Peninsular Gold Share Discussion Threads

[aleoap] 15/1/2012 18:59

News from PGL on the legal case looks promising, although I have no doubts that it will all be thrown out anyway in view of the high standing position of the board and its royalty shareholders. Now can we please have some real news, some real progress and some real $$ generated from increased production levels.

AIM chart looks to be playing out how I thought, struggling to take out the 736 level, although it spent a little time over it the upward momentum looks to be exhausted at this time. Expect a drop back, sideways movement then another push and if it can't get over (we will need QE3) then that H&S could play out. Hearing March 2012 QE3 could be on the cards but lets wait and see.

Loftus, most of my money went into bricks and mortar as you recall, consistent income from this has been invaluable. My PM's have shown a modest return also, with shares being the least profitable investment this past year. My partner would love to own a farm or two, she has plenty of horses and I'm sure would love to open the curtains in the morning and see them all out in the open fields. I think the key is what you mention, being able to utilise the land, something of which I have no experience. I heard somewhere, Jim Rogers or Sinclair can't remember which, saying in the future farmers will be driving ferrari's and multi-millionaires, what with ever increasing inflation and a lack of skills in the industry.

Thanks for your thoughts

[loftus16] 09/1/2012 22:18

Sorry for o/t. Aleoap, some food for thought above and much coincides with my own views. The Euro continues to be problematic and must be allowed to fizzle out. I have always maintained that given Europe's present political structure a single currency has too many tensions pulling it in too many directions.

In the 30's the price of gold and the dow went into backwardation. There are a few who think this could occur again. Some upheaval that would create.

I recall your desire to invest in bricks and mortar. Have you considered agricultural land? There is a limited and finite supply although some might find it a little illiquid. I am a farmer and so am able physically to utilise land whilst also benefiting from its store of value. There is nothing to compare with looking out over fields knowing they are yours.

Just a few thoughts.

[aleoap] 07/1/2012 13:34

Going back to 'where do you keep your wealth' I'd be interested to know others views on this. If your like me and think the current monetary system is seriously flawed then gold seems like the answer. The problem here is the current monetary system requires printing/inflation to survive. There is never enough money in the system to pay off previous debt issued. Once deflation sets in without printing the system implodes. Where does gold go in this environment, not above $2000 that's for sure. Bernanke has always said he will do anything to avoid serious deflation but how long will they wait, will gold go to $500 and DJI 5000 before anything's done..we simply do not know..

Diversification has to be the most sensible answer as unless your in the top elite, putting all eggs in one basket leaves you with a small chance of making an absolute fortune, but a much higher chance of losing the lot.

Headlines like 'MF Global sold assets to Goldman before collapse' really do worry me, the thought that ordinary PI/traders funds were transferred to the banks before a collapse and then more than likely the taxpayer will then be billed through higher taxation to compensate these funds. So the banks have wealth transferred to them, and the taxpayer foots the bill by compensating the 'lost' funds. Where I have heard that before..bailout anyone..

I'm keeping a close eye on the JPM's and Goldman's, and the George Soros's of the world. If they say buy gold, then you should sell. If they're selling then you buy. Italy's biggest bank was down near 40% over three days last week, and the FTSE was up, it just feels like something big is round the corner, and I don't think it's going to be good.

Sorry for o/t just writing my thoughts.

[aleoap] 07/1/2012 13:06

Loftus good to hear from you. After CNR's amazing run in 2010 I wasn't expecting much share price growth in 2011 (although I am pleased it has held its ground against the current market sentiment). I think this year should see CNR back into double figures in H2 (dependant on QE3). SNRP same here, sold in Feb I think, made 30/40% profit on my buys but holding a million plus shares the risk was too high, especially after the Ulitorque loan issue. I was able to sell on a few spikes following a tip - can't remember who but it took it to the mid twenties.

As regards PGL, they are on a yellow card for me. Mainly due to delays. The expansion is still not complete yet this was meant to be in place by March 2011. At £20m mcap though I find it hard to see downside here, politically stable, relatively cheap production costs, 50k oz pa this calendar year and shows of 1000 g/t gold (don't believe I've seen another goldie produce results anwhere close. I only wish we had Mark C running the show rather than current management who have given themselves a 10% salary increase this last year (for what exactly). They should be paid in shares, and give back the 400/500k pa paid (they'd double profits overnight).

