Peninsular Gold Share Discussion Threads

[captain_crash_and_burn] 23/8/2013 10:45

Is there anyone still out there? This company is top of my list for my next move, just need one of my other shares to bloom and then I'll move me coppers into this. I traded this successfully around 40p (in hindsight it ,ay have been a tad overpriced then but the current share price and corresponding mcap seems completely wrong!)

[timgw] 11/8/2013 19:06

I suppose we have to wait for annual results to hear anything about the fourth quarter. Communication does not seem to be their strong point!

[aleoap] 05/7/2013 19:56

Some interesting general stats on gold and gold shares I regularly collate. Total market cap value of all London listed gold miners reduced month on month from Oct 2012 at a then worth of £24 billion to end of June 2013 with a worth of £11 billion. Month on month consistent decline.

Gold itself outperformed stocks each month bar May 2013. Overall of course holding both you generally would have taken a hit.

July mtd is so far showing the first positive indicator with gold stocks up 0.7% and gold, yet again outperforming shares, with an increase of 0.9%.

I would wager that if gold itself were now to reverse and move back up significantly, gold stocks should outperform gold due to (with producers) their higher leverage. Of course if gold were to drop to $1000 from here, holding some miners would be disastrous. Timing as always is key.

With regards PGL, even though it may not feel like it, they have moved up in my 'league table' due to the abysmal performance of other previously higher rated peers. Companies like HUM, VGM, OMI, BGL, NYO for example.

This just needs a little bit of good news, heck they have the potential for transformational news, could do wonders for this quite illiquid share.

[aleoap] 12/6/2013 12:42

Positives

Tonnage throughput upto 1.3mtpa from 1.1mtpa previous quarter
Mobile crusher unit installed and commissioned allows oversized material from in-situ oxide ore (higher grade)
Chunchok significant potential for small but high to very high grade mineralisation

Question marks

No mention of Raub resource update/drilling commencing H2 2013
Still quite a way to go to the capacity of 2mtpa expected with the new plant

[aleoap] 12/6/2013 12:31

Jan 2010 954oz from 90,000t = 0.33g/t
Feb 2010 954oz from 90,000t = 0.33g/t
Mar 2010 954oz from 90,000t = 0.33g/t
Apr 2010 954oz from 90,000t = 0.33g/t
May 2010 1438oz from 90,000t = 0.49g/t
Jun 2010 1618oz from 90,000t = 0.56g/t
Jul 2010 1880oz from 105,000t = 0.56g/t
Aug 2010 1287oz from 82,504t = 0.48g/t
Sep 2010 1043oz from 83,420t = 0.39g/t
Oct 2010 1629oz from 113,580t = 0.45g/t
Nov 2010 1447oz from 112,681t = 0.40g/t
Dec 2010 1447oz from 112,681t = 0.40g/t
Jan 2011 1187oz from 93,075t = 0.40g/t
Feb 2011 1187oz from 93,075t = 0.40g/t
Mar 2011 1187oz from 93,075t = 0.40g/t
Apr 2011 1390oz from 114,339t = 0.38g/t
May 2011 1390oz from 114,339t = 0.38g/t
Jun 2011 1390oz from 114,339t = 0.38g/t
Jul 2011 1231oz from 116,248t = 0.33g/t
Aug 2011 1232oz from 116,248t = 0.33g/t
Sep 2011 1232oz from 116,248t = 0.33g/t
Oct 2011 975oz from 81,112t = 0.37g/t
Nov 2011 975oz from 81,112t = 0.37g/t
Dec 2011 976oz from 81,112t = 0.37g/t
Jan 2012 1621oz from 50,776t = 0.99g/t
Feb 2012 1787oz from 57,133t = 0.97g/t
Mar 2012 1913oz from 66,023t = 0.90g/t
Apr 2012 2550oz from 93,390t = 0.85g/t
May 2012 1804oz from 80,805t = 0.69g/t
Jun 2012 1804oz from 80,805t = 0.69g/t
Jul 2012 2002oz from 99,000t = 0.63g/t
Aug 2012 2003oz from 99,000t = 0.63g/t
Sep 2012 2003oz from 99,000t = 0.63g/t
Oct 2012 1899oz from 95,000t = 0.62g/t
Nov 2012 1899oz from 95,000t = 0.62g/t
Dec 2012 1899oz from 95,000t = 0.62g/t

Jan 2013 1585oz from 111,666t = 0.44g/t
Feb 2013 1586oz from 111,667t = 0.44g/t
Mar 2013 1586oz from 111,667t = 0.44g/t

[aleoap] 10/4/2013 19:51

Found this from 28th March - a Daniel Stewart note:


Interim results
Peninsula Gold provides an operational update and interim results to 31 December 2012.

Gold production for the six month period rose by 76.8% to 11,705oz Au from 6,621oz Au in the prior period in 2011.

