Oxford Biomedica Share Discussion Threads

[philh75] 23/4/2024 13:26

Should be able to Harry, a quick scan of the index and there are a few between 300/400m market cap, I believe we needed 650 when we entered last year. Bar is a lot lower.

[harry s truman] 23/4/2024 12:47

Perhaps Phil, but I would have thought that on Monday they will make a very clear distinction between which new programmes are new work won by the sales team and which came as part of the ABL purchase.

If they don't do that then at the H1 results in September it might look like the rate of new work was tailing off.

I'm just passing time now and focussing on Monday morning, which of course we are all waiting for.

The big loss for '23 has already been telegraphed, but the interesting part is going to be the forecast for '24 with Q1 already closed.

My target for this year is still to get back into the FT250. I think they can achieve that on what they have forecast already, but they may need to post proof at the interims first. If something else new / big / half expected comes in on top of what we know then I think they will breeze it.

[philh75] 23/4/2024 11:44

Or it could be Frank just wanted to maximise the number of programs he could say they had, and most of them were coming in over the last two months.

[harry s truman] 23/4/2024 11:10

I don't understand how Numis justify their view. I know what their view is, as it was quoted in The Times, and they say (in many more words) that they don't think that OXB can do what their forecasts / projections say in this economy.

Then we have what OXB have told us:-

The cash position at 31 December 2023 was £103.7 million.
IM are putting in Euro 10m to fund the ABL transition.
I'm assuming that converting some of Boston to a US Lentivector hub isn't going to be cheap, but there were millions of that already spent last year.
£126 to £134 million in revenue this year with broadly breakeven EBITDA.

That's not a 180p per share valuation of £180m market cap on 100m shares vs £217m market cap today, which has long had me wondering where Numis are getting their ideas from as it doesn't seem to be OXB.

My theory floated here that Frank gave almost 2 months notice (when we normally get 2 or 3 weeks) was that it was either a Frank thing or that he was waiting for something which he would like to happen before the results.

I appreciate that's a bit like forecasting that it will either rain or go dark, but there is some precedent here from the interims that Frank likes to put on a good show.

So, if there is anything in that idea then 3 days for something to happen before, but it could also be signed now - ready to come out as a headline on Monday.

Yes this is a glass half full thing, but just like there could be a black swan event (with any company) there could also be a white swan event which changes everything for the better.

For the white swan event then what could we predict which we have already had OXB tell us half the story of?

Well whatever Serum want and the coded recent RNS about a new partner preparing for commercial supply would be 2 easy starters.

[steeplejack] 23/4/2024 10:47

Stifel:'With a primary focus on best execution, we operate solely for the interest of our clients with no proprietary trading.'This is pretty unusual nowadays and i find it very reassuring.Good research and advice to clients rather than working the book.it is odd that Stifel should put out a note ahead of updated guidance next Monday.Ordinarily the analyst concerned might be expected to liaise with Oxford Biomedica ahead of publication,establish and refine certain points etc.Anyway i'm inclined to interpret the timing of Stifel's buy recommendation as reassuring ahead of the prelims....as has the market given recent price strength.

[harry s truman] 23/4/2024 09:53

We know from Phil's link the other day that OXB had hosted Peel Hunt (previous house broker) with a site tour / charm offensive. To me it would seem very odd if only PH had received that invitation / courtesy.

RBC (new house broker) have updated recently, but that I would expect - as surely it's part of their job to sell OXB to the market.

More puzzling for me is why Stifel and now PG have updated literally days before the results where OXB provide full disclosure of figures, prospects and are open to the analysts in a much more detailed briefing than we get to see / hear in the webcast call on results day.

So why have 2 of them updated just before, rather than waiting a week and reporting based upon the full results?

My only explanation (aka guess) is that both realised that the previous view of hold / wait for the big post-covid cash burn period to end has quite obviously happened now, and that they don't want to look too far out of step when they put a full note out after the results.

I think we are still anchored by Numis with their recent 180p target which to my mind bears no relation to anything OXB have said publicly, but hopefully Monday will make Numis look irrelevant.

[chillpill] 23/4/2024 08:08

No I don’t but reported on Bloomberg.

[mirabeau] 23/4/2024 07:32

cp

Do you have a link fella?

[chillpill] 23/4/2024 07:30

Good to see Panmure Gordon came out with a 478p pt note yesterday.

Hopefully they can break the 220p price resistance with results.

[harry s truman] 22/4/2024 20:45

Too difficult to guess Gareth.

At the interims (I think) Stuart said that he was talking to the auditors about more frequent reporting. At the time I thought that meant they were moving to quarterly reporting and if they do that then I think it would help our rehabilitation back into the FT250 (assuming that they continue on the path they're on).