I've not really done much trading in 2011, I'm waiting for signs that the current deflationary period is coming to an end. Will we see QE3 by March 2012? This is key imo. If we do then look for a strong H2 performance. My worry is on a technical basis most index charts and especially AIM have a whopping head and shoulders pattern forming from the lows in 2009. If this plays out then we could see under 400 on AIM and other lows across the board. I'll put together a quick chart to show you what I mean. This next 6 months is critical. I want to see over 800 on AIM before committing large funds but we could see another opportunity like in Mar 2009 to pick up unbelievable bargains..with this in mind I am reviewing whether I want to be invested in the stock market at all over the next few months (sadly including CNR).

The problem is where do you keep your wealth. Currently holding stocks, property and precious metals (physical), but in a deflationary period all go down. As they say it's easy to make a fortune but hard to maintain it. One things for sure whatever happens the bankers will be richer for it.

[sporazene2] 06/1/2012 20:23

Aleoap, yes still looking in. I will be sitting this out for the foreseeable future. They probably don't have a lot of cash left and the working capital doesn't give much headroom for what needs to be a fairly aggressive exploration campaign on the two main targets. True, there should be much more cash from the expanded capacity and blending of higher grade resources into the tailings but i have zero confidence in this management.

We don't get any numbers yet on annualised production so it becomes very difficult to even value the company, using a free cashflow model, which i prefer.

Looks to me like a lifestyle business for the CEO, he appears completely unaccountable to the average shareholder and he will certainly be suiting himself rather than the average shareholders.

You mention CLF and it most definitely underscores the fact that market will punish lack of delivery. This is the route cause of the drop in CLF's share price (together with general market sentiment) the potential still exists in the CLF story, but they are way behind with the BFS in SL. I am tempted for more at this price, but would prefer to see some green shoots of recovery to build my confidence in the management.

From a mining perspective the main % of my portfolio is going to be focused on companies that have a comparative low multiple in terms of free cashflow, based on their committed annual production. I will have a space for a few that carry more risk but this will not be one of them..

Best of luck for 2012

[loftus16] 06/1/2012 18:08

Good to know you are still around Aleoap. CNR seems a long time ago. I see SNRP have come back a lot are you still in them? I sold about a year ago as didn't think it felt right. Sorry for o/t.

[aleoap] 05/1/2012 16:21

sporazene if your still around what are your thoughts on these now cash raised and no dilution risk present. Imo these are v cheap based on Q1 doubling production and then 50k oz by end of 2011 based on approx $650-$750 cash cost per oz. Goldies in general seem oversold now, based on my research £1.8 billion was wiped off london listed gold stocks in December alone. £23 billion buys all the goldies listed now including the biggies YAU, RRS, ABG etc.. Or you can have Lloyds for £18 billion. Laughable really. I'm sure over the coming years the gains on these goldies will leave a few gobsmacked. I see one of yours CLF has been hit, any reasons or just market sentiment again?

[aleoap] 05/1/2012 16:03

Hopefully a better year to come for holders here.

Anyone have any thoughts on the following in the recent results i.e. is a result expected or is this motion just a paper filling exercise?

5) The Company was informed on 5th September 2011 that the Applicants had filed a Notice of Motion seeking leave to appeal to the Federal Court of Malaysia against the decision of the Court of Appeal. As at the date of approval of these financial statements, the date has been fixed for the hearing of the Notice of Motion on 11th January 2012.

[horndean eagle] 14/12/2011 15:20

Can you trust the idiots running PGL to actually deliver though. Not much goodwill heading their way on that score.

[aleoap] 14/12/2011 15:18

So, no placing or dilution for existing shareholders. Looks good for next year now.

