Paragon Entertainment Share Discussion Threads

[dailylarma] 01/11/2016 13:50

EBITDA is fluffDoesnt mean much

[rhomboid] 01/11/2016 13:34

Hi PJ
I'm most interested in the cash position given past difficulties, at HY debt was £246k but £753k debtor paid a few weeks later. A million in EBITDA is great but this is a business that gobbles up cash to fund WIP, I can't see why they can't guide on P&L, it's not exactly rocket science?

[pj 1] 01/11/2016 13:26

Its not Results, its a trading update. Sometimes you have to read between the lines and take previous Market updates into account.

[dan_the_epic] 01/11/2016 13:18

No I agree. But this won't be on anything like 10x EBITDA unless they start showing really convincing signs of EBITDA converting to cash flow, and the revenue trend being sustainable.

This is a step in the right direction, but I fully understand why this isn't a lot higher on today's results. Sustainable progress is key, and this isn't yet visible.

[pj 1] 01/11/2016 10:28

????

It would be unusual if cash flow preceded EBITDA? im sure now growth has been confirmed and all legacy issues put to bed that more emphasis will be placed on e.p.s. going forward, and subsequent cash conversion.

[dan_the_epic] 01/11/2016 09:09

I suspect the EBITDA to operating cash flow conversion rate here will be fairly disappointing for that headline EBITDA figure and that's why this is hovering at 2.5, rather than 3.5 etc.

[qs99] 01/11/2016 08:21

hopefully by Y/e with this sort of EBITDA, it would have paid down a big chunk of its debt as well, hopefully fuelling equity value....until of course it looks for a deal or growth funding from its bankers...DYOR

[qs99] 01/11/2016 08:15

actually yes have been "involved" to some degree....but also involved with industries with a similar outlook just not manufacturing.....but that doesn't mean market values it the same way, otherwise everything would be on a p/e of 1!

PEL have delivered some exceptional results here, the key will be as you say, can they maintain it, do the city believe it, have they funds to deliver it etc etc....if growth expected then IMO the shares should be materially north of 3p. DYOR etc.

[playful] 01/11/2016 07:58

MT continues to show good stewardship here

[pj 1] 01/11/2016 07:53

Hopefully TMS. IMO it has historically been valued at x7 EBITDA/EV which on same metrics = 3.5p. Re-rate by xmas?

As you say though growth should = higher multiple (like the Market always does as expected LOL)

[themadstork] 01/11/2016 07:49

I don't think it is unreasonable for a growth company to trade at 10x EBITDA. Obviously this is a slightly higher multiple than PEL has historically traded at, but sentiment was lacking before. I suspect it won't be now!

[pj 1] 01/11/2016 07:48

LOL QS

Were you ever in Manufacturing by any chance?
''You're only as good as next week's figures?''

[qs99] 01/11/2016 07:39

yup well done team. wonder what growth the market will assume for next year in terms of SP

[1savvyinvestor] 01/11/2016 07:38

News exceeding expectations. That's what we all like to see.

[cheshire man] 01/11/2016 07:36

Excellent news this morning :-)

[themadstork] 01/11/2016 07:22

Great news this morning. Turns out they *were* being conservative with the forecast after all!

Congratulations to the board and all the team at Paragon.

Paragon Entertainment Limited

Trading update



Paragon Entertainment Limited (AIM: PEL), the attractions design, production, fit-out and licensing business, is pleased to provide an update on current trading for the financial year to date.



The Board is pleased to announce that the Group is trading ahead of the Board's previous expectations as Paragon has moved beyond the distractions of recent years which has enabled staff and management to focus their efforts on its core attraction 'design and build' business. In addition, the strength of the current order book gives management confidence in continued growth for the year ahead.



The Board now expects revenue for the full year ending 31 December 2016 to be approximately £13.2m, ahead of previous expectations of £11.0m; and EBITDA for the full year ending 31 December 2016 to be approximately £1.0m, ahead of previous expectations of £0.5m.



Mark Taylor, Chairman of the Group, said:

"I am satisfied with our continued progress. Our team at Paragon has worked extremely hard over the last two years to grow the business while continuing to produce the quality and innovation that is expected of us as a market leader. This year we have also invested heavily in building capacity to prepare us for growth in the years ahead."

[qs99] 01/11/2016 07:18

can't believe no-one has commented on the trading update yet?!

[pj 1] 26/10/2016 11:00

What's a 'sleep easy' share? Don't think Ive ever had one, unless a premium take over completes. Have you got many? lol

Unsure yet that the NHS operate for an expanding waistline, increasing blood pressure,reducing eyesight, failing hearing and a shrinking wallet? Other than that Im fighting fit, except been roped into a Movember 10k, not easy at 54 and overweight.... more Torture.............

It's our Boy. Little known condition called Tuberous Sclerosis (check spelling). Op was meant to be today but has been postponed last minute until 1st Nov. removing one of his nasty fast growing brain tumours.

Staggering round a 10k and picking rising shares should be a breeze ............

[dontsweatit] 26/10/2016 10:25

Hope so not been a sleep easy share this one at all. Can we ask how you are PJ, seems rumor you having an operation?

[pj 1] 25/10/2016 14:52

A few quieter days and another tick up which hopefully sees the end of the recent (distressed?) seller?

[dontsweatit] 19/10/2016 10:51

PJ self torture fan of Nottingham Forest and Paragon E?

[pj 1] 19/10/2016 09:25

Indeed playful.Never rule out the unexpected I guess is an investor strategy. Whilst PEL have always stated there are no plans for a placing, its wise to never totally rule it out. Even cash rich Co's do placing at times, although usually to support 'transformational' contracts (which rarely are)
Best to ignore what I say, never thought the share price would be this low again, must try harder and practice what I preach and expect the unexpected.

Feeling depressed after watching my team who previously won the Euro Cup twice get stuffed at Ewood Park at the bottom of the 2nd division, they hadn't scored for 3 matches but found it easy against us. Sad to see jack Walkers legacy stadium only a quarter full, no atmosphere, rain, wind, pretty awful really. Glad I stopped smoking all those years ago, would have been a long walk to get a light of someone. Pathetic entertainment. £60 followed the rain down the drain....

Digressing probably but I am trying to make a point. As an (ex) Business person I couldn't help wondering why BRFC didnt shut down at least another half of the stadium, save on policing, stewards, catering, leccy etc etc. (It would have been much warmer with everyone more closely cuddled together) They must have cash to Burn? All the Blackburn fans I spoke to were against it, but could give no reason why. Logic disappeared. They are not 'growing' and will not get promoted either. None seemed the least bit concerned of the cash waste. I did recommend they should start drilling, but it went over their heads.......

So, turning my logic on its head, PEL have increased their manufacturing capacity for a reason....

[playful] 18/10/2016 23:02

I like PEL and the projects they complete are terrific, but what liquid asset can be readily converted into cash should the need arise?