That said, if they simply continue with the frequent business updates via RNS, then that's good enough for me.

A week today we should all be very pleased. Many of us can recall a lot of previous "transformational years" which actually weren't that transformational. This seems to be the real deal.

The other day I mentioned OXB programmes (wasn't it 30 this time last year and 41 at the interims? I think I wrote that anyway) and I was suggesting that really OXB should be on 50+ programmes by now, but I actually think it's more.

I'm cautious to go out on a limb, but if you think about it then they had 41 six months ago, they have since added everything ABL had on the go to that total, plus whatever Seb's team has sold in the last 6 months.

Seb told us that compared to his past experience (presumably he meant Merck) OXB's win rate is amazing. Two enquiries per week and he was able to win 11 whilst turning away people who wanted it "quick and dirty"?

Which leads us to what a programme is worth to OXB per year when you have so many running in parallel, but obviously enough for them to up growth from better than 30% to better than 35%.

[gareth jones] 22/4/2024 19:37

The futures bright, the futures....?

[steeplejack] 22/4/2024 18:53

Two back to back trading days of above average volume does indeed suggest we’re building nicely.

Stifel have sizeable coverage of small,mid caps companies globally but especially in the US.
It describes its UK equity research analysts as ‘recognized leaders in providing in-depth investment analysis and recommendations on small and mid-cap stock across 11 sectors’.A solid credible buy recommendation is more than welcome in stimulating an appreciation of OXB’s prospects which, along with some other UK SMEs, has suffered more from disinterest than investor scepticism.

[supernumerary] 22/4/2024 18:47

250K buy in the afternoon - £500K - somebody's convinced.

[harry s truman] 22/4/2024 18:21

705,228 shares traded which is quite a big day for OXB these days. Finished 4.7% up, which suggests to me that there were more wanting to buy than sell at this price.

Will be interesting to see how the next 4 days go. If it continues like this then maybe the penny is finally beginning to drop about the prospects which the company broadcasts whenever it has the chance.

Hard to believe that it's all down to Stifel rerating last week, but you never know.

[ch1ck] 22/4/2024 13:20

It look to have built a bit of support. A nice move from here would be great

[harry s truman] 22/4/2024 11:14

Brucie,

I am open to persuasion (honestly) just tell me the bad news lurking here.

Had OXB not been fortunate enough to go into the post-covid economy with a massive cash pile then it could have been very bad. We all know the story - sector wide the work went away and the cost of everything went up - including loan interest.

No company can see its regular trade decimated by halts and restriction as costs rise and not be hit by it.

I haven't studied Homology in depth, but I would be surprised if the covid / post covid effects weren't the straw which eventually broke their business - and of course lost us a major customer.

So yes we know that, but where is the OXB specific bad news in having a LV with 3x the industry yield and an AAV with 10x. Lots of safety data to reassure prospective customers that not only can we produce what we promise, but we can show patient safety years too.

A week today is our closure on a terrible time when the world went mad and was led by sheep, but that's the end of it. Somewhere north of £50m will have gone up in smoke during 2023, but it ends at that. Very fortunately we had it to burn.

We know there have been some big sellers (especially in US funds) but that's not because they know something bad about OXB, it's because they either needed the money or couldn't hold anymore as OXB went below a certain market cap or got booted from an index.

If there was any bad news here - even mud which didn't really carry much credence - then badger's thread of truth would be very busy.

OXB's prospects look brighter than I can ever remember - and I go back a long way, but I'm not going celebrate anything until we are back above last year's share price high - which was for a much smaller company which wasn't as profitable. A more than 50% discount on that price is insane.

[brucie5] 22/4/2024 09:51

Yes - all looking present and correct for BO; but beware the Monty Python effect "No-one Expects!" (the Spanish Inquisition): quite a few positive assumptions being built in here by accumulators including myself, partly relying on Harry's excellent, but hardly disinterested narrative. So beware the Observer Effect. The greater uncertainty may lie in how the market itself receives next week's results.

That said, like several others here, I'm bullish on the recovery prospects and notice that the share price has been toying with a BO of the 200 wma, though this is far from a confirmed signal. 2.20 was the resistance point since last November, when the share price first hit bottom at 1.70p. So that would be a first support to clear.

Upside from that point, I see nothing until £3 with the greater bowl up to the £4 level as previously stated.

But these are just tea leaves, obviously, so NAI.

[northstand] 22/4/2024 08:31

Morning all,well that's me done for now,been buying last week and just had my last order filled this morning.
Feel a bit privileged that I was able to fill this years Isa at these prices before the results are made public next Monday.
The last couple of years have been quite depressing for us all if you are just looking at the share price but behind the scenes things seem to be happening,I really hope that on Monday OXB's management are going to shove some great forward looking figures & statements right up those analysts rear ends and say 'right then disbelievers,analyse this!