[sporazene2] 29/11/2011 10:51

SBT

take a look at debt, expansion was done via additional drawdown
additionally they raised cash after last years results and have burnt most of it.
as Aleop states doesnt look as though cash generation will cover working capital and exploration requirements in the short term

Current Liabilities

Trade and other payables 10 (4,492,043) (2,517,338)
Borrowings - current portion 11 (6,616,972) (4,462,146)
Current tax liability (38,519) -


Total Current Liabilities (11,147,534) (6,979,484)

Net Current Liabilities (7,403,402) (3,765,270)


Total Assets Less Current
Liabilities 51,613,553 38,807,937

Non-Current Liabilities

Trade and other payables 10 (360,000) (300,000)
Long-term borrowings 11 (16,311,762) (13,435,645)

[aleoap] 29/11/2011 10:42

At this share price it's an interesting one to hold with all the short term catalyst's due. Raub Upgrade, Tersang JORC, 2mtpa to come online, crushing and milling circuit to be commissioned...all in H1 2012. And with news like the following it could be perfect timing..



One doubt over all of this is the cash - will we have a placing or not..we may well get another pro-active article later with commentary from Patrick Watson following these results so may get more info.

[aleoap] 29/11/2011 10:12

SBT - interesting one re cash. As sporazene states they had £741k cash as at 30th June 2011. I'm sure I had calculated cashburn at £900k per month (again my figures dyor etc). IF, and that's a big IF, they can last until production ramps up, first to 25k and then 50k in Q1/Q2 next year then maybe we won't need additional funds until the NLA needs scoping study/additional plant. History tells us PGL fail to deliver on time so a betting man would go with a placing imo. Maybe they use this opportunity to dual list, as they have wished to do so for a while.

In the notes to the financial statements it states 'Current liabilities are expected to be settled out of operational cashflows derived from the ramp-up of production and an increase in gold sales in the coming year, along with additional borrowings to be raised'. 'The company is confident of being able to raise additional funds, if required, to provide the Group with sufficient resources to meet all obligations as they fall due within the next 12 months'.

[aleoap] 29/11/2011 09:33

Just reading the results it looks like the 2mtpa won't be operational until Q1 2012. 'Modifications are being made' - 'Once complete, during Q1 2012, these modifications will also enable the CIL plant to take up its full capacity of 2mtpa from the existing tailings'. Disappointed with this. I doubt very much they will get the crushing and milling circuit operational in Q1 now.

[aleoap] 29/11/2011 09:24

Production figures:

Jan 2010 954oz from 90,000t = 0.33g/t
Feb 2010 954oz from 90,000t = 0.33g/t
Mar 2010 954oz from 90,000t = 0.33g/t
Apr 2010 954oz from 90,000t = 0.33g/t
May 2010 1438oz from 90,000t = 0.49g/t
Jun 2010 1618oz from 90,000t = 0.56g/t
Jul 2010 1880oz from 105,000t = 0.56g/t
Aug 2010 1287oz from 82,504t = 0.48g/t
Sep 2010 1043oz from 83,420t = 0.39g/t
Oct 2010 1629oz from 113,580t = 0.45g/t
Nov 2010 1447oz from 112,681t = 0.40g/t
Dec 2010 1447oz from 112,681t = 0.40g/t
Jan 2011 1187oz from 93,075t = 0.40g/t
Feb 2011 1187oz from 93,075t = 0.40g/t
Mar 2011 1187oz from 93,075t = 0.40g/t
Apr 2011 1390oz from 114,339t = 0.38g/t
May 2011 1390oz from 114,339t = 0.38g/t
Jun 2011 1390oz from 114,339t = 0.38g/t

Jul 2011 1231oz from 116,248t = 0.33g/t
Aug 2011 1232oz from 116,248t = 0.33g/t
Sep 2011 1232oz from 116,248t = 0.33g/t

So grade decreasing but tonnage upto 1.4mtpa (on a 1.1mtpa plant). Sooner we move to the higher grade ore the better.

[superbobtaylor] 29/11/2011 09:24

sporazene2 why do you say more cash required? They managed to do all expansion and plant construction this year and turn a modest profit.

Anyone know what

Other operating expenses (1,631,819)

Administrative expenses (2,864,569)

relate to exactly? These expenses are killing the results.

