Pantheon Resources Share Discussion Threads

[rabito79] 18/1/2022 11:42

Two very different beasts Bitcoin, despite the proximity. 88e has become an OTC favourite after significant social media coverage the majority of which is wrong. 88e do an excellent job at crafting there updates to fuel the fire. Interesting that despite having ~$23M cash and having pre-paid contractors $7.5M (those contractors being their Operation Manager's other company), their possible flow test this winter is still subject to financing. So probably looking at a figure of $30M for their drill (last year was similar). In contrast Theta West and Talitha Operations looking at $27.4M. Yet 88e touted these drills as 'Bang for Buck', as they say never let the truth get in the way of a good story.

[dan de lion] 18/1/2022 11:41

News of the spudding at Theta West should also indicated that Talitha is going to plan as well, should give the share price a lift!

[seejayem] 18/1/2022 11:10

Flipping eck! 9cents difference to OTC Friday close!

[bit coin] 18/1/2022 11:06

according to advfn, panr market cap is £ 524 and 88e has market cap of £ 281

How come ? - panr is fully permitted and a drill is in progress with further work in hand on two other north slope operations, whereas 88e await their permit and can't lift a spanner till that is issued...................I know where I'd rather have my hard earned wedge!!!!

[banksy] 18/1/2022 10:18

I know your filtered:)

[ngms27] 18/1/2022 10:15

That's brave given the CoS you quoted a few weeks back ;)

[johnswan193] 18/1/2022 10:13

Not me, just topped up sub-70p. ;-)

[ngms27] 18/1/2022 10:10

Timbeeeeeeeeeer

Looks like everyone wants to de-risk.

[sandcrab2] 18/1/2022 10:09

Price plunging further

Someone always knows something

[sirmark] 18/1/2022 09:59

I think well see a large 1.5mln+ trade at the close today... yesterdays selling and todays combined and match over to the OTC.

Mad though, we're about to spud and down on the day and 88E a month away and rallying 20% .


Look forward to some stellar results.....

[probabilityofsuccess] 18/1/2022 09:58

Thanks for those thoughts cezuan - we’d better get buying then! I do think that peeps are incorrectly assessing the risk/reward here, relative to other opportunities.

[references] 18/1/2022 09:56

Good point Echo.

[echoridge] 18/1/2022 08:57

Who says no one is/has approached F, References? The very real possibility that - given the (additional) fact that long oil and oil shares is already shaping up to be the trade of the year in 2022 for the 2nd consecutive year, and this time no long/short hedge fund manager can afford to miss it if they want to stay employed - all or a significant portion of F's position could suddenly go in a block increases daily.....

[cezuan] 18/1/2022 08:56

@Probability
Are we held down by a seller?
Comparing daily volume within the last 12 months, the last month's vol is lower (>1/3rd) than the average. Assuming the same amount of selling throughout - which makes sense - we are lacking buyers.
The December 9th-31st recovery from lows was on especially low volume. The chart suggests the selling volume started to increase in November and stops at 72p. The volume between September and mid November was a lot higher and the share price was flat or increased throughout.

That suggests that a lack of buyers is the reason for the recent downtrend and not an increase in selling volume. Given the strong oil price and oil sector rallyes, that seems noteworthy.

Market-wide risk-off sentiment might explain some of it. But PANR should also be oil "beta".

[inteligentia8] 18/1/2022 03:13

International oil prices trade close to 7-year high - via @FT

[scot126] 17/1/2022 20:11

ANS West Coast crude oil price on 13/1/22 was $85.41 per barrel v's Brent @ $84.47. Surely a reason to feel happy and optimistic?


.....and yet, and yet the share price is leading to more than a few quivering bottom lips on this thread (but not on the Guild, natch). All things being equal one would expect the share price to react reasonably positively when the macro picture is supportive/benign, eh?

Cue much stamping of feet in frustration, toddler style.

A few points in no particular order:

1) We would all be advised not to fall into the cult-like trance which befell UK and Aussie 88E shareholders in March/April '21. Ever since that period only a handful of posters on the various 88E forums understand the US OTC brokers must firstly source (and sell back too!) liquidity from the primary exchanges (Oz + UK in 88E's case, only UK for PANR) which led to 99% of 88E posters overestimating the genuine volume of shares being traded. Unlike the (superior IMHO) Aussie trading system, the UK maintains a market maker structure so recent volume in the UK likely sees enhanced US OTC broker activity *plus* the "double counting" of the normal UK market making activity.

The US OTC effect is not a "double-edged sword" or anything so dramatic. It simply is what it is. The stock isn't fully fungible so the US OTC brokers have no other avenue to source liquidity except from AIM. I strongly, strongly suggest folk fully incorporate this mechanism in their thinking/analysis of PANR's ADV (average daily volume).

2) I don't know the precise date when this happened but I note PANR is now a member of the FTSE Russell AIM 50 Index. I stopped monitoring any changes to the constituents of the AIM 50 before Christmas as I (wrongly) thought PANR had narrowly missed out on inclusion this time around. It turns out PANR was included in the AIM *100* slightly before the formal revision period due to a substitution (deleted stock was taken over and delisted => PANR immediately replaced the former constituent) and PANR joined the AIM 50 on its own merits when the index was revised in December '21/January '22. These index changes plus the MSCI move to the Global Small Cap Index plus the fundraise shares issued all take a wee while to settle down. As an example, I have today emailed FTSE Russell to advise them of a factual error in their PANR shares on issue number on one of their data publications. I haven't a scooby whether this is a simple clerical/human error limited to one cell of a spreadsheet (zero impact) or whether that cell/column is linked to a wider dataset which will require a re-weighting across their index/tracker fund client base? These things to happen and I received a (non-standard) response within minutes saying they're investigating the error. Sh^t happens.

