Oxford Biomedica Share Discussion Threads

[harry s truman] 16/4/2024 11:04

Following on from the PB link the other day:-



6 years after launch UK recommends routine roll out of CAR-T therapy Kyriah – but do you know its UK development heritage?
Last week NICE recommended Kymriah personalised immunotherapy to treat blood cancer be made routinely available on the NHS for children and young adults.

Children and young adults with a form of leukaemia that develops rapidly are set to benefit after NICE recommended an innovative, life-extending treatment where the person’s own immune cells are modified to fight the cancer. The treatment has been available through the NHS’s Cancer Drugs Fund since December 2018, with this new guidance now recommending its routine rollout – a full six years later.

This breakthrough product has important UK heritage, having emerged from research at the University of Pennsylvania. It was back in 2017 that the FDA granted its first approval for the CAR-T product, following crucial evidence to the regulator from UK biotech Oxford Biomedica, the sole manufacturer of the lentiviral vector that encodes the CD19-directed chimeric antigen receptor in Kymriah. Oxford Biomedica signed an agreement with Novartis in July 2017 for the commercial and clinical supply of lentiviral vectors used to generate Kymriah. As announced in October 2014, Oxford Biomedica also receives royalties on sales of Novartis CAR-T products. One of the key breakthrough products wouldn’t be the blockbuster it is today if it wasn’t for the manufacturing know-how of a key UK biotech player. It is a shame that heritage isn’t part of the NICE press release to link up the full story.

From

Note the last paragraph there - at least someone in the industry appreciates what OXB does ;)

[harry s truman] 16/4/2024 10:25

I think for people with family hypercholesterolemia and so looking at their first heart attack in their 40s then this must be of great interest. Thankfully that's quite rare. For the rest of us I think cholesterol is a necessary building block for a lot of important things (and if it wasn't then why would our livers make it?).

Having said that the world is mad - like the NN mega blockbuster drug (potentially the most lucrative prescription drug ever) as an alternative to eating less.

[harry s truman] 15/4/2024 19:32

Currently relieved that I wagered Dom's pound and not my own.

9 trading days left before the results.

[marcusl2] 15/4/2024 15:57

Yes H, I think In-vivo and gene editing are the next big advances.

Our findings demonstrate that the T-Charge™ manufacturing platform successfully maintains highly heterogeneous transduced Tscm clones with self-renewal potential in durcabtagene autoleucel products. Maintenance of Tscm in manufactured products contributes to robust CAR-T expansion and long-term persistence of CAR-T cells with a highly diverse TCR repertoire after infusion.



Traditional CAR T-cell manufacturing requires extended ex vivo cell culture, reducing naive and stem cell memory T-cell populations and diminishing antitumor activity. YTB323, which expresses the same validated CAR as tisagenlecleucel, can be manufactured in <2 days while retaining T-cell stemness and enhancing clinical activity at a 25-fold lower dose.


top 20 pharma companies by 2023 revenue

[harry s truman] 15/4/2024 11:39

Another strange day. 3,707 shares traded as I type, but I'd bet a pound of Dom's money that its somewhere near to 200k in total at the end of the day.

Hopefully a fortnight today will be a much more interesting day.

[harry s truman] 15/4/2024 00:06

I guess at some point (if CAR-T is to become mainstream and not the treatment of last resort - or next to last resort) then it either has to move to an outpatient setting or they need to build more facilities.

Maybe you remember this, but we are involved with T-Charge (Novartis) which is a CAR-T drug in current trials, which is grown on inside the patient (not a bioreactor).

My understanding / recollection from the time is that instead of the modified T-Cells being grown on in a warm bioreactor until there are a huge number to purify and infuse back into the patient as one massive assault, they infuse a much smaller number directly into the patient and do it sooner than would normally be possible.

The cells then multiply on inside the patient whilst looking for the target they have been programmed (with LentiVector) to kill.

If this works out in trials then not only is the patient less poorly at infusion time because of having to wait less time for the product, but the common "storm" reaction when the immune system is suddenly "switched on" (by T-Cells which can "see" the enemy) is much milder because the patient is given many less modified T-Cells.

Might not be 100% there, but that's the general gist of it and Novartis see T-Charge as replacing Kymriah with a simpler / quicker process which is easier on the patients - so I would assume that means outpatient. A while to wait yet for T-Charge though.

[fhasson] 14/4/2024 21:41

Interesting and comprehensive article regarding a shift in thinking regarding in- outpatient Car-T planned treatments versus inpatient treatments-should improve no. of future treatments offered significantly and the healthcare provider bottom line -which in turn will offer more treatments and so on

[fhasson] 14/4/2024 21:23

https://chi.scholasticahq.com/article/115793

[harry s truman] 13/4/2024 00:09

Another great find Phil.

Aside from the interesting content there, I'd suggest that video also tells us that we are still on excellent terms with both Miles and Peel Hunt (the previous house broker and analyst of course) which is good to see.

I wonder if this was instigated by a request from PH or if there has been some kind of charm offensive going on with all the covering brokers? I'm thinking the latter but I guess we will never know the answer to that one.

