Orcadian Energy Share Discussion Threads

[explorer88] 01/3/2008 10:28

ericthecat

it's been an interesting week, including:






by co-incidence, had an e mail from RG this morning in response to a question about the US office that ORCA were planning to open in the fall of 2007


eric - who do you think the preferred bidder is? Comverse?

(I note that Tim Phillips and RG were on the same panel this week)

[explorer88] 01/3/2008 10:00

jt - i don't know.

imo, the forest stake (built up in two tranches - Oct 19 2007 and last week) is linked to GS who are/were advising one of the parties not selected in October as preferred bidder.

there are at least two scenarios behind Forest stake - one which which would lead me to believe that there may be a counter offer, the other which would lead me to conclude that there would *not* be a counter offer (at least from the party who were/are advised by GS). Up until now i've been inclined to the second scenario.

Whichever scenario transpires, i think we will get positive news very soon.

[jammytass] 29/2/2008 18:22

many thanks >explorer will there be counter bids?

[explorer88] 29/2/2008 17:47

jammytass - 25p minimum. imo. i think we'll see nearer 30p (about £10m) which would cost the preferred bidder about £4m (as there is approx. £6m cash)

there were several suitors. preferred bidder was chosen in mid October 2007

[jammytass] 29/2/2008 17:12

so 25p max then?

[crashbang] 29/2/2008 17:08

Blz are the largest holder, 60%.

[deep powder] 29/2/2008 16:56

probably US bidder, 25p is circa cash + 1x sales.

[jammytass] 29/2/2008 16:51

is it just emblaze? bid war?

[crashbang] 29/2/2008 16:45

This is worth what Emblaze is willing to except.

[jammytass] 29/2/2008 16:37

what price is this worth? what price have directors bought shares at? are there more than 1 cmpy going to bid?

[crashbang] 29/2/2008 16:13

Why would BLZ sell at this price?

[ericthecat] 29/2/2008 10:27

the biggest give away that a deal has been done in my book, is the lack of news and the web-site not being updated and no events planned for ORCA.

this together with Forest buying all the over hang does point to ORCA has been sold. Why would a small US fund manager buy such a large stake in a small israeli company?

[explorer88] 29/2/2008 09:56

eric - thanks

fwiw, i do not know who the preferred bidder is.

[ericthecat] 29/2/2008 09:52

can you e-mail me who and why you think its with?

[explorer88] 29/2/2008 09:45

no, about as far away from the mark as you could get.

check out UBQ and SRF threads regarding identifying (through thorough research) potential bid targets prior to acquisition news.

[ericthecat] 29/2/2008 09:31

to me you have seen the overhang cleared, and thought we can pump and dump this stock with a nice 30% gain, is that close to the mark?

FWIW I believe a deal has been done

[explorer88] 29/2/2008 09:31

good morning eric - you are very knowledgeable about ORCA and i have followed your insightful posts with interest.

i have no direct information from either ORCA or the preferred bidder that the bid has been agreed. i do not know that the bid has been agreed, or at what level. i'd be happy to communicate further with you privately.

[ericthecat] 29/2/2008 09:24

explorer, why do you think the bid has been agreed? I am not being arrogrant but there will be nothing you can tell me about ORCA (my guess) please prove me wrong, but all this looks like a ramp to me?

[explorer88] 29/2/2008 09:07

thanks pre - it's amazing what you can learn from the actions of spurned bidders/their advisers/related parties ;-)

p.s. you may care to research the link between GS and Forest.

[janatha] 29/2/2008 09:07

Dear All

Sp affected positively by - Ant's good news(maybe large buyers trying to get in on back of); previous large purchase clearing overhang and buzz on this bulletin board.

Also I wonder if small company/tech funds are tentatively putting some money back to work or, as I know in one instance, if the selling of illiquid stocks owing to redemptions is starting to fizzle out. There has definitely been a bear market in non-profit making/tech/small cap stocks in the last year and I have noticed an increase in volume in several of mine in the last couple of weeks. share price is now puffing up on tiny volume. A perfect stock to ramp? Hopefully there is more to it than that. I am a long suffering shareholder and would welcome a genuine increase in value. Fingers crossed.

Looking for unloved stocks which have recently had great news ? - check out DDD . High risk but Imo very undervalued. DYOR.

regards Janatha

[pre] 29/2/2008 09:06

Thanks explorer88...you've done your homework on this by the looks of things...well done:-)

[explorer88] 29/2/2008 09:05

i expect bid to be at least 60% above current share price (i.e. not too late to buy or top up)

good luck!

[pre] 29/2/2008 09:01

amazing....just under 3yrs ago this was trading at around £1.50 per share.....top of the leaders board now....

[pre] 29/2/2008 08:42

think i agree with that explorer88.....looks like +25P takeover price for a bidder imo:-)