Pennon Share Discussion Threads

[optomistic] 29/11/2012 11:06

APPAD

I also am looking to buy back into PNN, sound company with good returns but as you say timing is the key, for me I will wait for the outcome of OFWAT and some stability in the recycling area.

opto

[apad] 29/11/2012 10:40

If anything the EfW argument in the interims is underplayed. Note that Viridor benefits from the low interest rates of the group.

opto
I think that the heyday of recyclate prices is gone for good. We were buying so much from China that the containers were going back for nothing and the chinese would buy regardless of quality.

It looks as if PNN are managing the decline well.

2014 Offwat review is the key to timing. I expect 2013 to be artificially subdued.

I'm looking to double my holding at some point.

apad

[optomistic] 28/11/2012 15:11

MIATA, thanks for the figure but reduced prices still have an effect on the bottom line, I will wait for recyclate prices to improve before re entering Pennon

[miata] 28/11/2012 14:45

Salpara111
There is an elephant in the room that no one seems to have picked up on

Read the thread and the header.

Optimistic

Recycling accounts for just 12% of Pennon's EBIT.

[optomistic] 28/11/2012 13:29

Salpara111

"They do seem to have been hit a lot harder than the other water companies."

Pennon is not just a water company, it is very involved in recycling which at the moment is not doing as well as it did with the recyclate prices being weak.
I used to hold but won't do again until the recyclable waste prices increase.
Good company being held back with this, also of course OFWAT has yet to let the water cos know what they are to be allowed to charge for the next few(?) years.

[salpara111] 28/11/2012 13:17

Had a look at these the other day.
There is an elephant in the room that no one seems to have picked up on......If the share price remains around the current level for the next 4 weeks then they will lose their FTSE 100 place.
They do seem to have been hit a lot harder than the other water companies.
I will keep an eye on them but suspect the share price will remain under pressure for the next few weeks.

[miata] 26/11/2012 12:16

Thanks for that list. Only useful comparable deletion I could see was SVT on 20/12/99.

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 26/11/2012 11:25

MIATA

I have had look at ppn sept 09 (pnn shuffled out) against ftse and other stocks leaving ftse at the same time and I cant see any obvious decline vs ftse. this is without knowing all the details of each company at the the time.
I would imagine the trackers have all ready sold in anticipation of the reshuffle.

You may find this link helpful. It lists the ftse ins and outs since 1984.


APAD

My inner chimp is in chains lol

[apad] 26/11/2012 11:09

The Tintins will have lots of negatives to write about PNN in the coming year.
My inner chimp is in chains.
apad

[miata] 26/11/2012 10:18

Re FTSE review, what you have to look at is PNN relative to UKX; that is you can't just look at whether or not PNN continued to fall without taking in whether UKX rose.

You might also review the trajectory of other companies that have fallen out of the FTSE.

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 26/11/2012 09:41

APAD
Sorry , my mistake. I was looking at the FTSE reshuffle/review etc.
Will have another look.

Cheers

[apad] 26/11/2012 09:35

My memory from the last review (I bought prior to the "deal")is that the price was depressed relative to the market and that after the "deal' was announced it gradually became clear that the water companies had the best of the argument because of the regulator's assumptions about borrowing costs.
It needs some proper analysis though.
apad

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 26/11/2012 09:03

Yes, I think I will.
cheers

One other thing to add. the current flooding, however temporary, will not be helpful to a water business and this may effect the price negatively in the short term.

sit on my hands time.

[miata] 26/11/2012 08:53

"I am looking to get in here asap but I might be being a bit greedy in waiting."

Keep waiting.

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 26/11/2012 08:46

Hi APAD

I am struggling to find any large, definite effect on the share price from previous reviews. perhaps im missing something.
I am looking to get in here asap but I might be being a bit greedy in waiting.

cheers

[apad] 23/11/2012 13:47

I think it must in the short term tlst.
Pressure on recyclate prices and a review in the offing.
I have a large holding (for me). I think it must be under pressure all next year.
It might be worth researching the price pattern pre and post the last review.
apad

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 23/11/2012 13:25

thanks for the graphs
I guess you can earn good dividens and capital gains at the same time.
thanks for the heads up with MAI. Although I am trying to move away from small cap companies. Main reasons being the spread and volatility.
I do fancy ccl but will wait for a decline in the price first.

