Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Optibiotix H. LSE:OPTI London Ordinary Share GB00BP0RTP38 ORD 2P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -2.00p -2.78% 70.00p 69.00p 71.00p 72.00p 69.50p 72.00p 248,006 12:28:29
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Health Care Equipment & Services 0.3 -1.5 1.7 41.9 54.98

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Date Time Title Posts
19/11/201723:15OptiBiotix - Better Science, Better Health. Better buy some!29,299
11/11/201715:26OptiBiotix - The uncensored thread 1,967
08/11/201712:39OptiBiotix - Special report70
07/10/201713:56Michaelmouse school of investing and fraud 48
28/4/201715:37Free Shares-

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Optibiotix H. Daily Update: Optibiotix H. is listed in the Health Care Equipment & Services sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker OPTI. The last closing price for Optibiotix H. was 72p.
Optibiotix H. has a 4 week average price of 68.50p and a 12 week average price of 64p.
The 1 year high share price is 89.50p while the 1 year low share price is currently 54p.
There are currently 78,543,318 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 237,973 shares. The market capitalisation of Optibiotix H. is £54,980,322.60.
parob: Had to copy and paste this well thought out post from Novy kluk on the iii bb. I've actually met this chap at 2 investor presentations: Subject: Crude attempt at a Target Price During 2016 when OPTI was developing its science, it had no real revenues. Its share price "soared" however based on the anticipation of its tremendous potential. In those early days it was no doubt over valued in economic terms. During 2017 with the"risk off" attitude of most investors, its share price has been range bound, despite the growing number of significant deals struck with large "players". One might now consider the company is undervalued against its revenue potential from those deals currently in the public domain. Its with that background I've attempted to make a crude target price calculation as a sort of "reality check" and to validate my own LTH in the company. I use the term "crude" calculations as a number of inputs are down to my own assumptions, and not all of those will be correct! However the following information is in the public domain (not my assumptions) and understood to be from reputable third parties and authoritative; * Each of the major contracts currently being announced will net OPTI between £250k and £500k per year. * OPTI's operating costs are virtually fixed and change little with the number of deals struck. They currently stand at £1m per year. * There are six LPLDL deals of substance already agreed, including the Galenicum LPLDL on 27th October. Apparently SOH had said publicly he expects another four to be agreed in the near future. This week's Supply and profit sharing agreement with Knighton Foods is for Slim Biome. So there are still a further 4 LPLDL deals expected to be announced in the short term. That will make ten LPLDL deals in place. * OPTI are paid their royalty revenues either 3 months or 6 months in arrears. * Some clients like Galenicum are fast off the mark and launch immediately a deal is struck. Other partners are slower. So it's possible that a deal signed today with a partner who has a "slow launch", will not generate any revenues for a year. But equally a deal could see revenues generated within three months. It seems almost certain there will be more than the ten deals mentioned above and each worth between £250k and £500k to OPTI. And that's only from the LPLDL Stream. SlimBiome is gaining traction now and a further large deal with Tata is expected to be announced "soon". Given the size and scope of the Indian market, revenue of £1.0 million is suggested from that particular deal (if and when it happens). Then there is the Sugars Stream which SOH has in the past suggested will have the greatest potential! Those are the inputs I've gathered in the public domain. The following inputs are my own assumptions; * Due to the "slow start" effect and quarterly or half yearly royalty payments, I've assumed no revenue is generated in the current year. i.e. The initial year a deal is struck. This is clearly incorrect. But I don't want to over state revenues and/or guess at partner start-up timings. * The average net revenue from each deal will be £375k in year one of revenue, increasing 10% compound for subsequent years. * The number of deals and revenues; LPLDL Stream: 10 deals by end 2017. Due to "slow start" and royalty payments, assume no revenue in current year i.e. the year the deal is struck. So revenue in 2018 is £3.75 million. 7 additional deals during 2018. So revenue in 2019 is £6.750 million. 