3) Farallon. Once again for posterity, and of course for new readers to this thread, please Google "Ludwig Wittgenstein" and read his most famous contribution to philosophical thought: 'If a lion could speak, we could not understand him'. It's taken me about a year to knock this into some individuals' brains but I think a majority of regular readers on ADVFN now "get it". The Farallon bond desk which manages what was originally intended to be a quasi sovereign-backed corporate debt is now sitting on a massive profit in an AIM E&P stock which they'd never heard of prior to H2'18. I will metaphorically eat my hat if Farallon hasn't continued to supply stock to the market in the days/weeks following the recent fundraise. Why wouldn't they? They were perfectly comfortable selling squillions of shares in the 29p-34p range in H1'21 so why would they not be selling presently? By now, it must surely be apparent to all but the most obstinate foot soldier in the tin hat brigade that the Farallon bond desk is not viewing their PANR shareholding in the same manner as a fundamental equity investor. Like a few others on this forum, I'd be genuinely amazed if the company doesn't receive a TR-1 from Farallon in the next few hours/days.

I appreciate the following may sound odd and likely unprofessional. There's a half decent chance the Farallon fund managers won't even bother to listen/watch the webinar on 24/1/22. My suggestion? Just accept it. It's been part of the Great Bear investment case since 2015 and it came with Great Bear when the merger with PANR was finalised in January '19. I've been blethering on about Farallon since they began selling shares after the lock up period expired a year ago. If these bond fund managers had behaved like a traditional fundamentally-focussed small cap institution they wouldn't have sold squillions of shares at 29p-34p. Those of us who bought some of Farallon's "cheap" shares, especially in H1'21, bought stock with a considerably higher risk and considerably lower potential reward attached *at that time* (pre-VAS report by Baker Hughes and pre the unveiling of the potential elephant that is Theta West). For the umpteenth time, Farallon are *NOT* making a call on the fundamentals of PANR.

4) I've tried to persuade some of the more willing readers of this thread to Google "delta hedging of a convertible bond". I do *not* know for sure but there's a decent chance Heights Capital will have attempted to hedge their first quarter exposure by selling (at a minimum?) their $3m equity piece. I've already started to monitor Short Tracker for signs of Heights shorting the stock. No evidence yet but perhaps anyone with access to Euroclear stock borrowing data could keep us apprised of movements in stock out on loan via Euroclear?

Cue more gnashing of teeth? Don't they know Oilman Dim and those who trade as he advocates need their easy (riskless?! lol) profit when the share price appreciates into a period of voluminous newsflow? Sure, it would have been nice but this is the "price" we equity investors must accept for the company being well capitalised for the first time ever. Ask yourself at what other point in PANR's 15 year history has it had sufficient funds to drill and test 3.5 wells? In 2022, PANR is rolling multiple dice across multiple horizons across multiple wells. IMHO the risk/reward at 75p is more favourable now than it was when Farallon were slotting millions of shares at 29p-34p in H1'21. It's also the "price" we must accept intellectually for the reduced dilution we "suffered" collectively v's a farm out. Let's not all forget the dilution ranges being discussed seriously on this very thread? 25%, 30%, 49%, 50%, >50% were all discussed and debated. Fact.

I note and kinda have some sympathy with a couple of posters who suggest, with varying degrees of empathy, that it's up to management to deliver a pre-results PR blitzkrieg. A PR campaign of sufficient impact to bounce Farallon and/or Heights' selling volume into oblivion. I "get it". However, and it is a genuine "however", PANR has 8 employees and I don't know about the rest of you but I'd far rather they focussed 99% of their efforts on a successful Alaskan winter season v's persuading the FT O&G journo to mention PANR in a column?

That said, and it's an area of investing where my attitude has evolved considerably I must admit, there is nothing wrong with each of us undertaking our own PR blitzkrieg on all of the usual social media platforms and forums. I'm happy to be corrected but my research has *not* uncovered an onshore well due to be drilled and flow tested in 2022 which is targeting 1.4bbo, and flow testing another for c.800mmbo. It's a programme of activity of which we shareholders can rightly be proud. If you receive any digital heat out there from those who scoff at the upside risk to the PANR investment case and threaten to short against your understanding of same, reply robustly urging them to have a look at 88E first! Anyone who has the nous to short a stock will be incredulous when comparing the relative valuations of these two Alaskan plays. Good luck out there!

[doublestexan] 17/1/2022 19:01

The USA market is closed January 17 th 2022,honoring Doctor Martin Luther King.

[bobbiedazzler] 17/1/2022 17:54

The Canaccord sector update says PANR is a top pick. Target share price at 220p is 171 per cent more than at the time of the analysis (81p). Average of 16 stocks is projected rise of 84 per cent due to higher oil prices

[cezuan] 17/1/2022 17:32

@Rabito That assessment would not be totally off. We don't know the state of industry interest, nor what happens after the drilling (beside Alkaid). We don't know what step in the oil valuation hierarchy will be reached after each drilling, especially for TW. One could argue that we don't even know enough to interpret the company relevance of the drilling data once it comes, ignoring extreme readings. I do think that we could know a lot more. Hopefully the webinar tackles a lot of questions and is very explicit.