Optibiotix Health Share Discussion Threads

[rafboy] 22/3/2017 13:37

Assuming you are correct, how much of a discount is usual when deciding what price existing shareholders can purchase shares at the IPO?

P.S. I know the answer is how long is a piece of string but would welcome any views on this.

[someuwin] 22/3/2017 13:36

2,000,000 shares at 10p a share = £200,000.

[elrico] 22/3/2017 13:18

As far as I can calculate (I'm no expert), based on 30% of the issued share capital being used to raise funds for SKIN, I THINK this equates to 2,000,000 new shares. I expect SKIN will opt to raise somewhere between £2 - £3m, c£2.6m net expenses, which equates to 50-100 per share. I have suggested this price range to a number of people over the last few months. I know I am not the only one to come to the same calculations, so I know I am in good company. We could be wrong of course.

edit senior moment. The only equation I got right was the 30% and that is dependant of the loan conversion ;-)

Thank for pointing out my error someuwin.

[onedayrodders] 22/3/2017 12:48

someuwin .. and with the likelihood of OPTI's other mature business showing continuing commercial success, this is likely to impact very positively on Skinbiotix as investors confidence in Optibiotix, SOH and the science is underpinned.

Skinbiotix could replicate the share price returns of OPTI even quicker.

[michaelmouse] 22/3/2017 12:46

Is that the frosty chill of winter I can smell in the air?

Is the bull market fading and a bear market about to take its place?

I suspect a lot of the investors/traders in Opti are relatively new and naïve. They probably won't have experienced a bear market before.

Even revenue generating, profit making, cash generative companies share prices can take a "good kicking" in a bear market never mind companies like Opti that will be reliant on additional funding for the foreseeable future.

The new and naïve investors here have undoubtedly been drawn in by tipping sites and the share price performance since it listed unaware that the current market cap. of £60m is built on sand (imo).

If a bear market takes hold then watch as those naïve investors suddenly realise that their investment here is based on sentiment and not backed by any fundamentals. A mass sell-off is something to behold.

It might be a little early to herald the temporary end to the bull market, but when investors start selling into what was supposedly good news, it's often a sign.

Perhaps some have just wised up and realised that spinning of divisions is just an excuse to raise extra cash?

Perhaps it'll be a potent combination of both?

Let's see.

Gulp ;)

[someuwin] 22/3/2017 12:42

If SKIN does list with a mkt cap of just £5m or £6m then I think it will probably double in price on the first day of dealing!

[elrico] 22/3/2017 12:29

Mouse - I have had my calculation verified. Whatever SKIN raises via the IPO it will be via 30% of the issued share capital, be £2 or £3m. Either way, we won't know anymore until the listing, so will have to sweat it out ;-)

[someuwin] 22/3/2017 12:24

Looks like SKIN will float with a similar valuation to the initial OPTI IPO.

In August 2014 OPTI raised GBP3.3m with an initial placing at 8p per share.

The total share capital comprised of 71,754,534 shares giving a capitalisation of approximately GBP6m.


...Now 2 and a half years later:

OPTI's total share capital has only increased to 78,526,967. and the price has risen to 80p giving a capitalisation of £63m.

...That's the beauty of the OPTI / SKIN model - Ultra low cash burn and minimal dilution = spectacular share price rises.

[mouse20] 22/3/2017 12:21

So if Opti's holding drops from 72.5% to circa 40% (and assuming the other shareholders also have a prorata reduction) that means the £2m raised would be circa 45% of the share capital. So the overall value on this basis would be about £4.5m.

[ironman22] 22/3/2017 12:20

It always puzzles me when i hear people saying, 'how could anyone possibly be selling now' like how could anyone possibly have a different strategy than me? I feel it's a bit narrow minded. Maybe those selling are traders who don't really care what happens to OPTI next maybe they got in around the low 60's and have made a tidy profit now because traders don't fall in love with a share and there's always another trade just around the corner, or they could be selling for a whole host of other reasons. Just a thought.

[diamond fibre] 22/3/2017 12:14

I have freed up some cash, just in case we need to buy some skin shares.

[someuwin] 22/3/2017 12:06

Shareholder % Holding pre % Holding post
Admission Admission
------------------ -------------- ---------------
OptiBiotix Health 72.5% TBC
plc
------------------ -------------- ---------------
University of 12.4% TBC
Manchester
------------------ -------------- ---------------
Dr. Catherine 7.6% TBC
O'Neill
------------------ -------------- ---------------
Dr. Andrew McBain 7.6% TBC
------------------ -------------- ---------------

[panic investor] 22/3/2017 12:06

Deep - in that case join cloudtag lol!

[deeppockets] 22/3/2017 12:01

Surely if they own about 50% currently and will end up with 40% after the float they are looking to sell 10% of the business. so if £2m is 10% that makes the float valuation £20m? I'm not a Finance Director!

[elrico] 22/3/2017 11:49

Edit as my comments are not relevant to the above post because this is another company and has nothing to do with OPTI.

[loungeact] 22/3/2017 10:33

"Life sciences firm to raise £2m in AIM float for anti-infection and eczema battle." - I've not seen a figure mentioned before, or did I miss something?



hxxp://www.thebusinessdesk.com/northwest/news/2000403-life-sciences-firm-raise-2m-aim-float-anti-infection-eczema-battle

[riskybusiness1] 22/3/2017 09:50

The whole point of the demerger is to realise the value. Opti currently just own the ip %75 £650k which can not be much more today. Opti have put a team in place which will allow it to command a higher value on listingSimply speaking %40 of 10million is much more than 73% of anyone's guess what the market currently values skin at - can't be much more than the value of the ip bough last year. Providing the cash resources and a company will increase the value of both skin and opti. Even more value will be added whilst skin grows.

[spike_1] 22/3/2017 09:46

scotty - I'm with you on that!

[bobdown2] 22/3/2017 09:45

Do not ignore the short term news that can arrive. Something from Tata perhaps or a new partner etc. that is backed up by the news that is in early May. The news flow should be increasing and the predictable moves of the share might have disappeared.

[someuwin] 22/3/2017 09:44

We (OPTI) will still own 40% of a much larger (because of the new cash) SkinBio PLC.

[scotty1] 22/3/2017 09:40

My only concern for now and i still wouldn't risk selling as the share price could go either way very short term is how they are going to work the shares out in SKIN because in theory as i have said OPTI with SKIN in is at the moment 80p so when the demerger happens OPTI cannot be worth 80p so will OPTIs share price fall back and if so how much?that is why i believe exsisting share holders should get FREE shares in SKIN at a % of how many shares they own in OPTI.All good fun innit.

[panic investor] 22/3/2017 09:05

Added a few myself

[elrico] 22/3/2017 09:04

HSR has OPTI holding 52% OF skin, its 72.5% and 40% post demerger.

[marnewton] 22/3/2017 08:56

A back-test is healthy - and it's not just a back-test of the breakout but also the top of the November 2015 descending channel (log scale).

More importantly, another close above 82.00p confirms the change in trend.

M