The increase in production was acheived on higher throughput of tonnage material, blended from both the tailings and in-situ shallow ore.

For the period, the Raub mine achieved an average gold price of US$1,728/oz Au up from US$1,661/oz Au at an exchange rate of 1.61, with cash cost contained at US$930/zo Au.

[aleoap] 27/3/2013 19:52

Management do frustrate here though, in the previous results we were told:

'At Raub a number of new drilling targets below the oxide zone have been identified and these will be drilled in Calendar Year ("CY") Q1 2013.'

Now we are told it won't start until H2 2013. I might have missed something but I would be focusing solely on the oxide zone, completing a Raub resource update as we have not had one since 2008, and getting the plant upto 50k pa. Forget the NLA for now.

[horndean eagle] 27/3/2013 10:11

Results seemed ok but given management's track record am in no rush to buy any more. Need consistency before that position will change.

[aleoap] 27/3/2013 09:37

Jan 2010 954oz from 90,000t = 0.33g/t
Feb 2010 954oz from 90,000t = 0.33g/t
Mar 2010 954oz from 90,000t = 0.33g/t
Apr 2010 954oz from 90,000t = 0.33g/t
May 2010 1438oz from 90,000t = 0.49g/t
Jun 2010 1618oz from 90,000t = 0.56g/t
Jul 2010 1880oz from 105,000t = 0.56g/t
Aug 2010 1287oz from 82,504t = 0.48g/t
Sep 2010 1043oz from 83,420t = 0.39g/t
Oct 2010 1629oz from 113,580t = 0.45g/t
Nov 2010 1447oz from 112,681t = 0.40g/t
Dec 2010 1447oz from 112,681t = 0.40g/t
Jan 2011 1187oz from 93,075t = 0.40g/t
Feb 2011 1187oz from 93,075t = 0.40g/t
Mar 2011 1187oz from 93,075t = 0.40g/t
Apr 2011 1390oz from 114,339t = 0.38g/t
May 2011 1390oz from 114,339t = 0.38g/t
Jun 2011 1390oz from 114,339t = 0.38g/t
Jul 2011 1231oz from 116,248t = 0.33g/t
Aug 2011 1232oz from 116,248t = 0.33g/t
Sep 2011 1232oz from 116,248t = 0.33g/t
Oct 2011 975oz from 81,112t = 0.37g/t
Nov 2011 975oz from 81,112t = 0.37g/t
Dec 2011 976oz from 81,112t = 0.37g/t
Jan 2012 1621oz from 50,776t = 0.99g/t
Feb 2012 1787oz from 57,133t = 0.97g/t
Mar 2012 1913oz from 66,023t = 0.90g/t
Apr 2012 2550oz from 93,390t = 0.85g/t
May 2012 1804oz from 80,805t = 0.69g/t
Jun 2012 1804oz from 80,805t = 0.69g/t
Jul 2012 2002oz from 99,000t = 0.63g/t
Aug 2012 2003oz from 99,000t = 0.63g/t
Sep 2012 2003oz from 99,000t = 0.63g/t

Oct 2012 1899oz from 95,000t = 0.62g/t
Nov 2012 1899oz from 95,000t = 0.62g/t
Dec 2012 1899oz from 95,000t = 0.62g/t

So slightly down on previous quarter..

[aleoap] 27/3/2013 09:32

Got to agree SBT. It looks like it's starting to come together now. I noticed borrowing too, net current liabilities decreased from £19.4m in June 2012 to £6.6m in Dec 2012. Longer term borrowings increased but management of cash looks reasonable to me. Although cash is £135k inventories and receivables are approx £5m, including ore stockpiles. I'll try and work out monthly production in a moment.

[superbobtaylor] 27/3/2013 09:14

Results out. They look excellent to me.

- Company making annualised £4.2M (after tax) against MCAP of just £16. This is record profit.
- EPS 4.92p
- Net borrowing has descreased by ~£2M (and been moved to Non-Current which is good).

The later point is massive as previously we had seen a year on year increase.

It would be nice if they broke down the monthly production. I get the impression it is probably falling as they introduce tailings back into the mix. What they need to do now is increase the capacity.

SBT

[aleoap] 22/3/2013 14:54

To be honest it's a poorly written article. They mention production 'from 18,000 ounces a year to somewhere in the region of 24,000 ounces this year'

Yet we know in July, August and September 2012 they were producing 2000oz per month - equivalent of 24k.

Then we have 'That all adds up to an overall potential resource of nearly 380,000 ounces.'.

Well we know overall JORC is 577,200oz.

But yes, the comments at the bottom are strange..

'The company's current Aim rating rules out equity funding just now for a Northern Licence Area campaign, according to Watson. That is why a separate NLA float is one possibility under review.
And on the chances of a Peninsular de-listing, Watson comments "all things are possible". It'll be an interesting year.'

