Opsec Security Share Discussion Threads

[santangello] 27/2/2008 20:31

Nice late trades today....

Possible pre-trade update bargain hunting perhaps?

[santangello] 25/2/2008 13:54

All quiet here....are we all waiting for the trading update then ?

[santangello] 18/2/2008 16:10

I found that to be the case too...

Upward movement though, and the volumes are not anything major.....

I would assume the scenario looks positive.

[bearfoot] 18/2/2008 16:04

Me too....very difficult to buy any/many even at the full offer price....

[harrogate] 18/2/2008 15:51

Just had a little dabble to test the water - It is certainly a tighter market than it has been for a while - Not sure what that means but some good news will move it up quite fast I suspect.

[santangello] 18/2/2008 12:38

You beat me to it harrogate.......

[harrogate] 18/2/2008 08:29

Just had a look back and they updated on trading pre close last year on 23rd March so a bit to go probably.

[harrogate] 15/2/2008 19:27

Interesting stuff - I know that there is a lot of activity in this marketplace and that compared to valuations being achieved by non quoted companies they are seriously undervalued - If they have beaten estimates for 2008 then we could be in for a surge - I bought a few more a couple of weeks ago at 55p without any trouble

[bearfoot] 15/2/2008 17:48

Interesting movements here...something is afoot m'thinks. I was only partially successful in topping up via E-Trade in the last week sub-50p...and after a couple of failed attempts at additional purchases the dealer called me to check my requirements.....and....in casual discussion gave me the strong impression that there was a decent/sizable order sitting on the books which meant the market was rather tight. The fact that since then the price has lurched forward in thin trade and balanced trade in the last week suggests as yet 'hidden' interests in the shares. I can see no other explanation for the near 20% surge in OSG's price in the last few days.... around about this time last year they issued a (positive) trading statement....I wonder...(and hope!)....

[santangello] 14/2/2008 11:22

Nice momentum buying here.

Classic double bottom been reached and breached.

I have added twice, and happily paid over the offer on one occasion this morning.

Plenty of upside here me thinks.

DYOR though.....

[bruce the worry bear] 12/2/2008 18:04

Thanx H much useful stuff there I guess with DCF and often work backwards to see what expections of growth are built into the price. Bruce

[harrogate] 09/2/2008 09:34

It of course depends on the numbers to be crunched. In November they said trading was good and they expected to be in line in year to march 08 - I think in line means about 7p earnings so they are now on a PER of 7.- If we assume 8p for 2009 - Just a guess since I have no idea then they are on a forward PER of about 6.

I think this is much too low for a growing company in a growth market.
A couple of valuation pointers - ABNH was bought in Dec 07 in US for $138 million - They make less than half the profit of OSG and were sold for 2.5 times the value - do the math !!
There were a number of underbidders for ABNH from the private equity world who MUST now be talking to OSG about an MBO given its current market cap -It is a very valuable asset in this market

There is a company on the french market called Hologram Industries which is values at $70m and is less than the half the size - sales & profits of OSG

I think ( and I admit this could be just wishful thinking ) that the fact that the directors haven't been buying is significant since they have been big buyers a while back at not much lower than this - I believe it is because they are in discussions and can't buy.

I think it is worth twice the price that it currently sits at - I am buying more at this price

[bruce the worry bear] 08/2/2008 19:36

My conservative calculation of fair value for this share is between 62p and 84p. Has anyone else crunched the numbers?

[bibs] 08/2/2008 15:54

See Telegraph Shares & Funds - Don't know how reliable they are?

[harrogate] 08/2/2008 12:32

I am not aware that they are -do you have details?

[bibs] 07/2/2008 20:57

Why are brokers rating OSG as a 'SELL'?

[shuisky] 28/1/2008 00:24

harrogate et al- Who are the peers of Opsec? And who are their main competitors?

[harrogate] 25/1/2008 13:07

Just bought some more - Here's hoping !!!

[bruce the worry bear] 25/1/2008 09:06

Value is only half the story, sentiment is the other half and Ithink is is worth an educated guess (the best that it can be) about where sentiment lies. I rarely get the bottom right but I always look for it!

[harrogate] 24/1/2008 10:14

I never know about things like that - what i do know is that the company is significantly undervalued now compared to its peer group and this will not last long so it is not worth looking for the absolute bottom since there is at least 50% upside from here short term - 3 - 6 months

[bruce the worry bear] 23/1/2008 23:22

H - I think the last dip was the bottom I cant see them going sub 50p again. As Rothschild said "when there is blood on the streets its time to buy"

[harrogate] 22/1/2008 08:03

I didn't say I was buying today !! I don't think there is too long to wait here - but I agree they could get cheaper

[masurenguy] 22/1/2008 07:59

I agree with you in principle but it is a brave man who buys today after yesterdays 5.5% market fall and current cash futures down a further 3% pre-market !