Parkmead Share Discussion Threads

[bountyhunter] 03/3/2019 22:14

Just a smallholding, it is a bit bogged down right now lol!

[fardels bear] 03/3/2019 22:12

You in here, too? This could be the boggy..

[bountyhunter] 03/3/2019 21:52

Lol, gone completely dotty by the look of it

[fardels bear] 03/3/2019 19:05

Chestnut's pants, Bh, only wedgie round these parts.

[bountyhunter] 03/3/2019 18:35

Do you think that's some kind of wedge formation on the chart Fardels?

[fardels bear] 03/3/2019 18:08

So, all to play for. Wouldn't want to be out of this over any weekend for the sake of fourpence a share...

[bountyhunter] 03/3/2019 17:41

Apache NS assets to be sold (63k boepd)

[robs12] 03/3/2019 17:34

Assuming PMG announce the deal and confirm a route to market for GPA sour crude and a timeline, by my sums they will be unlocking access to:

1)Perth and Dolphin (PMG 100%) – discoveries, appraised by 17 wells, recoverable and contingent resources of approx. 104 MMBoe. Estimated 498MMBbls total oil in place for all of Perth field.
2)Lowlander (PMG 100%) - (a discovery, appraised by 5 wells, with 21.4 MMBoe 2C)
3)Polecat and Marten (PMG 100%) – Polecat discovered 2005, appraised 2010, appraisal well flowed at 4,373 bbls/day. Marten discovered 1984, three oil bearing sandstones. Together estimated 90MMBoe in place, and 33MMBoe 2C, close to Verbier (15% Jersey O&G) as an aside.

So approx. 160MMBoe 2P & 2C in discovered oil fields, 100% owned by PMG (currently!).

With the possibility that these figures could increase dependent on improved recovery rate - PMG have undertaken a study through AGR to model potential fracture stimulation, but no news on results of that yet.

But if the GPA area is opened up and the facilities allow sour oil production, then the entire area (the “sour crescent”, some 30km radius of Perth/Scott) is estimated to hold some 950MMBoe of stranded oil in discovered but undeveloped fields. Maybe more undiscovered.

Add to this the possibility of bringing Athena back on line (PMG 30%, and Jersey O&G 15%, with Ithaca as operator, and is just outside the 30km radius) with estimated 26MMBBL proven and probable – according to Sproule 2012).

PMG is valued at £54m, of which £24m was cash at June 2018 (with more coming in from the Dutch gas production), and just over £6m for the FPM stake (I guess they now have the cash?).

So in rough numbers GPA is currently valued at £24m, less whatever the value of the Dutch gas assets + Aupec + other gas assets in SNS + explo acreage (maybe £5m for all?) – so say £20m for GPA.

160MMBoe of 2P & 2C valued at $5/bbl in the ground is ~£600m, or £6 per share. If they can get it out of the ground. This is not exploration wells – it is already discovered and proven to be there, it ‘just’ needs a way of getting it out of the ground.

Or maybe fairer to compare the recent DNO bid for FPM where they paid $3.2 per bbl of 2P+2C. That would be approx £380m.

With potential to increase that 2P+2C figure substantially through increased recovery rates, re-opening Athena, maybe more deals in the area (recent TC quote "We are looking at territory around our existing fields, and things we can revisit with newer technology.")?

They will no doubt have to trade some of it away to finance and get the Nexen deal done, but I believe they’ve now found the key to the door and are about to unlock it.

We’ll find out soon enough - Interims are normally end of March, if no other announcements before that.

GLA!

p.s. Don’t want to think about the impact if they believe the recovery rate can be improved from 24% to say 40%. Senergy estimated 24% a while back for Perth, when 2P was given as 41.3MMBbls. Charles Stanley had to say about it: “For Phase 1, our economic valuation assumes a recovery rate of 24% (based on the Senergy 2P estimates). We expect the actual recovery rate to vary from this current best estimate, perhaps materially because there is quite a bit of uncertainty, in our opinion, relating to the distribution of higher quality sands within the heterogeneous Claymore reservoir. Recovery estimates for the Claymore and Scapa fields, which also produce from Claymore sands, increased over time to 40% and 56% respectively (according to the operator Talisman Energy’s most recent publicly available estimates).”

[francoismyname] 28/2/2019 12:38

Share price in no mans land now....

Dont reply tubby ...

[francoismyname] 28/2/2019 12:37

Since the christmas update, Tom's taken another £100k out of the company coffers...

These castles need their moats draining regularly you know and it does not come cheap.

[itscominghome] 28/2/2019 11:21

no offence Chutes but youve been posting "news any day" or words to that effect for months now. Clutching and Straws spring to mind. I'm rapidly losing faith in this stock now.

[fhmktg] 28/2/2019 10:59

It's a long shot, but maybe the Ineos upgrade to secure Forties for the long term might be the catalyst to unlock the whole Outer Moray Firth project, linking all the small fields including GPA...oh and the increased find around Buzzard.Funding round underway now Jim has made the key move?

[fardels bear] 28/2/2019 09:32

Oh, Forties you mean.

[fardels bear] 28/2/2019 08:44

What could?

[chutes01] 28/2/2019 01:02

could be the catalyst for news at last

[francoismyname] 27/2/2019 23:13

50p at a stock brokers close to you very soon.

Dnt reply tubby

[fardels bear] 27/2/2019 13:47

I hope Big Jim hasn't mistaken Crankieland for the tax exile we read about recently..He could keep the entire population in benefits payments for years to come if they are canny about it.

[fhmktg] 27/2/2019 08:03

Oh..and the power plant is worth a further £350 million....

[fhmktg] 27/2/2019 08:02

Ineos to invest £500 million upgrading the Forties pipeline and a new energy plant for the Grangemouth chemicals plant.I hope Tom is on his Christmas card list....or even more involved in this vital plan for Scottish industry.

[robs12] 26/2/2019 18:44

This a long, old (2013), and very detailed research note about mainly Perth - well worth a read if you want to understand where they have come from, what they have, and that essentially the GPA plan is unchanged.
Remember that there have been many changes since 2013 (e.g. Pharos is gone, Athena shut in, fundraising, but very importantly in increasing the GPA acreage) and a huge decrease in the oil price and share price of course...

I assume much of the detail came from PMG themselves (don't think you'll find it elsewhere) - and it is still linked to on their website, but they stopped broadcasting the details some time ago. Well worth a read:

hxxps://www.parkmeadgroup.com/uploaded/research/Charles_Stanley_Research_21.10.2013.pdf