Pantheon Resources Share Discussion Threads

[cezuan] 05/11/2021 09:52

I have 0 issues with additional testing in winter 2022.

As long as we follow the guidance that would only add value. The share price would progress along with it and one could get out where one wants.

Problems only arise, imo, once ppl start sacrificing. E.g. dis-engaging with any present purchasing interest to get more value in the future. I cannot read "2023" w/o hearing a decrease of the clarity about reliable industry interest.

Imo that uncertainty is the 2nd biggest share price cap and it would make me nervous.

Let's see what the financing will be first though!

[johnswan193] 05/11/2021 09:50

GG, how have they demonstrated that they are not prepared to ignore the Kuparuk?

[sirmark] 05/11/2021 09:35

MM's on the bid

07:50 WINS 30,000 82
07:55 ARDA 30,000 82
09:30 STFL 30,000 80.2
07:51 PEEL 30,000 80
09:31 SCAP 50,000 79.9
09:31 MREX 30,000 79.9
09:31 SING 50,000 79.9
09:31 CANA 30,000 79.9
09:31 CFEP 30,000 79.9

[probabilityofsuccess] 05/11/2021 09:33

Understand, thanks for expanding on that Johnswan - you are effectively saying that you think they maybe overegging things then? (Not trying to put words in your mouth, just looking to understand what you believe, articulated as statements of opinion rather than questions that infer something, without actually stating it). Thanks.

[sirmark] 05/11/2021 09:32

MM's on 82 up from 80 yesterday so 82 should hold imo

[gorgeousgeorge01] 05/11/2021 09:31

"The Kuparuk is a deal sweetener or another failback like Alkaid. You always have to leave some froth for the purchaser."

I'm not so sure ngms. I think that the Kuparuk alone is a company maker. It's simply too big to ignore. The company has already demonstrated that it is not prepared to ignore the Kuparuk.

In totality, Alaska is already bigger than any of us could have imagined barely 18 months ago. I've no idea how any of this is going to turn out. I do know that there will remain ample opportunity for profit in the market as we go. In a very real sense, the longer this goes on the better.

[johnswan193] 05/11/2021 09:20

POS - I agree with Jonny, a deal sweetener in the event of success at TW, not a deal stopper. The company have not been shy about talking up what they have - my view is that if the Kuparuk was still so compelling they would have a) provided an update by now following the 17-May RNS b) alluded to this in the most recent webinar, and other than it appearing on the 3D analysis I do not believe they did. Back in April when others were getting excited about the idea re-entering the Kuparuk I said I expected such re-entry plans to be subtly dropped later, and for me, so far, that ties in with what has happened since then.

[probabilityofsuccess] 05/11/2021 09:01

Hi Johnswan - have you put those questions to the BoD? Grateful if you could share any responses please 👍.

Any answers on this board to all those questions would be complete conjecture, but given the BoD’s experience I trust they will have considered all those things!

[sirmark] 05/11/2021 09:01

Agreed GG, I'm a little nervous though with the share price .... Hoping we get some news next week or we may drift but at as long as we stay over 80p we're still on track :)Come on Jay give me the news big boy

[officerdigby] 05/11/2021 08:53

Hey Forward.
Has not the MACD not unwound by now?
Have we not broken out of the downward channel now?

Perhaps you like to comment on the chart looking better now?

[ngms27] 05/11/2021 08:49

The Kuparuk is a deal sweetener or another failback like Alkaid. You always have to leave some froth for the purchaser.

[johnswan193] 05/11/2021 08:48

If the Kuparuk is so important why aren’t we trying to drill another hole this season? What’s the benefit of waiting, given we’ll know a lot more about TW and Talitha by end of this season? Is this due to rig/crew availability, or inability to manage too many projects in one season? Have they still not been able to come to anything conclusive following the RNS on 17-May, or is the data just not compelling enough to warrant a farm in or placing for this project alone at this time?

[gorgeousgeorge01] 05/11/2021 08:38

"So to me it's 2022 or Houston we have a problem."

