p which does look a tad conservative beside the outturn of 17.93p!

[tara7] 05/11/2007 18:30

can someone post up the 10 lowest pe shares in the market today. ie pe"s of 3 or 4. thanks

[liarspoker] 05/11/2007 18:24

APC & CRPR results this month. Both on single digit P/E's and PEGs of about .23 going forward.

[saucepan] 05/11/2007 16:46

The following is a copy of my post made on the Creston (CRE) thread. I am posting it here as it seems to fit the criteria:

. . . there is a stock that I think is worth drawing to attention: Creston (CRE).

I have just gone long myself today at 111p.

Creston first came onto my radar last December when I bought the 200p breakout as a low-PEG play/52-week high play. I sold after a few days for a small loss after the 200p breakout failed.

I have kept the stock on my watchlist ever since, only to watch the share price slide relentlessly. (So, it was a good move to get out when I did!) However, on the basis of available information, the shares now look ridiculously cheap, IMHO. They were cheap enough at 200p!

Here are some fundamentals:

Profit (£m)
2004 2.09
2005 2.59
2006 4.72
2007 8.28
2008 (F) 15.91
2009 (F) 17.22

Turnover (£m)

2004 29.45
2005 35.87
2006 81.47
2007 117.62
2008 (F) 138.87
2009 (F) 148.86

EPS (p)

2004 9.02
2005 6.91
2006 7.55
2007 9.27
2008 (F) 16.72
2009 (F) 18.4

Other

Projected P/E: 6.52 !!!
Rolling PEG-1: 0.21 !!!
Projected Yield 2.66%
Beta: 0.21
Cap (£m): £60.7
Brokers Consensus: "Buy"
Investors Chronicle View (15 June 2007, when at 180p): "Buy"

It looks, to me, like the share price has recently double bottomed at 106p. I have placed my current stops around 95p. I find it hard to believe that 100p levels will fail, unless there is unexpected bad news.

But what is the company saying?

Importantly, Creston is due to release its Interim Results on Friday 30 November .

Here is the full pre-close trading statement.


27 September 2007

Creston plc

Pre-close trading statement


Creston plc, the Insight and Communications Group, issues the following trading
update for the six month period to 30 September 2007 in advance of announcing
its interim results on 30 November.

The Board has been pleased with the number and size of the new business wins,
which have demonstrated the quality and industry standing of the Group
companies. New client wins across the Group include Alton Towers, Capital One,
Freeview, GlaxoSmithKline, Intercontinental Hotels Group, Pricerunner.co.uk,
Royal Mail, Smart cars and Telstra.

In addition to these wins, there have been major new project and brand wins from
existing clients such as AstraZeneca, Capital Radio, Infinti from Nissan, direct
marketing consultancy for Numico in Austria and Thailand, Opel, Roche, Sainsbury
Bank from Sainsbury's, Slim Fast from Unilever, Vauxhall, and Sunbites from
Walkers Crisps.

Cross-selling between Creston's operating companies has also been very
successful in the period with new projects being won from several clients
including AstraZeneca, Morrisons, Servier, Stihl and Toshiba.

The Board is confident that the wins will maintain a similar like for like
revenue growth that was reported at 12% for the first quarter.

Digital and on-line projects continue to grow as a proportion of revenues and we
have increased our investment in specialist staff to match this development.
This necessary investment will have a very minor impact on first half operating
margin.

The balance sheet is strong and we have substantial unutilised bank facilities.
The Board retains the flexibility to settle earn out liabilities predominantly
in cash and loan notes rather than the issue of shares, as was demonstrated in
the settlement of the two earn outs in June of this year, which were 100% in
loan notes.

The Group has continued to perform well in the first half of the year
demonstrating its ability to deliver growth as a diversified Insight and
Communications Group. The new business pipeline continues to be strong with
major pitches planned across all companies and we are confident that our
successful pitch to win ratio will ensure a positive impact for the rest of the
financial year.

What clinched the trade for me is the fact that the MACD is showing important positive divergence (which shows up rather more convincingly on my ShareScope Graphs than the chart posted below). Hopefully, the share price will soon follow.

1-year with MACD:


Having placed my own stops just below 100p, I am risking about 15%.

If the trend reverses up to, and in consequence of, market pleasing results, I see no reason why the shareprice could not climb quite quickly back to previous highs: a potential gain in excess of 75%. That seems to me a great risk/reward ratio.

Please DYOR.

[lonrho] 22/10/2007 17:01

how about paragon p/e of less than 4,trading statement for full year states in line,shorters think its going bust but it has net assets well in excess of current market cap of 270m,at the interims cash in hand of over a billion and it also has unused borrowing facilities of 1.8billion.

[tole] 20/10/2007 15:10

Noticed GETM added here recently - one i've had on the monitor a while now. Not religiously been following all the going ons with this one - but the last broker update does indicate some good potential in the German market on the back of the Telefonica investment.

Getmobile - GETM (Add, Closing Price €0.39)

O2 unveils investment plans for the German market
Analyst: Dan Cavanagh

At an Analyst Day in London yesterday, Telefonica, the Spanish owners of O2 mobile, set out its growth and investment forecasts across its European operations. To facilitate the introduction of the next generation of handset devices, the company committed to spending €3.5bn across Europe, the bulk of which will be directed towards Germany.

Due to the current limited technical capacity, Telefonica believes Germany offers significant growth opportunities and will be looking to grow market share and revenue over the next three years.

In relation to getmobile, who operates in the market as the leading online portal for mobile phones contracts, the introduction of a new technology will increase the level of customer churn, which plays into the hands of getmobile.

[papalpower] 20/10/2007 01:09

Greek,

As riv notes, the PER is a little too high presently ;)

[rivaldo] 19/10/2007 23:21

GI, don't wind PP up, you'll only get him going again! No way will GNG qualify this year, though they might next year depending on upgrades - but then this is a thread based purely on very cheap P/E's, not on PEGs, assets relative to m/cap, cash piles, low m/caps or potential. His thoughts and various others (including mine) have already been outlined on JTC's thread here FYI:

[greek islander] 19/10/2007 18:20

PP

After the recent pretty sensational results, I would have thought that Geong (which you know) GNG would qualify?

[turkey3] 18/10/2007 13:54

cheers pp.

[papalpower] 18/10/2007 13:50

Not yet on RCG, I am not convinced the seller has finished selling yet, and that drags down on the share price

If I saw signs the seller was finished, I would certainly buy some.

CHL, not looked at that one, will have a browse.

[turkey3] 18/10/2007 13:48

U not liking rcg group pp??(just bought some today, like the graph) plus what do u think about CHL? should have a jorc out by jan, which could send it 2 the moon... cheers.

[papalpower] 16/10/2007 16:15

Thanks simon, I'll have a look at the weekend.

[simon gordon] 16/10/2007 16:09

PP,

I suggest RBS be added.

2008 yield is now higher than the P/E.

[brwo349] 16/10/2007 00:04

UVEL is too cheap for words.
PER of 4 this year!!!

[radarlove] 15/10/2007 15:22

scburbs,

Good luck with your investment. UVEL is one of those shares which could either take off during the next 6 months or may simply go nowhere.

The AGM is on October 29th, so this may be the next catalyst for an upward move.

Fingers crossed.

[scburbs] 15/10/2007 13:08

Thanks Radarlove, Interesting posts re: UVEL. I have made two small acquisitions totalling 150,000 shares today.

[radarlove] 15/10/2007 10:21

Thanks for adding UVEL.