5 additional deals during 2019. So revenue in 2020 is £9.300 million. SlimBiome Stream: Whilst there are a couple of Slimbiome deals in 2017, assume effectively they are in 2018. So Assume 10 deals during 2018. But one is expected to be with Tata where the revenue is thought more likely to be £1.0 million. So due to "slow start" etc no revenues are assumed in 2018. But revenue in 2019 is £4.375 million 5 additional deals during 2019. But I assume one deal is in the USA where I assume revenue is likely to be £1.0 million. So revenue in 2020 is £7.312 million. Sugars Stream: Assume 10 deals during 2018. Revenues only start in 2019. So revenue in 2019 is £3.75 million Assume a further 10 deals in 2019. So revenue in 2020 is £7.875 million. * No revenues are assumed from OPTI's 42% stake in SkinBiotheraputics. At UK Investor (April 2017) I was told that first product(s) would launch in 18 months time. So first product(s) possibly in October 2018. Revenues only likely from H2 2019. But are likely to be significant, particularly in 2020! * No revenues are assumed from OPTI's planned Internet on-line direct sales. Though that will generate revenues when it's eventually launched. * No revenues assumed from the cross selling opportunity from the JV with Bened. Though again there will be revenue from that source at some stage. * OPTI's cash currently stands at £1.6 million. So with costs of £1.0 million/year and cash starting to flow in, cash should not be an issue unless a further acquisition is considered. But if there were a cash call for such an acquisition, logically it would be earnings accretive. * It seems very logical that once OPTI's income streams become established, the P/E multiple for a such a growth company with such predictable earnings, will be quite substantial. Possibly 25 or 30? For my calculations I have assumed a constant P/E of 20 for all years. Though I think that will prove very conservative with a 2019 P/E of say 23 and for 2020 a P/E of 26 being more likely. Do the numbers - it makes a very big impact!! So from the above (Using a £1.0 million/year cost figure) the net earnings numbers become: 2018 - £3.75m - £1.0m = £2.75m. OPTI has 78.793 million shares in issue. So with a P/E of 20, the target price is 70p. (Market Cap of £55m) So the current market price is at last justified with economics (next year), rather than the anticipation on which it was driven during 2016. 2019 - £13.875m total net earnings. Price becomes 350p. (Market cap of £276m) 2020 - £23.487m total net earnings. Price target becomes 596p. (Market cap of £470m) Comments and intelligent critique welcomed! GLTA NK
someuwin: HSR "Optibiotix - another major deal, this time for Slimbiome: BUY, BUY , BUY A big deal with a real name and a serious player which will lead to material profits for Optibiotix (LSE:OPTI). What more could we lucky shareholders want? These deals are racking up and will clearly leave the company reporting profits in 2019 and very big profits the year after. That is not discounted in the share price, currently 74p to buy. The deal is with one one of the UK’s leading specialist ingredients suppliers, Knighton Foods which is a subsidiary of £326 million capitalised Premier Foods – a company that last year genewrated sales of £790 million so it is a very real company indeed. The agreement gives Knighton an exclusive licence to manufacture and supply OptiBiotix’s SlimBiome weight management technology in the United Kingdom, in return for 50% of the profit, with an agreed cost of manufacture and minimum sales price per kilogramme. Knighton supplies a range of high quality, value adding, functional powdered foods, specialist ingredients and finished products, to some of the countries major supermarkets, high street coffee houses, and best-known household brands. Knighton’s advanced powder technology was key to developing an improved version of SlimBiome, providing enhanced solubility and better product presentation, greatly improving flavour and mouthfeel. We are told that SlimBiome “will be supplied by Knighton as a specialised functional ingredient, into a wide range of finished products for use in the retail, vending, and ingredients sectors. Knighton will use their best endeavours to promote and expand the supply of SlimBiome®, bringing it to the attention of product innovation teams across their wide range of customers.” We noted the other day that Optibiotix had in recent months signed 6 deals on LPLDL and that each could be worth £250,000-£500,000 in year one and rising thereafter. We speculated that another 4 LPLDL deals were likely in the next few months but that following that there would be similar numbers of deals for Slimbiome and then sugars. Well now you are seeing Optibiotix start to deliver on Slimbiome. This is just one territory albeit a big one and with a big partner. We stated in our big report the other day that as these deals rack up there is no reason why profits by the 2019 calendar year could not be £4 or £5 million with the potential to double that the year after. Such growth would easily merit a PE of 20-25 and as folks wake up to all that implies the shares will re-rate big time. At 71p-74p the market cap is still just £57 million. Do the maths! Note the Steve O Hara quote today: “We believe working with Knighton, and similar partners around the world, provides the best opportunity of meeting the requirements of major retailers and the growing interest we are seeing in SlimBiome® from partners worldwide” Ends. In other words there are a stack more deals to be announced soon. The shares are a buy at up to 80p with a target of 100p+ to sell by Christmas."
owenmo: Here's hoping Vanduke you have Skinbio in your sights too. Good to see someone talk up Opti share price even if it means paying higher price for planned purchases; integrity Vanduke; a rare enough commodity.