[mirabeau] 22/4/2024 08:29

What's holding this back? Plenty of net cash and expanding its reach and yet the trading volumes are woeful for such an exciting company. Maybe it's the company's foray into Covid vaccine tosh that damaged its reputation.

I see OXB as a superb recovery stock if they can land material contracts

[harry s truman] 21/4/2024 11:40

Got to be careful that you compare eggs with eggs Phil.

I think the possibilities are way beyond what most people can accept, given the recent history of what we went through with covid restrictions / emergency laws and the effect that had on our business. I think we can all understand that caution from outsiders.

Also, whether or not OXB can fully leverage what capacity they have now very much depends upon Seb's sales team. Personally I'm a believer in that, but we will get a very good idea a week tomorrow on where we are and if the sales momentum is continuing (which I expect it to).

I'd caution against using gross area figures, remembering (as an example) that OXB referred to over half the Boston facility as a "blank canvas" (to me that meant empty building). That wasn't because we were robbed, it was simply that for the stage Homology were at with their trial drugs when we bought the facility from them, they didn't need any more of it than what they were using (so why spend the money?). To configure that in whatever way OXB want is quite a bit of time and money, but of course that will be spending money now to earn even more later.

Do you remember the Lyon quote from purchase time? "The ABL Lyon site is located in Gerland Bio-Disctict in South of Lyon and has been integrated to the ABL manufacturing network in 2018. The site covers 6500 sq meters of lab, offices and technical areas including 750sq meters GMP manufacturing suites, 100m² development areas for USP and DSP, 110m² of control quality lab.".

(UpStream Processing / DownStream Processing)

Different units, but you see only a rough 10th of the gross figure is production / manufacturing? Whereas phase 1 OxBox would have been almost completely production until we converted part of it to a fill / finish suite (which is still technically production). But regardless of that, in the UK I understood OxBox to be production, Yarnton production (initially just for Novartis I seem to remember), Harrow House is half and half whilst the rest is offices and labs for process development and such.

What I'm saying is unless they break it down then it's tough to compare.

I'm pretty certain (from memory again) that Lyon is the site where the split between labs and production couldn't have been better for our current need because it's mostly labs (ideal for our upstream / early stage process development work which is at capacity in Oxford).

I think Strasbourg (Transgene's old facility) is the other way and of the 4,900sqm only a tenth of that is labs. That would come into its own a little later.

IM are putting 10m in to make sure that the transition is as close to ideal as possible for OXB.

It should work out very well.

[philh75] 21/4/2024 08:11

Website updated to include France metrics


Oxford - 94,000 sq ft, 20,000 sq ft further expansion
Boston - 91,000 sq ft
Lyon - 69,900 sq ft (6500 sq m)
Strasbourg - 52,700 sq ft (4900 sq m)

3 times bigger, makes oxbox expansion less important/impactful at 20,000 sq m? Unless they have already converted some of it?

[philh75] 20/4/2024 22:08

ABL is a pure play contract development and manufacturing organization (CDMO) specialized in the development and manufacturing of viral vectors for vaccine candidates, gene and cancer therapies.

We are collaborating with ABL to develop gene therapy manufacturing processes that enable us to control the development and manufacture of our pipeline products in an end-to-end manner.

Initially we will co-develop manufacturing technologies for AAV-based gene therapy products, after which we have an exclusive option to secure process development capacity and laboratory space within ABL’s facility. This will enable us to further develop and scale-up manufacturing technologies for our next generation AAV vectors and AAV-based products, including our ALIGATER platform.

ABL and Coave’s process development teams are working jointly in ABL’s state-of-the-art GMP facility in Lyon (France).

[philh75] 20/4/2024 21:45

If we go back to this video with Sebastian he talks about what ABL is bringing over an above the two facilities we have been told, at about 9 mins in. Another potential world beating platform in MVA. 10 mins: “they are bringing, what I believe to be, a most compelling offering in the viral vector space.”



I think what they are doing for GeoVax is part of this

[harry s truman] 20/4/2024 21:17

But this is the CDMO thing surely? And Frank's point about leaving drug development for pure CDMO.

It doesn't really matter what the Geovax share price is or was (as long as they stay in business) because they are the ones taking the risk whilst OXB are simply being paid for a service.

I would be very surprised if OXB sign up for anything which is less than 7 figures, and so at the end of every work package we print an invoice which returns us to the old adage that a few million here, a few million there, and pretty soon you're talking a lot of money.

The fact that ABL has already brought us one of the more than 50 programmes that I'm expecting OXB to tell us they have by results day just shows what a great deal for OXB that was.