I think another very positive sign is the link with the US team visiting - everything everywhere as Frank (in his Cadbury's milk tray man outfit) might say.

[philh75] 12/4/2024 22:51

Inside Windrush court:



Other links of interest

[steeplejack] 12/4/2024 13:57

Make of it what you will but you can currently buy 25000 shares at 208.5 on quote and deal.That’s quite chunky for OXB.There’s stock about.

[harry s truman] 12/4/2024 10:10

It's far from clear Dom (imho) and if that regular seller is still with us, then did they really just have a day off yesterday?

Just to give the stuck record another airing, I think the 2023 results presentation (which, the way these things work, is really the first proper 2024 presentation) is the elephant in the room here.

We said that would be on us before we knew it and of course it's a fortnight on Monday now.

Put in other words, only 10 working days for OXB to announce something now if there is anything in my theory that they gave an unusually long notice of the results this year because they wanted to announce something before the presentation...

That aside, we have the obvious mismatch of what OXB have said they are going to present and what the covering analysts (and the market) think reality is.

Where does that leave us? Nobody knows yet.

6 weeks ago Stuart said that 2024 revenue will be £126m to £134m.

Perhaps more pertinent is that 2025 is indicated as better than £170m to £181m, which would be our record best ever year and unlike during covid we would not have 87% of our work in one customer contract.

What will happen? Who knows, but a fortnight will very quickly pass and then we have this quite odd situation where the company has stopped burning money on operations and is already looking at projections of next year's record earnings, whilst trading on a little more than a tenth of our 3 year high share price.

[dominiccummings] 12/4/2024 09:21

We still have a seller then!

[boadicea] 12/4/2024 09:09

Back down for now.
Any boost if we get one will probably be around mid-afternoon.

[gareth jones] 11/4/2024 18:55

Another building block from NICE. All helps and the more Kymriah is used the more acceptable it will become and the more revenue for OXB.

[harry s truman] 11/4/2024 18:52

As I recall (so there's your warning) it was approved back in 2018, but only in very specific circumstances. What PB has found there is that they now plan to treat with it routinely - as per this same story from a different site:-



As for was this the news that I thought OXB might be trying to time to get in before the results? No.

[takeiteasy] 11/4/2024 18:46

Harry, is that new news in terms of positive for the share price and not specifically expected right now i.e. might help the share price a little given how stuck we have been. Not seeing any numbers makes it hard to guage..

[harry s truman] 11/4/2024 18:42

Winner of today's observer badge award for spotting that one PB.

It all helps in this rolling snowball known as OXB's revenue.

Obviously more vector to be made, but as I'm sure you remember we have a royalty on sales for Kymriah, so every sale notches that up.

JD at the time said words to the effect that it's a very small percentage, but that a very small percentage of a very big number is still a lot of money.

[pharmaboy3] 11/4/2024 17:05

Good newsHTTps://www.precisionmedicineonline.com/regulatory-news-fda-approvals/nice-recommends-novartis-kymriah-pediatric-acute-lymphoblastic

[harry s truman] 11/4/2024 15:16

In fact I just read the comments and one says it's on a price to sales ratio of 153.

Remember my point that average CDMO is 5.5 and OXB is currently less than 2.

(Just for comparison).

[harry s truman] 11/4/2024 15:13

Funnily enough I was corresponding with my spirit guide about exactly this story yesterday.

If that company has been listed for 17 years and their latest figures are sales of £200,000 in the six months to the end of July and a £5.6m loss, then their main or underlying problem isn't the stock market is it?

Unfortunately all the media outlets do this to try to support any current running story, which is why you'll note the BBC "occasionally" linking some really unrelated things to climate change (to give one popular example).

[takeiteasy] 11/4/2024 14:54

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/04/10/london-markets-broken-closed-pharma-boss/not directly aimed at us - but many here can only have empathy I suspecthoping this time is 3rd time lucky to push above 120p barrier :)lot of patience needed here especially when you hold a fair few

[harry s truman] 11/4/2024 13:29

Today's volume was extremely unusual though PB, with only 4,000 shares traded by early afternoon (it has picked up now to 30k or something), but of late a normal day for OXB is something around 100k in the morning and the same again by close. That suggests to me that our forced seller is finished (for now) and that everybody else is sat on their hands waiting for the results.

Should be an interesting end to the month. Not the loss for 2023 and such (which we all of course know about already) but the forecast for 2024 and 2025.

By the nature of our work (how long it takes and end invoiced) even though the order book value increases all of the time, OXB will have a very good idea by the end of month 4 of the amount of work they will be able to complete and invoice for this year.

Yes exceptional things could happen both ways, but I'm guessing that Stuart will give a spread of figures for 2024 with something like 85% confidence and that those figures will be nothing like the broker consensus. What will happen then?

[pharmaboy3] 11/4/2024 13:04

Some traders / market makers leave silly buy/ sell prices on the books overnight. In the hope that some clown takes the bait.As day trading begins, then sensible folk ask/ put sensible prices.The gap narrows.