fathenry: REF ABOVE, FWIW , HERE IS HIS VIEW ON OPTI ALONG WITH OTHERS. HE WANTS TO SEE SOME DEALS BEFORE HE BUYS, HOPEFULLY HW WILL HAVE TO PAY A LOT MORE WHEN THEY OUT. SOME OTHER COMMENTS ON SHARES , ALSO GYM (LON:GYM) Share price: 212p (up 3.4% today) No. shares: 128.2m Market cap: £271.8m Interim results - this company operates 97 low cost gyms in the UK. It reports today on the 6 month period to 30 Jun 2017. The shares listed in Nov 2015, at 195p each. So overall, little share price progress has been made since then, once the initial flurry of excitement wore off, as you can see from the 2-year chart below; 59a67f037c45aGYM_chart.PNG I like the chart - a long period of bottoming out, and now what looks like the start of an up-trend. Could this be a buying opportunity? Let's have a look. The financial highlights cover the main points, with my highlighting the most important bits; 59a6816e0f9fcGYM_highlights.PNG As you can see, there's good growth. This company is basically a self-funding roll-out - i.e. the cashflows from existing sites are being used to finance the opening of new sites. I really like self-funded roll-outs as investments. The beauty is that investors can just sit back for a few years, and watch the company expand & grow more profitable. That usually leads to considerable share price appreciation. The main risk to roll outs is that operational problems are considerable. Management has to not only manage the growth, but also keep control of a rapidly growing business, which is far from easy, and requires strong management. The other risk is that competitors spot what you're doing, and copy or improve on the format, thus reducing returns. Other key risks include poor site selection (especially signing up over-rented sites, which become loss-making). Multi-site businesses are also feeling the strain right now from business rates increases, and staff costs (Living Wage, pensions, apprenticeship levy, etc). This is quite a rapid roll-out; Expect to achieve the top end of the guidance range of 15 to 20 sites openings for 2017 That's a fairly rapid pace of expansion, given that the company currently has 97 sites. Mind you, having visited a site myself, they're not particularly complex fit-outs. It's just a big space with lots of exercise machines & other equipment in it. This company says that it is the market leader, in a sector (low cost gyms) with 515 sites (up from 450 in 2016, so competitors are expanding too). I really like the customer proposition with this company. It's a no-frills gym offering, so particularly no swimming pools. However, they are big, and well-equipped gyms, at an affordable price - average revenue per member is £14.28 per month (down slightly against 2016). The beauty with gyms is that lots of people sign up, but rarely actually use the facilities. Looking at the figures, the first point which jumps out at me, is the big difference between adjusted EBITDA (up 19.1%), and adjusted earnings is up a much higher amount at +40.3%. The main reconciling item is probably the depreciation charge, so I'll see if I can work that out. Ah, the company has given a reconciliation, and this confirms that the depreciation charge has only risen a modest amount, year-on-year. Therefore that helps boost the percentage increase in adjusted profits. 59a686630a4f0GYM_reconciliation.PNG I'm not explaining this point very well! What I'm trying to say is that the EBITDA figure has risen by £2.2m, but the depreciation charge has only risen by £0.4m, so that gives a leveraged increased in % adjusted profits. Note also that the site EBITDA margin is good, at 41.5% of revenues. I've just found an explanation for why the depreciation charge has increased so little; As a result of the annual assessment of the useful economic lives of property, plant and equipment, the useful economic lives of certain items of leasehold improvements and gym equipment have been increased. This has decreased the depreciation charge for the period by £0.8 million, compared to the depreciation charge under the previous useful economic lives. Depreciation as a percentage of revenue decreased from 16.8% in the six months ended 30 June 2016 to 15.0% in the six months ended 30 June 2017. That's a one-off benefit this year, in terms of the increased profit %. Therefore, I would treat the 41.7% increase in adjusted profit with caution. The underlying figure is actually lower than that, since the change in depreciation policy really should be adjusted out, in my view. EDIT: A broker has estimated that profit would have been up 24%, if the depreciation change is disregarded. So this is quite a significant point to note. Outlook comments are as expected; During the second half of 2017 we will continue to implement our plan, opening new sites and bringing to maturity the gyms that have been opened during the last two years. I am confident that the business is in as strong a position as ever to execute its strategy and deliver further profitable growth. After a good first half we are on track to meet market expectations for profit for the full year and I am encouraged by the progress we are making. Balance sheet - this is dominated by fixed assets (note that all property is leasehold), as you would expect. These have a net book value of £104.3m. There are also £48.8m in intangible assets (which I usually write off to nil). The working capital position looks very weak, with a current ratio of only 0.35. However, in this particular case that doesn't concern me, because the business is so cash generative, and has plenty of headroom on its bank facilities. I think this is