It's not rocket science to see that IF they can get the brand new 2mtpa plant working as it should at Raub then 50k pa is possible. If done then the subsequent rerating of its aim share price will allow them to pursue the NLA. The Raub resource has not had an update since the middle of 2008! The value here is in Raub, NLA has disappointed so far imo.

[superbobtaylor] 20/3/2013 20:13

Thanks for posting, not sure what to make of the comments re. taking the co. private and spinning off a venture....

SBT

[aleoap] 18/3/2013 12:24

Ken Deter

General Manager Processing at Raub Australian Gold Mining

General Manager Processing
Raub Australian Gold Mining
2013 – Present (less than a year)Malaysia

Manage operations and maintenance at a gold mining facility in Malaysia
Plant Manager
Azerbaijan International Mining Company
December 2011 – January 2013 (1 year 2 months)Gedabek, Azerbaijan

Gold - Copper - Silver heap leach Plant Manager
Kumtor Operating Company, Centerra Gold Inc.
Mill Manager
Kumtor Operating Company, Centerra Gold Inc.
May 2010 – September 2011 (1 year 5 months)Kyrgyzstan

MillManager at a gold - silver plant processing 17,000 tpd ore and producing over 560,000 ounces of gold per year

[aleoap] 12/2/2013 13:00

Well any positive news now should see us back to 30p. Current limits are positive, can sell 77,500 shares at 20.5p and max buy through hx is 17,500 shares.

Looks like the Faraday followers are keen to buy more at these prices..

[herges adventures of tymtym] 10/2/2013 19:29

thanks aleoap

[superbobtaylor] 10/2/2013 19:21

Thanks, now things appear to be turning around we really could do with some more regular updates.

SBT

[aleoap] 10/2/2013 19:07

SBT - No. I either get a response immediately or not for a few weeks. Although I cut out the admin team and go straight to the fin director. I'll update if I hear from them.

Herges - it looks like you've done a good deal of research there and certainly have an investment case. Unfortunately I have little to no interest in Flourspar and my only dealing was with MMS where I had a small investment. It was then suspended and I was able to sell at 100% profit on the morning of re-admission as FLOR. The share price then collapsed but has since recovered somewhat. I'm not sure why I invested in MMS to start with.

I'm sticking to what I know with regards to gold and oil explorers/producers.

[herges adventures of tymtym] 10/2/2013 12:53

aleoap

If you have your research head on could you take a look at my post on the CNR thread please ?

[superbobtaylor] 10/2/2013 11:08

Any luck with the email aleop?

[aleoap] 06/2/2013 11:39

If Faraday do have many followers then this rise may be simply down to their note and subsequent purchases. It's a relatively illiquid stock so large moves like this are quite normal with sustained buying/selling.

Faraday would have completed due diligence prior to their research note being made public to subscribers, which at the very minimum would have involved detailed discussions with management, maybe incluing a site visit.

Definitely a good sign. I might fire an email off and see what update is due.

[aleoap] 06/2/2013 11:21

Halifax are allowing max buy of 7500 shares at 23.5p. Anything over goes to negotiated trade.

[aleoap] 06/2/2013 11:06

Maybe Cesar Puspos has sprinkled some magic dust haha..(Bre-X)

I'm looking forward to Raub resource update..see my earlier post below..not had an update since 2008 although we have had plenty of assay results since..

'RAUB
At the time of listing (June 05) total identified resources at Raub comprised of a proven reserve of 180,000oz held in tailings and inferred resource of 59,000oz in East Lode shallow oxides.
15 May 06 - Inferred resource increased by 81% to 107,000oz gold.
13 Jul 06 - Inferred resource increased by 26% to 135,000oz gold.
8 Jan 07 - East Lode now at 213,000oz gold (Measured, Indicated and Inferred)
27 Sep 07 - Tailings proved ore reserves increased 12% to 202,000oz gold.
3 Jun 08 - 136,000oz in measured & indicated (previously 52,000oz) at East Lode

11 Nov 11 - Additional 21,800oz of indicated resource in tailings

So, since 3rd June 2008, the resource outside the old tailings has not had an update. Although as per all the RNS's in the almost 4 years passed we have had plenty of assay results and exploration. It will be very interesting to see what the last four years of drilling actually means in actual reserve upgrade.

Currently in East Lode:
Measured 62,000
Indicated 74,000
Inferred 82,000

Tailings:
Proved 202,000
Indicated 37,200'

[jewellsrimet] 06/2/2013 11:01

Tim, Faraday aren't a broker. They are a 100% independent researcher who rely on subscriptions from members. And to be honest, usually their recommendations do not have a significant effect on the share price straight away. I feel this isn't all related to the Faraday report.....