Oxford Pharm Gp Share Discussion Threads

[funkmasterp12] 14/4/2015 07:57

Joined the party here yesterday, GLA!

[cheshire man] 08/4/2015 14:14

10p on the bid,,,,,,,,just keeps ticking up :-)

[doodlebug4] 27/3/2015 18:35

Copied from MAM;

"dreamcatcher - 27 Mar 2015 16:16 - 158 of 158

Oxford Pharmascience Group PLC (OXP.GB:ISD) set a new 52-week high during today's trading session when it reached 10.19. Over this period, the share price is up 70.73%."

[burbelly] 27/3/2015 10:35

I've had my rose tinted glasses put in platinum frames now

[cheshire man] 27/3/2015 10:24

Very happy with the news released today,,,,,,,,,top sliced a few yesterday after buying in Jan (fantastic return) will continue to hold for the long term,,,,,,,or until the story changes :-)DYOR

[timbo003] 27/3/2015 09:53

Compare and contrast the current market cap (£100m) with that of Pozen





Pozen current market cap is $245M dollars (circa £150M), they are profitable with actual sales, the lead product is Vimovo which is a GI safe Naproxen product with sales of $175-$200m

If OXP could steal half of Vimovo's market, they may acheive sales of £60m.
Assume a net royalty 10% (maximum)
So Gross profit might be £6M and first sales are probably 3 or 4 years away.

If you don't risk adjust that £6M, then their market cap is 16X projected gross profit in 4 years time.

Surely that's expensive by any measure, even for those wearing rose tinted specs

[doodlebug4] 27/3/2015 08:51

RNS Number : 6350I

Oxford Pharmascience Group PLC

27 March 2015

Successful Pilot Clinical Study of

Immediate Release OXPzero(TM) Naproxen

Oxford Pharmascience, the specialty pharmaceutical company that redevelops medicines to make them better, safer and easier to take, today announces that the pilot comparative pharmacokinetics ("PK") study of OXPzero(TM) Naproxen ("OXP 005"), which commenced on 5 March, has been successful and the headline data from the trial demonstrates bioequivalence of OXP005 to Naprosyn(R) (generic naproxen).

OXPzero(TM) Naproxen aims to deliver 250mg of reduced gastric irritation naproxen via the Company's patent protected OXPzero(TM) technology in an immediate release oral formulation in order to provide a significantly reduced gastrointestinal (GI) side effect profile compared to standard naproxen tablets.

The headline PK data showed results which demonstrate bioequivalence and that the OXPzero(TM)technology has been successfully optimised to enable immediate and complete drug release.

Full results of the study will be published in the following weeks. Based on this data, the company will now progress to a proof of concept endoscopy study to demonstrate the reduced GI irritation benefit of OXPzero(TM) Naproxen, as was previously demonstrated for OXPzero(TM) Ibuprofen in an earlier formulation.

Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) are one of the most widely used classes of drugs, with combined annual sales in excess of $12 billion and more than 30 million users worldwide consuming NSAIDs each day (source: Evaluate Pharma). Chronic use of NSAIDs causes well-documented GI side effects, including ulcers and bleeding, and leads to significant morbidity and mortality in a substantial number of patients, with significant associated healthcare costs. The OXPzero(TM) platform technology reduces these risks and is being selectively applied to the most commonly used NSAID molecules, namely ibuprofen, naproxen, diclofenac and aspirin.

Marcelo Bravo, Chief Executive Officer of Oxford Pharmascience commented:

"Demonstrating the bioequivalence of immediate release OXPzero(TM) Naproxen is a great result and a significant milestone for Oxford Pharmascience. This allows us to proceed with confidence to the endoscopy trial to demonstrate the reduced gastric irritation benefit of OXPzero(TM) Naproxen, and also confirms that the technology has been successfully optimised to achieve immediate and complete drug release. Oxford Pharmascience will now continue to progress confidently with our clinical programmes for both OXPzero(TM) Naproxen and OXPzero(TM) Ibuprofen."

Further information about the study:

The randomised pilot PK study, which was conducted by Quotient Clinical in the UK, was a single-dose, two arm study between OXPzero(TM) Naproxen and the reference Naprosyn(R) 250mg tablets with ten subjects in each arm. Headline PK data show mean AUC (Area Under the Curve or total drug exposure over time) and mean C(max) (maximum serum concentration) results meet the bioequivalence criteria, demonstrating that the OXPzero(TM) technology has been successfully optimised to enable immediate and complete drug release. Further details about the study can be found at www.ClinicalTrials.gov, ref: NCT02351024.

[timbo003] 27/3/2015 08:28

They have demonstrated bioequivalence, which is good news (so far), now they have to demonstrate that there is a clinically meaningful reduction in GI damage before they can claim that they have demonstrated proof of concept

A couple of other points to note:

* the PK study used just 10 volunteers, so it is a pilot study so they will need to complete a larger study (n = 24 ) for regulatory purposes. Just because it has been shown to be bioequivalent in a small study does not necessarily mean that they will show bioequivalence in an adequately powered study.

* Acceptable bioequivalent limits for T/R are 80% - 125%, these are wide limits, where in the range did the OXP product fall, was it just over 80%, what are the chances of getting within the limits in the mandatory pivotal study?

The market cap is now £100M. Is the market already pricing in a blue sky scenario of successful proof of concept, signing up with a marketing partner, a successful pivotal clinical program and submitting a regulatory file and obtaining regulatory approval?

I think it probably is.

[barcelona111] 24/3/2015 00:27

Ha brilliant lol

[burbelly] 23/3/2015 20:42

behind the counter at boots?

[barcelona111] 23/3/2015 17:45

Where's nice but dim???pmsl

[fillipe] 18/3/2015 17:03

N+1 Singer 17/03/2015 (CORP) eps - 2015, 1.40p. 2016, 1.90p.