just the nature of the business. The trade creditors figure of £36.7m is the stand-out number, in that it looks unusually large. No additional detail is given in today's interims. So I've checked the last Annual Report, to see what it contains, as follows; 59a695c70230dGYM_note_17.PNG (NB. figures as at 31 Dec 2016) I've highlighted the largest number within trade payables, which is £16.8m lease incentives & rental increases. Lease incentives are either cash receipts (reverse premiums) or rent-free periods, which a landlord offers to a new tenant, as an inducement for them to sign the lease. The tenant would end up paying a higher rent, if this type of deal is done, so that's how the landlord recoups the cost in the long run. In the case of a reverse premium, the way it is accounted for, is like this; DR Cash £x CR Trade payables £x Over a period of time, usually 5 years, the creditor is then gradually fed into the P&L as a negative cost - usually offset against rent payments. What this does is to spread the benefit of the landlord incentive over the number of years that it relates to, as opposed to it being booked as a one-off benefit in year 1. Anyway, for our purposes, the key point is that whilst this is classified as a creditor on the balance sheet, it's not actually a creditor! i.e. the £16.8m highlighted above does not, under any circumstances, have to actually be paid to anyone. What this means, is that we can safely ignore it, in terms of assessing the company's financial strength. Overall, NAV is £118.2m. Removing intangibles brings this down to £69.3m. That looks a perfectly adequate capital base, so I'm happy with the balance sheet. Bank facilities - these look well-structured, and note that the company has only drawn down £10m of a total £40m bank facilities. So it is well-financed, and can comfortably afford to continue its rapid expansion using cashflows, and maybe a bit more bank funding if required. There are no issues here anyway, it all looks fine to me. Cashflow - this is terrific. The business model generates loads of cash, which is then mostly used for capex - mainly new site openings. In H1 net operating cashflow was £14.5m (up from £13.9m in H1 last year) - remember these are just half year figures. The full year net cashflow in 2016 was £27.0m (before £0.9m exceptional costs). This is a fabulously cash generative business. I'm not sure how much of the capex is for new sites, and how much is maintenance capex on existing sites. It would be good to find out the split. The narrative does mention a 5-year refit cycle. Dividends - are negligible at the moment, but when the business matures, it will have the capacity to pay generous divis. So something to bear in mind for the future. Valuation - I think we've established that this is an attractive business, which is trading well. As a self-funding roll-out, it's not going to be cheap. Here are the Stockopedia stats; 59a69a993a1b9GYM_valuation.PNG I think that valuation, a forward PER of 23.9, looks about right. It's justified by the strong earnings growth, and the roll-out working well, in my opinion. My opinion - I like it. This seems a high quality company, which is performing well. It has a sound balance sheet, and is self-funding its own roll-out. Customers obviously like the format, and I've tried it out myself, and can confirm that the facilities are good, and excellent value for money. I reckon that the revenues might be a lot more sticky than some people think. The worry is that, in times of recession, gym memberships are often cancelled, as one of the few discretionary items of spending that we can cut when times are hard. However, at just £14 a month, it wouldn't surprise me if GYM customers keep their membership going, even when they're feeling the pinch. It's such a small monthly outgoing, for considerable health benefits. I must admit to being tempted to buy some shares in this company. I'm pretty certain that, on a buy and forget basis, this would probably be a good investment over say a 5-year period. My main reservation is that it's difficult to see much short-term upside on a valuation which is already quite high. So on balance, I think it might be best to go on my watchlist, as the type of share I would buy at a lower price, if markets generally have a wobble. EDIT: Many thanks to reader "bestace" who has kindly flagged up the investor presentation on GYM (LON:GYM) website. HSS Hire (LON:HSS) Share price: 47.35p (down 14.7% today) No. shares: 170.2m Market cap: £80.6m Interim results - covering the 26 weeks ended 1 Jul 2017. HSS is a tool & equipment hire business, in the UK & Ireland. Graham reported on a poor Q1 update in his report here on 24 May 2017, so I've just read that to refresh my memory. The company seems to be undergoing a restructuring, which the company describes as "substantial operating model changes". The highlights section looks awful to me - an adjusted loss before tax of -£14.2m in H1. This compares with a £2.2m equivalent profit in H1 last year. That's really bad, especially as the company has a very strained balance sheet, with tons of debt. 59a6a91ba3a7bHSS_highlights.PNG Debt interest is a highly material cost, therefore I would ignore the 3 items above my highlighting, as they're meaningless (due to them ignoring interest costs). Note that the divi has been passed. The company says that the trends improved in Q2 compared with Q1. So this share is really a punt on the company being able to turn itself around before it goes bust. Looking back to Q1, the adjusted EBITA loss was -£4.5m. In the table above, H1 on the same basis is -£7.3m. Therefore, by deduction this means Q2 was -£2.8m. That's still bad, although it is at least a smaller loss than in Q1. Cost savings - of £13m have been targeted, compared to the Q1 run rate. Outlook comments; 59a6ab0ccb6c6HSS_outlook.PNG So it's a profit warning for Q3. With a -£7.3m EBITA loss for H1, the £8-11m profit range for H2 means that the company seems likely to report a small adjusted EBITA profit for the whole year, of c. £1-4m. That's all very well, but bear in mind that the interest cost last year was £14.7m. So assuming something similar this year, a small EBITA profit would turn into a hefty loss before tax for the full year of £10-13m. Net debt - this is the elephant in the room, at a gigantic £230.6m. I would be worried about possible covenant breaches, given the very poor performance year to date. Nothing is said about this in today's announcement. Unless performance drastically improves, I cannot see how the company would be able to renew its debt facilities. Its revolving credit facility expires in Feb 2019, and the Senior Secured Notes expire in 1 Aug 2019. This looks a very similar situation to Johnston Press (LON:JPR) - where the company looks unlikely to be able to refinance its loan notes when they fall due. In the worst case scenario, that means the equity could end up being worth nothing. The hire fleet has a book value of £125.6m (see note 9 in today's announcement). So to have net debt which is £105m greater than the book value of the hire fleet, looks an extremely imprudent state of affairs. The bank and the loan note holders must be praying that the company's performance improves in time for them to get their money back in 2019. If not, then a hefty, dilutive equity fundraising could be the only option to refinance the company next year, in advance of debt facilities expiring. My opinion - I've repeatedly warned about this company's awful balance sheet, right from the moment it floated in Feb 2015. Net tangible assets were negative, at -£54.1m at 1 Jul 2017. The balance sheet would need to be strengthened by at least £100m in fresh equity before I would consider this share investable. Tool hire businesses can be good investments when the cycle is turning up. They then see leveraged increases in profits. However, in the good times, capacity tends to increase until there is a glut. Then weaker players end up going bust in recessions, when over-supply meets sharply reduced demand. So a classic cyclical business model. The UK economy is showing some worrying signs of a slowdown possibly on the horizon, so I'm not currently amenable to the idea of buying into very cyclical shares like this. Given poor trading, and a train wreck balance sheet, I have no idea why anyone would want to hold this share. Risk:reward looks pretty bad. I suppose an OptiBiotix Health (LON:OPTI) Share price: 68.5p (down 2.8% today) No. shares: 78.5m Market cap: £53.8m Half yearly report - for the 6 months ended 31 May 2017. This company describes itself as; OptiBiotix Health plc (AIM: OPTI), a life sciences business developing compounds to tackle obesity, high cholesterol and diabetes I note that it has produced negligible turnover to date, and is loss-making. So that's normally the type of thing that I would ignore - as they nearly always go wrong as investments/punts, in the long run. There can be huge speculative moves up during bull markets though, for this type of story stock. Anyway, I just thought it might be useful to do a quick review of today's numbers, so that we have something in the archive to refer back to in future. Reading through the results statement, there's not really any point in me analysing the numbers, because again revenues were negligible at £75k. The company's valuation clearly hinges entirely on future expectations of revenues & profit from new products that are in the pipeline. There was an operating loss of £981k in H1. An exceptional profit of £4.1m was booked from OPTI spinning off one of its subsidiaries, with a separate AIM listing, SkinBioTherapeutics (LON:SBTX) . That is shown as an investment on OPTI's balance sheet. Cash - cash is king at jam tomorrow stocks. In this case, it reports £1.9m in cash, and there are negligible creditors. That looks enough to last about a year, assuming no meaningful revenues appear. So possibly looking a little tight? The company reckons it has enough cash though, but blue sky companies always say that, then do more Placings! Contracts/agreements - the company has an impressive-sounding list of deals underway, with named partners. So this gives some confidence that it's not just all hot air. 59a6c1929f37aOPTI_contracts.PNG Although personally I'd want to see some of these agreements actually generating some real cash inflows before considering investing here. My opinion - I don't touch companies like this, as practically all of them go wrong, after all the hype dies down. Maybe there's something good here, it's impossible for me to tell at this stage. Although I do like the newsflow, which sounds credible. Also management seemed credible in a video I watched online. Overall, it's too speculative for me at this stage, but I'll monitor future results to see if there's any commercial substance to the company. The danger is that people chase up the share price on promising-sounding newsflow, but then hard cashflows fail to materialise. That's the outcome with most jam tomorrow companies on AIM - things tend to take far longer, and cost far more, than originally anticipated. I've got an open mind though, so will keep an eye on this company for signs of genuine commercial progress.
