Oxford Instruments Share Discussion Threads

[koetser] 03/2/2015 12:21

bottled it closed my short

[alter ego] 03/2/2015 10:42

koetser 2 Feb "This company is f..ked"

koetser 3 Feb "Might close my short and buy"

I do appreciate people with strong principles posting balanced opinions.

[koetser] 03/2/2015 10:31

looks like the rot has stopped and a bottom has been found. Might close my short and buy ;-)

[koetser] 02/2/2015 22:37

This company is f..ked management expanded to quickly believed their own s..t smelled like roses

[koetser] 02/2/2015 21:23

I genuinely feel sorry for investors as I am sure ther are those out there that love this share ....

[koetser] 02/2/2015 20:48

Motley fool agrees says it is overvalued on a forward P/E ratio. another 30% drop in my opinion

[undervaluedassets] 02/2/2015 16:01

PE was fancy even for a growth stock.

Now that the company is is likely to shrink medium term the PE (21 as I write) is still a bit stretched.

Did they overpay for recent camera aquisition? I can never work these things out. but if they did what was supposed to be an asset is suddenly a liability.

could have further to fall.

[koetser] 30/1/2015 14:35

I do not believe that Russia and Japan are the only reasons for poor revenue and profit performance as Russia was only ever 5% of revenue. Japan slow growth is something that should have been factored in. I think that organic growth is low, this in combination with rapid overexpansion means they need to reduce staff and overheads which is usually a viscious circle ....

[meijiman] 30/1/2015 12:35

yes I agree-clearly Japan and Russia are events outside his control but this is not looking great. I have some so I'm not happy but probably didn't do enough DD. This is not even a poor man's Renishaw!

[koetser] 30/1/2015 11:49

absolutely ... he has got ahead of himself and left the company exposed heavily to any downturn in demand ....

[meijiman] 30/1/2015 11:46

the one who wants 'laying off' is the ceo!

[koetser] 30/1/2015 11:18

Ok cheers Simon, I think after Investec noted that there was this debt uncertainty I will probably hold my short till it hits 6.00.
I think when there is this kind of uncertainty in an R&D firm there is a lot of disruption to development which can cause problems especially if they are going to lay people off.
I suspect the 7.00 support will be broken soon.

[simon gordon] 30/1/2015 11:14

Koester,

I presume if need be, for a cost, they'd change the loan covenants.

I was thinking 700p would be support but if there is debt uncertainty then 600p is doable.

Think at some point they'll recover due to the underlying quality.

[koetser] 30/1/2015 10:51

Simon,

I am beginning to get the picture, so they many need to do a cash call soon or extend their credit facility either way they seem to be leaking cash ....

What is your opinion of the stock?
I shorted this after quarter update because I thought the share price is going only one way from a chart point of view. Will need to do more research into this company if I want to hold onto short ...

[simon gordon] 30/1/2015 10:43

CEO took a risk buying Andor with bank debt, would have been more sensible to place some shares to cover some of the cost.

Interims - 11/14:

Balance Sheet

At the half year end, net debt was GBP137.5 million (2013: net cash GBP32.2 million). Cash outflow in the period was GBP13.2 million (2013: GBP7.0 million). The Group has total committed facilities of GBP169.5 million. This comprises GBP100 million in the form of a revolving credit facility with a club of banks, a GBP25 million 7 year fixed interest loan with the European Investment Bank which was drawn down in August 2013, and a GBP44.5 million 7 year fixed interest loan from Pricoa which was drawn down in March 2014. The revolving credit facility is extendable to GBP150 million by mutual consent, and expires in December 2018.

As calculated under IAS19, the defined benefit pension deficit has increased by GBP8.4 million to GBP54.7 million since 31 March 2014. Since then, assets have increased by 6.8% to GBP209.9 million while liabilities have increased by 8.9% to GBP264.6 million as a result of the decrease in interest rates since the half year end.

[koetser] 30/1/2015 10:36

whats going on any news

[meijiman] 30/1/2015 09:46

Good questions koetser. I think the main issues here are that the rating got ahead of reality so was always heading for a fall once growth slowed. At 1600/1700p the multiple was well over 20x. Unlike say Renishaw this company has hit some headwinds notably Japan and Russia which in fairness are rather outside their control.
1. Gross gearing and net gearing are over 100%-this reflects not only Andor but other acquisitions such as RMG and Roentgenalytik in Germany. Given these deals it was surprising revenues had markedly slowed by mid 2014.I wonder if these deals were to mask slowing organic growth? Interest cover id OK so we are not looking at massive stress but it clearly limits options for more 'deals'.
2. I think if the Andor deal was done today the price would be rather lower -the business cost £175m cash and significantly increased the company's borrowings via two new facilities, one of £100m and one of £60m.
Think this share will move sideways for a while.
Bottom line is that is worth much less than half of what it was despite the acquisition of ~Andor.

[koetser] 29/1/2015 22:32

How much did they pay and what is the debt

[meijiman] 29/1/2015 22:09

Pathetic management -should be fired forthwith. Absurd acquisition-paid way over the odds. Now heavily indebted -you couldn't make it up.

[koetser] 29/1/2015 22:00

What does it say about Oxford instruments

[jeffcranbounre] 29/1/2015 20:19

It’s a downgrade for Oxford Instruments #OXIG

Podcast>

[koetser] 29/1/2015 15:46

possible cash call in June/July ....

[koetser] 29/1/2015 15:45

StockMarketWire.com - Investec has downgraded its recommendation on tech group Oxford Instruments [LON:OXIG] to 'hold' from 'buy' in a note to investors, today. The broker said: "The group still requires a resumption of growth in demand to lift revenues and margins, but patience and nerve will be needed as net debt approaches covenant limits before falling again from September 2015." Investec also made a hefty cut to its target price, which now stands at 815 pence a share (previously 1,280 pence), implying a somewhat modest forecast total return of 5.5 per cent. The stock has fallen by almost 30 per cent since releasing its latest trading statement, on 22 January - See more at: hxxp://www.stockmarketwire.com/article/4967716/Oxford-Instruments-downgraded-by-Investec.html#sthash.hPqSrAif.dpuf

[koetser] 29/1/2015 15:45

StockMarketWire.com - Investec has downgraded its recommendation on tech group Oxford Instruments [LON:OXIG] to 'hold' from 'buy' in a note to investors, today. The broker said: "The group still requires a resumption of growth in demand to lift revenues and margins, but patience and nerve will be needed as net debt approaches covenant limits before falling again from September 2015." Investec also made a hefty cut to its target price, which now stands at 815 pence a share (previously 1,280 pence), implying a somewhat modest forecast total return of 5.5 per cent. The stock has fallen by almost 30 per cent since releasing its latest trading statement, on 22 January - See more at: hxxp://www.stockmarketwire.com/article/4967716/Oxford-Instruments-downgraded-by-Investec.html#sthash.hPqSrAif.dpuf

[koetser] 28/1/2015 10:47

interesting price movements today. kept my short open even after big spike upwards this morning