Not necessarily. The Kuparuk is too big to be ignored. It's a rather nice problem to have, but I think it's changed the timeframe somewhat. Particularly if we are still talking about a 'full value' exit. I see no reason to exit prematurely. The impatient will likely find plenty of opportunity for profit in the market. As far as I'm concerned, the company should take as much time as they need and I'm confident that they will. I hope that Jay stays with us for as long as humanly possible. Look at what he's achieved for us already just to get to this point.

[ngms27] 05/11/2021 08:17

cezuan, agreed if the well tests at Talitha and TW go well then PANR can add little future value if the data really is that good that majors believe it. Alkaid in my opinion is nothing more than a sideshow / fallback if all else fails.

So to me it's 2022 or Houston we have a problem.

[gorgeousgeorge01] 05/11/2021 07:37

A full value exit in 22/23 would suit me nicely.

[sirmark] 04/11/2021 21:33

We could overtake TLW's market cap tomorrow... incredibly without any booked reserves !! Our board have clearly do so well So far ... let the funding or farm-out news begin !

[scot126] 04/11/2021 21:04

Hi cezuan - the quotes are accurate, no worries on that score. The thing is, I assess the NPV per barrel for PANR's resources is far in excess of $3.10. *You* may be content with the $2.80 "proof" but I'm not convinced the BoD think the journey is over then either.

In addition, my personal research can see the delineation of Theta West (delineation, not development) moving the TRR up to 7bbo or 8bbo. Again, *you* may very well be happy with the 1.4bbo contingent resource figure for Theta West but I'm not convinced the BoD is. The RF guidance is exceptionally low for the North Slope and no work on secondary and tertiary recovery techniques has been done so far. *You* may be content with a RF in the mid-teens but I'm not convinced the BoD is.

Let's see what the winter data reveals, eh? I have no doubt you'll be able to sell your shares at a very decent premium to today's share price if the winter season's activities are successful if summer '22 is indeed a hard target for you.

[jessieduke2] 04/11/2021 20:42

Post 18708 “at different stages of their careers, Phillip Gobe and Jay Cheatham both had day to day operational responsibility for Prudhoe Bay as executives of ARCO.”

Gobe Philip A. 323,973 shares
A pantheon shareholder at 17/9/2021. (Post on Reddit showing shareholder register)

[cezuan] 04/11/2021 20:12

Here are the two 2 central quotes from the CEO (from the most recent webinar):
"20) General Q&A
Q. “How does PANR bridge the credibility gap which sees PANR currently valued at <30c per barrel of contingent resource [scot126 – now c.40c per barrel of contingent resource with 80p PANR SP] v’s Oil Search’s (OSH) investment in 2017 in Horseshoe when they paid $3.10 per barrel?”

A. “Two things. This webinar. And the operations planned for this season (i) re-entering Talitha-A and testing all the zones (ii) drilling 8 or 9 miles northwest at TW, getting into that thicker section that we see on seismic and on the attribute analysis, testing that section and (iii) then in the spring/summer, drilling along the Dalton Highway, putting the gravel down for a full pad development and drilling that horizontal well in the Alkaid anomaly and putting it on stream. In my opinion, that gets us 90% of the way to achieving that [OSH’s $3.10 per contingent barrel in the ground] valuation.”

Also,

"We’re in this to prove it and sell it, a bit like a venture capital or private equity investment."

The 2 quotes in combination imply that they could sell in Summer 2022 for about 90% of the desired valuation via this winter's "proving up"!

Using these exact words, my prior consideration was: Why risk anything by waiting +1 year for +10% of valuation? And even if the share price/offer was lower then; the CEO implies that he cannot deliver much more than what is delivered by then.

(Our views seem to be fundamentally at odds. Either PANR's valuation rests mainly/90% on this winter (+Alkaid + external validation to reach "proving"), or it does not!)

[cezuan] 04/11/2021 20:05

@Scot Thx for the reply which describes what I expect. What am I missing? That is what the last webinar "told me" to believe. The procedure was said to be a) flow testing Talitha + TW, b) getting external validation and c) setting up Alkaid to produce in the summer. THEN sell.
Your plan would diverge from that and all the "sell/go out with a bang/getting 80% of the overalldesired share price valuation until Summer 2022" (roughly quoted) comments from the CEO during the webinar pretty much completely.
I hold my shares because of those "Summer 2022" comments.