michaelmouse: You're getting over confident Sienna. We'll see. Don't let recent rises in the Opti share price fool you. It's simply bounced off a 24 month low. The down trend is still very much in tact. Come the interims who knows what might happen? ;)
joyjoy13: OptiBiotix Health PLC Q&A with CEO Stephen O’Hara (LON:OPTI) Posted by: Amilia Stone 17th August 2017 OptiBiotix Health PLC (LON:OPTI) Chief Executive Officer Stephen O’Hara caught up with DirectorsTalk for an exclusive interview to discuss the recent share price movement, their deal pipeline, the 39 potential RNS’s that could be announced in the following months & what this all means for investors Q1: Just recently, there’s been a fall in OptiBiotix Health’s share price, how would you explain the share price performance? A1: There has been some volatility in the share price, the first thing I wanted to do was to reassure investors that there’s nothing wrong. If you look back at where we are now to where we were say 12 months or so ago, the share price was higher 12 months or so ago but undoubtedly, we’re in a stronger position today than we were when the share price was trading at 80p. Even more importantly, if we look towards the future, there are a lot more opportunities we are progressing which are at a later stage, we touched on in previous RNS’s, and are entering the commercialisation phase. We do recognise there is uncertainty in small caps in general, and that’s across the board, and we do have a large retail investor base so we will get peaks and troughs, some shareholders just take profit and there’s also some uncertainty in the external environment which means that some retail investors start to take a shorter view. I would say that if you look at where we are with the company, we’ve just entered a commercialisation and I believe this next stage of growth, there’s a potential for share growth which will come when we gain commercial traction with our products. Based on the high level of interest and lots of ongoing discussions, this look extremely promising and investors who attended my investor share results presentation earlier on in the year will recognise we have a structured plan and that’s the reason we appointed a new Commercial Director, Per Rehné and a new Sales Director in January 2017. They joined us at the end of March and as planned, we launched products in May and as I reported in previous RNS’s, there’s been a lot of interest, extensive interest, from our launch of Vitafoods in the middle of May, we’ve been working hard to close out deals from those discussions. We have closed out 2 deals, one with HLH and one with Pharmabiota, both these are privately-owned pharmaceutical companies so they are far quicker in decision making. As people are also aware, HLH they had an initial order of 100,000 and last week they ordered another 200,000 units so you can see that it’s not just signing deals, HLH for example signed a deal, put the products on the market and now re-ordered twice the number of units they ordered initially. We have a number of agreements in our pipeline, 4 private companies like HLH and Pharmabiota but also some larger corporates, we hope to see these agreements start to close out after the summer break. Q2: You mentioned the deal pipeline, when can investors expect to see these cross the line? A2: OptiBiotix Health do have a strong deal pipeline, it’s very difficult to give accurate timelines for deals because, as I’m sure investors can appreciate, it’s a two-way negotiation and once any partners suspect you’re working to a time limit, this can give them leverage in any negotiation. You’ve just got to think of situation where you’re trying to buy and sell a car, if you’re trying to sell your car very quickly, the price changes. However, to give our investors flavour of the amount of interest in OptiBiotix Health, we’ve had large interest since Vitafoods but a number of discussions prior to Vitafoods. As a team, we review the potential news flow going forward and we estimate that there are 39 opportunities for RNS’s between August of this year and the end of year so that’s an awful lot of opportunities. Now, not all of these will turn into RNS’s, as often there are 2–3 companies looking for deals in the same territory, investors will note that our deals with Pharmabiota and HLH are non-exclusive deals so that creates opportunities for maybe 2 or 3 companies in the same territory. Generally speaking, particularly with larger corporates, they want a single territory or a single continent so it would exclude others but hopefully those sort of numbers, we’re sitting on opportunities that we’re looking at, maybe not all of them will develop but it gives investors flavour about the amount of activity taking place and the scale of the opportunity. So, there’s an awful lot going on, that in itself creates a challenge of the breadth of capability within the team, particularly over these summer months when people are on holidays but we hope to be closing out a number of deals as we exit the summer holidays. Q3: Can you tell me what all this means for OptiBiotix Health investors? A3: I think it looks very promising for investors and of course, I am probably the largest single private investor and my family have a large stake holding in the company, many of those bought at 75p and we’re below that now. So, as I said at the start of this interview, I want to reassure investors that the fluctuation in share price don’t worry me but in terms of what it means for investors, you need to look at this across the board. We’re in a really exciting space, the microbiome, we’re building not just a single product technology platform but we’re developing a number of product platforms and these are at different stages of development and I created this purposely as it spreads investor risk across a number of opportunities. Of course, those earlier platforms, the SlimBiome and the OptiScreen platform that