That would be more than just rather nice!

f

[doodlebug4] 18/3/2015 16:37

Dreamcatcher flagged up OXP on MAM in September 2012 - so well done DC!


"dreamcatcher - 18 Mar 2015 16:01 - 156 of 156

Oxford Pharmascience Group PLC (OXP:LSE) set a new 52-week high during today's trading session when it reached 8.48. Over this period, the share price is up 93.83%."

[timbo003] 18/3/2015 10:35

It is worth noting that later this month investors will hear only half the results from the on going clinical study with Naproxen. The PK results are due to be announced by end of March, the Endoscopy results will be announced later on in H1 Both PK results and endoscopy results need to be successful for the product to be acceptable.

Even if the PK results do show bioequivalence, they might still be deemed unacceptable by marketing partners. For example, if the bioavailability (F) were 81% compared to the reference, technically this would make it bioequivalent, but at the same time it would mean that the volunteers (and ultimately patients) would only be obtaining 81% of the intended dose, therefore the OXP formulation may well be less effective than the reference for pain relief. Also I doubt if any potential partners would be impressed if the absorption were significantly slower than the reference (as seen in the previous study with ibuprofen). A slow onset for analgesia is not a good marketing claim for an analgesic!

The reality is that there is almost certainly going to be a direct relationship between GI safety profile and amount of drug absorbed, i.e. if OXP manage to improve GI safety it will be at the expense of amount of drug available, I guess the question is, will the current test formula be good enough to satisfy both criteria when one if inversely related to the other.

[fillipe] 18/3/2015 09:59

Looking firmer over 8p ....new all-time high, I think.

f

[timbo003] 10/3/2015 22:08

Pozen (mentioned a couple of times before on this thread) reported year end results yesterday


This is significant as Pozen’s main product is “Vimovo”, a safer Naproxen tablet (with good clinical data), which would be a major competitor for OXP’s Nsaid products, should they ever get to market.

Vimovo tablets consist of enteric coated Naproxen and immediate release omeprazole (a proton pump inhibitor commonly used in OTC antacid medicines.



There is some commentary on the results (and Vimovo sales) here (abstract copied below):


The sales numbers and projections are interesting and are presumably what OXP would aspire to if they were to gain approvals:




…Quick Vimovo Update…

After four years of diddling around with AstraZeneca in the U.S., sales of Vimovo finally look like they on the upswing. Horizon reported $163.0 million in sales of Vimovo during 2014. That was nearly quadruple what AstraZeneca did with the drug in the U.S. during 2013. U.S. sales of Vimovo in the fourth quarter at $43.3 million were flat with the third quarter 2014 of $43.2 million. From a prescription standpoint, Vimovo growth has leveled out.

Prescriptions were up only 3% sequentially from the third quarter to the fourth quarter 2014. Horizon’s strategy is to continue to take aggressive price increases on the drug to maintain growth. Vimovo is now incredibly expensive, at roughly $25 per day; but Horizon has instituted a “prescriptions made easy” program to offer co-pay and cost-assistance. Horizon has also increase the size of the sales force promoting the drug by 75 reps to 325. However, we would not be surprised to see Vimovo U.S. sales stall at around $175-200 million simply based on pricing pressure and competition. Nevertheless, Pozen’s 10% royalty on U.S. Vimovo sales is still providing meaningful cash flow to the company.

Vimovo sales outside the U.S. have been fairly consistent at around $20 million per quarter. We anticipate that this level will be maintained in 2015. As such, for 2015 we model worldwide Vimovo sales at $270 million. We note the royalty rate on Ex-U.S. sales jumps to 10% starting in 2016. We would also not be surprised to see AstraZeneca sell Vimovo rights outside the U.S. to a smaller organization that can do with sales what Horizon is doing in the U.S. This would be very good news for Pozen. The company just received another patent on Vimovo that will protect exclusivity out until October 2031.

[fillipe] 09/3/2015 09:18

Thanks timbo, I can appreciate that and also that also all other brokers forecasts are matters of opinion and forecast, etc. Hopefully they will turn out to the good. There must be elements of some strong confidence in putting the numbers forward.

f

[timbo003] 09/3/2015 08:48

fillipe, the Singers forecast will not be risk adjusted, so it assumes that there is a 100% certainty that OXP signs a deal with a partner in 2015 and received milestone payments in 2016. Needless to say that in reality, neither of these events are anywhere near a 100% certainty.

[fillipe] 09/3/2015 08:34

2016 eps 1.9p. OXP should be more like 38p than the current 8p, imo!

N+1 Singer's new CORP forecast 6-3-2015 going forward now has 2016 eps at 1.9p and reiterates 1.4p for 2015.

The recent uptick looks to be just the starter on the menu.

gla

f

[l0wrdr] 06/3/2015 09:31

First 100k buy of the day !

[saturn5] 05/3/2015 16:40

might be soon leaving 8 to 10

good research with upcoming prospects

[l0wrdr] 05/3/2015 16:10

And i would say the 100k and 50k buyer from earlier agrees with me.The 2mill sale is probably what took the wind out if the rise today. I dont see why we wouldnt rise again tomorrow. 2015 is going to be an exciting year for this company

[l0wrdr] 05/3/2015 16:08

Bought in earlier on a quick bit of research and have since been looking more in to this. Valued at just under £80million this co has the potential to make holders a lot of money ! Why would a massive pharmaceutical company not just pay pocket change for this technology once its proven? They would rather own it than lose out on sales to a better more safe alternative

[fillipe] 05/3/2015 13:50

Must be some insti buying thro......a lot of 100k and 50k trades all at around the same time....minutes after one another and the full ask being paid.....currently 7.9p, with few sells.

f