SBT

[sporazene2] 29/11/2011 09:01

arent they..this looks like a lifestyle business to me

[horndean eagle] 29/11/2011 08:59

The FD has his phone number on the announcement for anyone who has been trying to track him down. He is very elusive.

[sporazene2] 29/11/2011 08:55

740K cash, more required, debt also looks high

[aleoap] 29/11/2011 08:53

With commissioning started we should now be seeing:

2 mtpa @ 0.42g/t = 27,000oz per annum

(Grade may be slightly lower as this was the average upto Mar 2011)

Let's say 25,000oz per annum with commissioning commenced.

[aleoap] 29/11/2011 08:48

Initial thoughts on results are good. Commissioning commenced and no impact on Q1 for new crushing and milling circuit. Profit and production up from previous year. I'll have a good read later. Production in theory could increase to (my figures) 52,500 in H2 2012, I imagine we will see blue today.

[aleoap] 15/11/2011 20:27

Well it's been a while since PGL did not include production operations news along with an exploration one. We have year end results due by the end of November which would give us Q3 production update. I'll be interested to know what has caused the prolonged delays with the commissioning. I'll also be pleased when it's finally up and running and we can take advantage of the higher grade ore (when crushing and milling circuit complete) and the higher au price.

Just looking back at recent RNS to examine what has been stated timewise:

18/05/11 - 'Construction of the additional 0.9mtpa CIL circuit capacity is progressing and is expected to be completed by end of June 2011'
'Commissioning of the new CIL circuit using tailings material will follow during Q3 2011'
'define new resources by the middle of Q4 2011' - Raub
'define a new JORC compliant resource at Tersang by the middle of Q4 2011'

23/08/11 - 'Pre-commissioning and testing of the leach tanks in the CIL circuit expansion has commenced '
'Commissioning of the CIL expansion circuit is expected to have commenced by the end of Q3 2011'
'Once the expansion project is fully completed and commissioned, which also includes the new crushing and milling circuit, which is anticipated to be during Q1 2012'
Raub - 'The current resource estimate will be updated with the completion of the deeper drilling.'
Tersang JORC 'Once the current diamond drilling is complete, this figure will be estimated by an independent consultancy and is currently anticipated during Q4 2011.'

11/11/11 - Raub - 'Raub Additional 21,800 ounces of Indicated resource'
Tersang - 'is being estimated for the main intrusive and is expected during Q4 2011. '
Raub - 'As announced previously, the Company intends to update the current resource estimate outside the old tailings'
Tersang - 'A maiden JORC resource is being estimated by an independent party and is expected to be released before the end of the calendar year.'

So it looks like they are no longer giving dates for the Raub resource update (a good thing imo), and for Tersang are stating 'before the end of the calendar year' and 'during Q4 2011' in the last update. With regards to production, my take is that the construction is now complete, with pre-commissioning commenced in August. We are now nearly 3 months on from pre-commissioning. Will it be fully commissioned before the end of year results?

My question is will the delays on commissioning the CIL expansion circuit impact on the expected date for the new crushing or milling circuit. It was stated as during Q1 in the August update. Hopefully get a better idea in the up and coming results. The crushing and milling circuit is the game changer here as once the higher grade ore is being used in addition to the extra tonnage capacity gold production can imo triple or more from what we are achieving at the moment..

[sporazene2] 27/10/2011 01:17

placing on way 25p max

[horndean eagle] 03/10/2011 14:17

Get the feeling a very discounted placing isn't too far off. Management are a bunch of scum. They aren't even responding to emails any more. Things must be really bad in the case. Did speak to them earlier in the year and even then the company wasn't performing well. Hate to think how bad they have screwed up since.

[aleoap] 30/9/2011 16:49

Delay it is, don't know why I expected anything different. Don't tell me, heavy rains or maybe it was just too hot. I'll stop getting my hopes up at any dates given by the management. I'll just add on +12 months to any statement going forward. So JORC resource upgrade should be with us by the end of 2012. Ah, that's better already. Won't post again till news, might be a while..

see my post 766 - my one gripe with PGL is the delays..but they are only delays as we were promised something that hasn't been delivered. Easily fixed PGL, stop promising things that can't be delivered. Either don't give dates or put them way into the future so you always deliver on time or way before.