[scot126] 04/11/2021 19:57

Hi cezuan - I certainly follow the logic of your post #18763. I'd have greater sympathy for it if I believed the 21/22 winter programme advanced PANR as far up the value add curve as you appear to believe it will. Just a personal view, but all else being equal I think it'll be mid '23 before the company *voluntarily* puts itself up for sale. *If* something happens before then, my guess is that it'll be initiated by an external party.

PS This evenings posts are, of course, predicated on successful results from the 21/22 season.

[johnswan193] 04/11/2021 18:30

Scot, I have never commented on oil/water wet, choice of chemicals and fluids etc. as that's not something I know much about. I have however managed to call the Kuparuk situation correctly over the past 6 months or so - see referenced posts below. It is only recently that you have concluded the same.

In the event of material success at Talitha an/or TW - how much do you think an untested Kuparuk would get in the way of negotiating a sale of the company? I think it depends very much on the extent of the success and the economics of any bid.

Say if we have material success at Talitha and/or TW, and remain independent for another year, then it may of course make sense to drill the Kuparuk (as part of Talitha 2?) in addition to further appraisals of successful zones. Likewise if we see failure at Talitha/TW, it then offers another roll of the dice.

Finally, and Jonny asked this recently about the SFS, see RNS extract below from 17-May-21 - why have we still not heard any more since then? (Note the Kuparuk appeared as a large reservoir in the 3D model shown at the most recent webinar, but my recollection is that they did not say much about it).

RNS 17-May-21

"Analysis continues on the SMD, SFS and Kuparuk zones encountered at Talitha #A. The Company will announce key conclusions from those horizons when work is completed".

Post 11548 on 19-Apr-21:

I expect plans to revisit the Kuparuk in the future will be subtly dropped later.

Post 13275 on 17-May-21:

Don't forget during the Kuparuk drill they upgraded recoverable estimates to offset the negative impact of delays and operational issues. This upgrade was never referred to again - instead all future references after the zone failed to flow only referred to initial recoverable estimates, which they stated would now be downgraded. IMO it is highly unlikely we'll drill that zone again, at least not until other targets are done first.

Post 14619 on 15-Jun-21:

Alkaid supposedly proven already and TW huge so makes sense to go after both of those before trying anything to assess Kuparuk on standalone basis. I fully expect them to flow test the cased zones next season and hopefully they'll also do something at either TW or Alkaid. Anybody know what is supposed to be the optimal location for the Kuparuk and is it possible they revisit it as part of a drill at TW/Alkaid given they can't re-enter at Talitha without a new hole?

Post 16816 on 31-Aug-21:

As predicted previously, it doesn't sound as though they'll be going back to the Kuparuk anytime soon and won't be targeted at TW or Alkaid. Expect it will be kept on reserve as the final roll of the dice if all else fails. Have not yet fully read what was written on Reddit about it at first glance the conclusion appeared to go against what management had suggested about expected recoverables to be lower than initially suggested.

[cezuan] 04/11/2021 18:29

@Scot Reading "autumn 2023", I cannot but think of all the possible scenarios the oil market may deteriorate in until then. I don't mean to open that can of worms, but that's so far out that at least some would favor "macro" before "micro" considerations here.

To me, establishing the Theta/Talitha valuations after this winter's drillings is what it's about. Then getting out before it's too late. There are too many external risks - that's the current consensus view, I think - that an additional year just to up 1 partial valuation (that has downside risk, too) doesn't seem favorable from a shareholder perspective imo.

[michaelsadvfn] 04/11/2021 18:28

Interesting comment on the Kuparuk Scot. Whether this management or a future owner of the Company gets around to proving up the Kuparuk will ultimately depend on when they decide to retire, non?
The earliest they could get around to investigating the Kuparuk would be during the 2022/23 winter season, perhaps that will be the plan?