Opg Power Ventures Share Discussion Threads

[jozo] 06/12/2016 13:22

I bought back in over last month @64 and @68 - in hope that his company will finally come good now that the 'jam tomorrow has arrived'

Am afraid I also sold out this morning - The visibility going forward is very muddy IMO and couldn't see much prospect of significant future growth.

Extremely disappointed with significant margin reduction as well as 3.88 price per unit for Gujarat.

Think things could have been a lot worse if it wasn't for currency moves.

Also I'm not as convinced anymore that India is suffering the same chronic shortages in electric capacity that it had a few years ago. This will long term inevitably impact on revenues and bottom line.

I have also been uncomfortable with the tangendo payment situation for some time - nothing in these results make me feel any better about the situation.

Good luck to any long suffering holders - I hope things aren't as bad as I fear.

On to pastures new for me!

jozo

[eddie1980] 06/12/2016 12:00

I was surprised to read that the output is basically capped by the success of variable (clean) energy source - the more wind output there is, the less OPG can produce (or at least will be paid for). I know they estimate output should remain at about 80%, but long term, will this reduce as more wind/solar power is produced?

Coal price hit - full year profit impact of £7m - is this spread over H1 and H2 (i.e. half in there already) or just to be within H2 numbers. I think just within H2 as they say H1 was basically fully hedged. So profit will be approx. H1 x 2 less £7m.

Already mentioned, but plants in H1 seem to be operating at expected long term averages (Chennai high 70's, Gujarat 70) so not much upside from additional load factor utlisation to come.

Solar - wow, slow progress. so they only have 'in principle' finance for first 62MW - so basically still not confirmed. They should look at Mytrah for ability to raise asset finance and get projects underway and completed. They are going to dwarf OPG within 12-24 months in terms of completed solar projects. (they already have 1000MW, and stated to be aiming to complete over 300MW a year short term.)

I have also sold out most of shares today (only reason not all is can't log in to iii to access ones held in that account!!)

[andycapp1] 06/12/2016 11:45

For possibly peripheral interest I have sold most of my shares today between 70 and 68. Overall these results are disappointing and I don't think the equity will re-rate given that most of the earnings power now is visible. 7-8x EPS for this seems about right.

[source] 06/12/2016 08:26

Thanks Jozo. Yes I was looking at GBR debt levels (which seems the most relevant given other reporting). This is higher, & hence why I made the point about gearing apparently stated as being lower, but real debt situation is actually worse in practical operating performance terms. Regards,Source.

[this_is_me] 06/12/2016 08:03

All going according to forecasts.
Cash flow still being mainly used for investments.
Still looks undervalued compared to prospects.
Forecast numbers being achieved reduces the investment risk.

[owenga] 06/12/2016 08:03

What's all the issue with cash collection at Tangdeco. Only 60% of March 2016 balance collected. So 10m outstanding, and how much more has it racked up since then. Balance is probably larger now than at March 2916. Is there concerns over bad debts here?

[andycapp1] 06/12/2016 08:00

Flowerhead again you spout tosh. The net impact of these results is that net debt in sterling is up, that earnings for the year might be 9p if we are lucky and the dividend is a paltry 0.8p, scant reward for the long suffering equity holders. When you say 9p of earnings, that puts OPG on around 7x PER which is probably just about okay for a polluting coal generator with now limited EPS growth. SSE, a better run and more diverse company yields 5%. Why would I chose to hold OPG!! All in all dull!!

[jozo] 06/12/2016 07:52

No expert on these matters but think debt down in INR terms but affected by translation to GB£

Net Debt (Millions) 30 Sep 30 Sep 31 Mar 16
16 15
--------------------- ------- ------- ----------
INR 23,234 24,340 24,159
--------------------- ------- ------- ----------
GBP:INR ex-rate 86.4 100.3 95.1
--------------------- ------- ------- ----------
GBP (GBP) 269 243 254
--------------------- ------- ------- ----------

jozo

[azalea] 06/12/2016 07:49

Cracking Interim results pointing to a doubling in revenues and in excess of Eps of 9p FY2017,which should make the market analysts sit up this morning. The results should also silence the long standing critics on this thread especially those who do not hold shares in OPG. Onwards and upwards.

