Oriel Resources Share Discussion Threads

[supersturrock] 12/3/2008 16:57

Hopefully at this rate they can string things out to when Vosh starts producing !!

[sg31] 11/3/2008 10:13

So it doesn't appear that we are in for a down day.The volatility of the share price on no news releases is disturbing.As ever the poor PIs are left wondering what others know that we do not.

[supersturrock] 11/3/2008 09:06

Cezary - hopefully not !!

[cezary] 11/3/2008 08:19

is this going to be a typical 'head and shoulders' situation?

[sg31] 10/3/2008 20:23

Tsx,showing equivalent of 89p at present so a down day tomorrow

[jswift] 10/3/2008 17:20

see what happens in the morning

[sg31] 10/3/2008 15:47

Seems we all agree that we would rather stay independant if the alternative is to sell on the cheap.I hope the company are of a similar mind.

[cezary] 10/3/2008 10:20

My sentiments exactly

[supersturrock] 10/3/2008 10:08

Yes, but do the Russkies sell on the cheap as well ??? Frankly, I would rather Oriel stayed independant so we can still multibag.

[cezary] 10/3/2008 09:58

as\i said before the russkies want it on the cheap. thats how they work

[sg31] 10/3/2008 09:39

Suspect it is a measly price on the table.If it is we just keep on doing what we are doing and bring the mines on stream.Maybe a short term dip.I do not want to see this sold on the cheap.

[supersturrock] 10/3/2008 09:36

Talks stalling or measly price on table ?

[cezary] 07/3/2008 15:53

usual friday Blues!!

[eastwind] 07/3/2008 10:36

06.03.08 Oriel Resources Takes a Short Timeout

MOSCOW, March 6. /FIS/ Directors Board of Oriel Resources Plc. recommended the shareholders 'not to take any decision regarding Mechel's offer'. The offer price and shareholding size have not been disclosed. Investors believe the recommendation is just the mark that Oriel Resources is ready to start active negotiations: the shares quotations grew by 12.85% yesterday and capitalization increased to USD1.26 billion. A source with Oriel confirmed that the Directors Board's refusal to support Mechel's offer at once is but a bargaining move. The source said the bargaining is likely not to last long and the deal may be announced by the end of the week. The delay could be also due to the need to agree everything with Kazakhstan's authorities. The British geology prospecting and production company owns Tikhvin Ferroalloy Plant near St.-Petersburg and two deposits in Kazakhstan.
Source: Kommersant.--

[bo doodak] 05/3/2008 19:10

Thanks for that Kenmitch, much appreciated.
Lots to consider, as found out through experience not much good at trading myself. I'd hoped to maximse gains by simply holding to 2010 but that looks unlikely now.
Hope you managed to get a few earlier

[kenmitch] 05/3/2008 17:43

Bo Doodak.

They could offer less than the full market value, but I've never known this happen. There's always a first time for everything.

But it's unlikely they would offer far less than the market value since all holders would need to do in that situation, assuming they have the funds, is to exercise the warrants and then sell the shares to realise the profits that way.

ORIW - unlike some warrants - can be exercised at any time.

It is more usual in a bid situation for warrant holders to be offered a bit extra on top of the market value for time value. BUT there is no time value protection clause for ORIW and as the warrants are trading at a discount a bidder is imo unlikely to offer above the "right" price for the warrants. e.g if they offer £1.25p for the shares then they will probably offer 50p for the warrants.

If the market thinks there is a chance of a higher bid from another bidder or bidders then both shares and warrants would rise higher than £1.25 and 50p (or whatever price the Mechel bid is at).

otoh if that is the only bid then often the share price sticks a bit below that price and the warrant selling price could be significantly below 50p or whatever. Again if this happens a way round it is either to wait for the bid to complete and then take the full price for the shares or warrants. Or if wanting to get the warrant money sooner, then again exercise the warrants and then sell the shares.

Sometimes in a bid situation I sell ahead of the bid being completed even if it means missing out on the last bit of the profit if I have any fears that something could go wrong and the bid not go through.

Hope that helps.

[bo doodak] 05/3/2008 16:22

kenmitch,
I've noted your knowledgable postings on other boards re characteristics of warrants, and was hoping you could might be good enough to give an opinion on one aspect re this possible bid.

How would Mechel have to treat long term warrant holders like myself should they bid and be successful. Is there any way they can avoid paying the full market value, such as perhaps using an average price over a set period of time.

Cheers

[supersturrock] 05/3/2008 16:15

Hate to say this but it all points towards about 125p per share - a gross undervaluation IMO.. Hope I am proved wrong.

[eastwind] 05/3/2008 16:03

The trasnsaction price is 95p.

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Baran records huge profit on Oriel sale
Baran sold its 5.6% stake in the Canadian mining firm.
Irit Avissar 5 Mar 08 11:16
Baran Group (TASE: BRAN; Pink Sheets:BRANF) will record a net capital gain of NIS 72-77 million on the sale its stake in Canadian mining firm Oriel Resources plc (TSX; ORL; AIM: ORI) to a foreign investor. Baran sold 47.3 million shares at ₤0.95 per share for a total of ₤44.94 million (about $78 million). Baran's net capital gain will depend in part on the shekel-pound exchange rate.
Beit Dagan-based Baran owns a 5.6% stake in Oriel. Baran paid $2.5 million for 12.5% of IPH Polychrom Holdings BV, which in 2006 was merged with Oriel, in a reverse takeover, for Oriel shares. Baran received an Oriel stake through the transaction worth $30 million.


The sale was made at a 4% discount on Oriel's share price on London's Alternative Investment Market (AIM) of ₤0.99. The share closed at C$2.10 on the Toronto Stock Exchange and closed at ₤1.10 on the AIM yesterday.

Since 70% of the stake is held through a trustee, Baran will receive only 75% of the payment when the contract is signed, and the balance when the trustee releases the shares.

Oriel owns metal and coal mines around the world. It has a market cap of $1.4 billion.

Two days ago, Oriel said that Russian mining and steel company Mechel OAO (NYSE:MTL; RTS: MTLR) was "contemplating an offer for the entire issued capital of Oriel" and that the company was considering the offer.

[sg31] 05/3/2008 10:00

George,ORL

[ukgeorge] 05/3/2008 09:57

does anyone have the ticker that oriel uses in canada

[kenmitch] 05/3/2008 09:51

Oriel Resources warrants now trading at a discount - 34-36p. Shares now 115p so the warrant would be 40p with a zero premium.

Target 150p for the shares and the warrants should double to 75p.

Best tactic could be to buy some warrants now and top up at a lower price if bid talks come to nothing.

The main risk with buying now is if the bid is successful at a lower price than 112p - but surely Oriel won't be sold that cheap?

[ukgeorge] 05/3/2008 09:49

what difference a month makes Feb 4th 60p March 4th 116p. more of the same please. hope it carrys on like umn did last year.

[abcd1234] 04/3/2008 18:02

yes indeed :O)
Lets see how it goes, although as others have stated before, the company's share price should have exceeded current level in due course