I'm waiting to get some PNN. Not sure if i'm being to greedy and thinking the price may fall further?
Please dont think this is a deramp I doubt very very much any comments made on here will effect the price in PNN.

Kind regards
thelong

[miata] 22/11/2012 21:02

I am in GSK and over the years it has been a source of disappointment and I have had to work it (in and out) too much.

I have had Sage for over a decade, steady, safe even (at these post millenium levels) but uninspiring unless someone decides to take it over, which I personally think is unlikely. Their products are quite good in a middle of the road sort of way, but relatively unsophisticated compared with say SAP. What this means is the margins on their maintenance revenues can't be as high.

On the subject of maintenance revenues underpinning a business take a look at MAIntel - maintenance revenues underpinned by legal requirements. (A little recent indigestion on taking over a competitor will pass).

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 22/11/2012 20:50

MIATA
Thanks for your reply.
lots to look at there.
If you like your quarterly payers gsk is currently around its 52 week low.

Re PNN would you think the index trackers would all ready of sold due to upcoming ftse reshuffle. I was going to wait but it struck me they are probably already out and its in the price. what do you think?

one for you to consider is sage. not the greatest dividend though. around 3%
check out these stats:

rising dividend
stable income
rising eps
falling debt
huge margins

Would be grateful for your opinion on sge.

Cheers

[miata] 22/11/2012 19:56

Good research, you are right. You may have noticed BA.,BLND,BLT,BP.,BSY,BT.A,CCL,HSBA,IGG,ISF,PNN,RDSB,SUK2,SVT,T514,
TR25,XOM ETC.

In addition I do punt on some of the high performance relative newcomers to the FTSE100, see ITRK (See my FTSE thread for graphs of whatever of these I am looking at).

We are presaging a difficult time at the moment with the US 'fiscal cliff' likely to mean US punters selling winners (including UK large caps) before the end of the year to realise gains at their current low cgt rates. SUK2 at the right level can be insurance against this (see thread).

RDSB is comparatively cheap for a fairly high yield quarterly dividend megacap (affected by low US gas prices caused by shale gas), HSBA has fairly high yield quarterly dividend and some upside both near term and long term. Diageo continues its slow steady rise (I'm still hoping for a drop), SABrew, Prudential, Reckitt, Unilever, Imperial Tobacco, RollsRoyce, Scottish&Southern, Severn Trent and Vodafone are all on my watch list for adding to at an appropriate time.

I have a large holding of BAT which has both capital growth and high increasing dividends.

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 22/11/2012 19:10

MIATA

I have been thinking of moving my investment strategy toward larger cap and dividend paying companies.
While doing some researh on advfn I notice your name associated with many boards of high yield
Can I assume you have a large cap, dividend paying company focus and if you do, can you offer any advice?

Kind regards
thelong

[miata] 21/11/2012 14:03

RBC Capital markets:

[Recently] we noted that more likely than not, given the level of discretion these proposals will grant Ofwat and the potential for a lower level of cash flow predictability in the sector, at least one of the 21 water companies if not majority/all in concert) will reject Ofwat's proposals and this could force the issue to be resolved by the competition commission.

Ofwat, however, released a clarification document yesterday where it welcomed constructive responses and proposals on how to address any concerns. This is a softer tone and suggests that there may be a middle ground here.

JP Morgan:

The softening of Ofwat's stance on a competition commission referral reduces the near-term risk of negative newsflow and highlights how important a consensus driven outcome is to this process. (This) should help reassure the market that UK water regulation remains sensible and proportionate.

[miata] 21/11/2012 12:47

Ofwat clarified proposed changes to water companies' licences.

"The softening of Ofwat's stance on a Competition Commission referral reduces the near-term risk of negative newsflow," said analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

PNN currently up 0.8% but SVT did better up 1.6%.

[miata] 20/11/2012 15:30

Contrarian indicator, well thats one way of looking at it!

Research opportunity:
Review what happened re in/out FTSE100 (09/09/09, 29/06/12).

eg volume on 28/06/12, the day before FTSE100 entry, was a massive 8,389,600, about ten times normal volume.

One might speculate on the possibility of a say 6% drop (say 35p) on exit (or the next OpEx date), the extent to which this is priced in already is the unknowable, nevertheless 670p would be a sell.

[ohisay] 20/11/2012 15:05

Couple of things I've noticed.

1.Short interest lowest for a few months?



Scroll down right hand side and put PNN in search box.

2.Barchart contrarian ? indicator.