creates the cholesterol product LPLDL, they’re now entering the commercial phase of development with the launch of Vitafoods in mid-May of this year so early stage of commercialisation. As mentioned earlier, these products have stirred up a lot of commercial interest and I think there’s a number of times now, that this is probably the greatest interest I’ve had in any product and we hope that these will come to fruition in the next few months. Investors should also note, if they look up Biopharma or Pharmabiota, these companies have a very good reputation for investing in scientifically validated products which they sell into the high-value pharmaceutical market. It’s the growing trend in both small and large companies in Pharmabiota products of this type so these are products that are natural products, that have a strong clinical evidence base and a lot of science behind them. From OptiBiotix Health’s point of view, we are establishing early sales in these pharmacies and this helps build credibility in the science and consumer acceptance as pharmaceutical products. This opens up opportunities then to larger retailers to maybe recognise the opportunity there in terms of the science behind these products and the traction in the pharmacies will then build into their sales pipelines going forward. I just hope investors can start to see the momentum building up as we create multiple partnerships across multiple territories with each partner starting to contribute small amounts but incrementally increasing to grow revenue. We see this as a very low risk, low cost approach to accessing multiple healthcare markets and pharmaceuticals markets across the world which, if we’re successful in this, we can generate 7-figure revenues in the forthcoming years. So, we can see a lot of opportunities with the early stage and that early stage development, as I touched on earlier, creates the opportunity for substantive share growth. So, initially, we we’re in early stage of scientific development and now we’re in the early stages of commercial development and there’s a lot of activity taking place which have the potential to create substantial value. Now, we hope that investors will see that and stick with us as we go forward.
f3rdinand: Monkey, you keep stating that OPTI is a 'jam tomorrow' sort of share with no profits, so just wondered what companies you invest in? Genuinely interested!You see if OPTI was already turning a profit of circa 5-10 million per annum then we'd be looking at a share price in excess of £2 and not 60p! If you invest in companies already turning a profit; you're probably involved in FTSE companies where share price growth will be very slow! We are invested here for the future and believe we've found a share which WILL turn over considerable profits in the next year or so and when the ball is rolling- due to the business model- it will snowball very quickly: as will the share price!Comments suggesting OPTI have nothing special in the market are also laughable! What other company offers:1) Hunger free dieting.2) Cholesterol reducing products (with efficacy potentially as good as statins) that can also decrease blood pressure.3) Healthy sweet fibres (at a time where sugar intake is such a major political issue)Given all the above I'm very confident I've backed the right horse here and yes it's taking longer than I hoped/ initially expected, but OPTI has IP that any fool can see is going to be in extremely high demand!
parob: Great post Elrico. I guess investors will try and work out the value of each deal as they come through. If you believe in SOH, the science, the strategy - the key is to get in there before official revenue guidance is offered. Hope you don't mind me posting Speccy - your mum will be pleased if you get a few more hits on the blog! hTTps:// Thursday, 22 June 2017 One last Optibiotix push Something is severely wrong with the market. I expressed disbelief that following the signing of a 3-year supply contract for LPLDL® with HLH Biopharma, the share price of OPTI:Optibiotix had dropped back below 70p. Yesterday it dropped further. It's crazy!! OPTI:Optibiotix are in contract negotiations with other potential LPLDL® suppliers after interest from 30 companies at the recent Vitafoods event. Each contract signed will be the equivalent of free money - the expenditure has been completed on the R&D and a manufacturer has been appointed - who will also be paying 50% of their proceeds to OPTI:Optibiotix. All this is just for LPLDL®, and given the news time granted to a potential cholesterol-reducing injection yesterday (not available for 5 years), the fact OPTI:Optibiotixhave something ready to market now that does exactly that, should be another signal of the potential revenues. Add to that Slimbiome sales just kicking off, promised free shares in SBTX:SkinBiotherapeutics and the launch of Sweetbiotix in late 2017 to early 2018, as well as a platform designed to discover further applications for the microbiome, and the short, medium and long term potential is just staggering. I've got a standing order for £200 a month going into a savings account. It's meant to be for emergencies or paying for holidays. I decided last night to divert it for 12 months in order to take advantage of the market insanity around OPTI:Opibiotix. I took out a 12 month loan for £2,250 paying off at just under £200 a month and cancelled my savings standing order. This will cost me £167 interest over the year. I expect to make that back within a week when the market corrects.
bdog51: Whilst it's somewhat disappointing to see the OPTI share price stagnate yet again, take a look at 4D Pharma.. down from 800p to 250p in the last 8 months. I always thought 4D was overvalued, yet it didn't stop Woodford piling in big time.Meanwhile with OPT in the 60s I'm a buyer as I believe we're going to hit the big time in due course, many hot irons in the fire here. Revenue forecasts will drive the re-rate.