[source] 06/12/2016 07:45

Yes noticed that too. Very poor translation of strong revenue growth down to actual profit before tax. Also debt is up yet they are claiming gearing has dropped?Glad they have started to improve PLF's this period a bit thankfully. Will look at the cashflows now , and the higher finance costs you mentioned (thought these were meant to be coming down?)Regards,Source.

[rivaldo] 06/12/2016 07:44

The H1 PBT is up 20% from last year, at £17.9m from £15m - "not up much" is not strictly accurate....

The headline numbers look excellent:

"Financial Highlights

· Revenue up 108% to £117.7 million
· EBITDA up 81% to £42.1 million
· EPS up 41% at 4.80 pence
· Free cash flow generated of £20.6 million
· Gearing of 55% down from 58% at 31 March 2016"

The coal price spike is a downer, but OPG have negotiated this well in H1 through hedging, have mitigated much of it for H2 as well and express some confidence about the price spike being reversed.

Prospects overall look good. It'll be interesting to see today's reaction.

[owenga] 06/12/2016 07:37

Pbt not up much on same period last year. Huge additional financing costs. Divi peanuts. Looking at about 0.8p for full year, so just over 1%. All a bit disappointing really. Let's hope the market likes it.

[azalea] 05/12/2016 08:23

Jeffian

larva -I have filtered him.

Buyers in at the off this morning, last day to catch the shares before the results tomorrow, which will announce revenues continuing to increase,plus how much the maiden div will be and date of payment this month.

[jeffian] 04/12/2016 14:24

OPG are a power generator. They sell on term contracts to industrial captive consumers, power trading companies and state utilities. So far as I know, they don't supply individual consumers, let alone "collect money from door to door"!

[larva] 03/12/2016 16:52

will withdrawal of big bank notes create problems if they collect money from door to door

[source] 01/12/2016 21:34

Wow can't even break 70p ahead of news...disappointing. Guess we'll have to await the actual announcement and hope it is not yet another let down performance. Regards,Source.

[andycapp1] 01/12/2016 11:28

Solar auction news from India impacting, once again, a fragile share price. That or Flowerhead's inanities have upset the market equilibrium!! Annoying and another reason in truth I just want my chance to exit.

[igoe104] 30/11/2016 16:59

OPG Power Ventures plc
("OPG" or the "Company")
 
Notice of Half Year Results
 
OPG (AIM: OPG), the developer and operator of power generation plants in India,  announces that its results for the half year ended 30 September 2016 will be released at 0700h GMT on Tuesday, 6 December 2016.  Management will host a meeting and conference call for analysts and investors at 1400h GMT on the day of announcement.  Please contact Tavistock on [e-mail] for details if you would like to attend or dial in

[chalky] 30/11/2016 16:30

At last some info next week,well will it be good enough for a breakout?

[andycapp1] 30/11/2016 08:30

Christ, he's a pet pumper! There are laws against that.

[source] 30/11/2016 08:25

Yet another example proving whenever the resident amateur (azalea) spouts some sunshine pumping about OPG's rising shareprice, stating it ready to takeoff or something, you can all but guarantee it will fall back on a large re-trace. Smh. (Eg yesterday's 1.5p drop. Conveniently and Completely ignored by our pet pumper! :)Regards,Source.

[andycapp1] 30/11/2016 08:01

Flowerhead, more inanity. So what, re revenues. What on earth has that to do with the equity NPV for Christmas's sake?

[azalea] 29/11/2016 12:47

Even if the revenues for each of the remaining three quarters, do not exceed Q1(£57M), FY 2017 revenues will exceed 2016 by 78%.

[igoe104] 29/11/2016 10:55

Nice write up here.




Analyst Adam Forsyth had highlighted that the underlying business was progressing well and that first quarter revenues were "encouraging".  He repeated a 'buy' stance and target price of 130p - almost double the current price of around 68p

[andycapp1] 27/11/2016 18:56

Flowerhead, you do spout utter tosh. Why don't you please write something profound or interesting. Something that makes us think about the valuation, about why the equity NPV might represent value instead of utter inanity mainly focussed on the interims being "baked in" so the shares are going to go up. Pleeease try!!