Oxus Gold Share Discussion Threads

[wulber] 20/11/2015 09:24

The maths boys and girls....

Calunius (it is thought)on average take 6 - 8 times their investment which is c. $35 - 50 mn

Share in issue 715 mn

The 2012 professional value by E&Y and WAI was $552.5 - $1250 mn

There is a further 3 years of revenues / profits whilst arbitration has been ongoing to add for AGF, plus the loss from Khandiza which would have been a producing mine by now, so a guestimate gross up @ 5%, 7.5, 10% pa over last 4 years.


At $552 - $50 / 1.52 ($/£)/ 715 = £0.46 ps
At $1250 - $50 / 1.52 ($/£)/ 715 = £1.10 ps
At $1500 - $50 / 1.52 ($/£)/ 715 = £1.33 ps
At $1750 - $50 / 1.52 ($/£)/ 715 = £1.56 ps

Now this is both the low and top end valuations but accounts for Khandiza and 50% OXS share in AGF

These could be scaled back and NO, we don't know the outcome, but just shows peoples expectations as wild as they may seem do have an underpinning reasoning.

Also, just because the share price is at 4p and mkt cap is c. £28 mn, this has no bearing on the award whatsoever. The stock is priced as an empty shell with a small cash element so you must see through the "there's no way we would get +50p cos' their 4p now". The market cannot price a share where they don't know the outcome and in all honesty I think MM's are keeping flat books of stock due to the risk of news breaking anytime.

AIMHO, DYOR, NAI

[maytrees] 20/11/2015 09:22

A test bid share price (25000) is 3.86p atm though I'm not selling

[maytrees] 20/11/2015 09:21

Good morning GS and all

Interesting that no trades published so far. I had expected some institutional selling by those who have financed OXS and received shares recently.

I imagine that most investors have taken their positions and wait.

[giant steps] 20/11/2015 09:16

O/T

WG, all is in hand, the early bird will get the worm

[weegeordie] 20/11/2015 09:14

I have the kun filtered. A new handle and seems to know it all. I wonder how many other aliases he has!

[giant steps] 20/11/2015 09:13

While it's quiet ...

[giant steps] 20/11/2015 09:07

OXS volume on aim NIL, on isdx NIL

[kun aguero1] 20/11/2015 09:05

blueblood, ok mate, but you never know, Santa just might deliver.

[blueblood] 20/11/2015 08:53

Sorry kun You can believe what you like but anything above 15p would be a real positive result imo. We ain't gonna see share price anywhere near some of the fanciful levels spouted on here.

[thehitman1] 20/11/2015 08:49

I say £1.5350 soon.

[kun aguero1] 20/11/2015 08:36

The price remaining at this level says the deal done theory is likely to be proved wrong. Deal in progress? who knows.

[kun aguero1] 20/11/2015 08:33

£2 or more is my opinion, others have theirs, is that a crime blueblood? or do we all have to agree with an expert like you?

This "Gimp" probably holds more than you, who knows? who cares if I have sold out or not, why be so aggressively personal?.

[kun aguero1] 20/11/2015 08:29

blueblood you are a nasty piece of work aren't you.

[nick2412] 20/11/2015 08:22

You never know, but this is an annual event (since 1994) rather than any new initiative. I am confident OXS are just awaiting a decision from the UNCITRAL panel and are unlikely to have entered late stage negotiations with the Uzbeks.

It is good though that there are these contract prospects because if OXS gets an award then there will be incentives and pressure for Uzbekistan to cough up quickly.

[blueblood] 20/11/2015 08:20

Says the gimp who was spouting £1+ a few days ago.. maybe the kun has sold out!

[kun aguero1] 20/11/2015 08:13

if any of this tripe was anywhere near true, do you think the price would be where it is, IGNORE.

[wulber] 20/11/2015 08:08

35p, 50p and 70p is my ideal targets, with personal milestones at each level.Lets see! X

[wulber] 20/11/2015 08:03

Don't get me wrong - me too!

[luckyman3] 20/11/2015 07:35

35p a share after costs would do me just fine.

[wulber] 20/11/2015 07:17

6-8 times there investment plus 715 mn shares in issue.

[wulber] 20/11/2015 07:16

I make Caluna's share $35-50 mn

[99jeremiah] 20/11/2015 03:43

More like 35p IMO, with Calunius and 750m shares to factor in.

[wulber] 20/11/2015 00:10

Top end award of $1250 mn in 2012 when calculated by EY and WAI @ 7% is probably more like $1500, so a 40% award would be c. 53p after costs.?

[ronconomics] 19/11/2015 22:49

Oh that sounds promising. I'll get the crisps in .