parob: riskybusiness1 - 06 Jun 2017 - 09:09 - 24143 of 24143 - 0I wrote to walbrook over the weekend asking about ysf and how some believe they are at fault for suppressing the share price through dropping on market. Also asked for any future revenue indications. Some of it didn't actually relate to what I asked but interesting nevertheless I assume from soh:'This is an incorrect assumption as the YSF is not selling down shares in drip sales. As a regional investment fund its reason d'aitre is to support new investments and occasionally it has to sell shares to allow it to reinvest or to bid for external funds. We are fortunate that our institutional investors are very supportive of OptiBiotix and when there is a need to sell shares rather than put them on the market they will often approach us first. This allows OptiBiotix to place shares with interested institutional investors who are looking for large amounts of shares but are unlikely to buy small amounts in the market. With a large volume this is often at a market discount which temporarily affects the share price. Please note that all market sensitive information is shared with all investors and 'institutional investors' do not have access to any information which is not available in the market. I am particularly keen on this and hence I gave exactly the same presentation to retail investors at the recent evening presentation that was used for institutional investors during the day. The company does not release news to buoy the share price and doesn't get too disconcerted by the day to day volatility in share price which is largely driven by market sentiment often influenced by bloggers. We are building a £200m+ company and are progressing through the phases of creating the science, building the IP, proving the science in laboratory and clinical studies and then commercialising innovative products. If we build the company on a solid base the share price will follow and be sustained.We are at the early stage of commercialisation of two products (SlimBiome and LP-LDL) with a third product (SweetBiotix) following later this year or the start of next. I have been pleasantly surprised at the high level of interest from companies in these products and we anticipate a range of agreements following on from our launch in Vitafoods. These should start to feed through in the following weeks and months whereupon we will announce to the market. As some of these deals can be worth in the regions of £5m per annum I am sure you can see that given the multiples in this industry (10-20) even if you use the lower multiple a £200m+ valuation is within reach. Share growth and company valuation has to be based on a solid foundation and I believe the next phase of share growth will come as we gain commercial traction with our products, which based on the high level of interest and 30+ ongoing discussions, look extremely promising. Investors who attend my presentation will be aware that this is all part of a structured plan and the reason we appointed a new Commercial (Per Rehne) and Sales Director (Christina Wood) in Jan 2017. They joined us at the end of March and as planned we launched products in May. As previously announced we have extensive global interest and the next few weeks and months should see these deals closing out whereupon we will announce to the market This next 18 moths should be exciting for OptiBiotix and its shareholders and hopefully, like with the Tata deal, we can announce a few surprise deals to help build the company to the next level.I am happy for this to be circulated widely as it does not contain new market sensitive information.'elrico - 06 Jun 2017 - 18:29 - 24165 of 24167 - 6Hi Stephen,I had an exchange with HLH recently (see attached) and Bathe confirmed OPTI LP-LDL will be on the shelves mid July, costs 30 capsules -18,90 € & 90 capsules-39,90 €. They ship to UK. I had a number of people asking about these, which prompted me to enquire. Google translate was helpful 😊Would it be appropriate to OPTI to disclose margin, costs for deals like this, or would this give away too much to competitors. I suspect when revenues are acknowledge and the cost base remains flat at c£1m pa, this would be clear enough.I cannot help notice your usual conservative tone has changed to one of a more upbeat, even excited and now I learn you have ventured to use projections for some of the deals being negotiated. It was also very pleasing to learn YSF are not the sole reason for holding us in the current trading range. I have long since argued YSF have a stated exit strategy of 3-6 years and aim to do so in an orderly manner. I have also argued this will be better facilitated once OPTI are able to provide number for brokers, which will enable an even more orderly exit. As one of my friends like to say, "I am sanguine."Hi,I have worked with distributors for years and they can be very difficult/disheartening so was pleasantly surprised at Vitafoods at the high level of interest in both LP-LDL and SlimBiome and can start to see a clear path to revenues of £3-6m+ per year for each of these in the not too distant future. As many people will tell you from my presentations I explain I don’t reveal margin and costs as from experience this then sets a starting point for other deals, which then become lower. This creates a risk that each deal is less profitable than the previous.Everything is building nicely and whilst there are no guarantees this is looking very promising and I would like to be announcing a number of deals in the forthcoming weeks and months. I would also like to be able to announce our plans to return value in SBTX which is a complicated process but I believe achievable.Feel free to share as this contains no market sensitive informationBest Wishes,Stephen OHara
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