Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Oilexco LSE:OIL London Ordinary Share CA6779091033 COM SHS NPV (CDI)
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 6.90p 0.00p 0.00p - - - 0 06:31:37
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers 174.0 59.2 -18.1 - 15.44

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grupo: The 4 Best Oil Stocks of 2017 When oil and gas finally started to outperform, these stocks from across the industry were the big winners. John Bromels (TMFTruth2Power) Jan 3, 2018 at 4:33PM Oil stocks are flops. That may have been true in 2014, 2015, and even 2016, but in 2017, oil prices finally began to rise significantly above the critical $50-per-barrel mark. And oil and gas industry companies were poised to benefit. However, some benefited a bit more than others -- particularly Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE:RDS-A) (NYSE:RDS-B), Statoil (NYSE:STO), HollyFrontier (NYSE:HFC), and ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP). Here's why they did so well, and what to expect from them in 2018. A smiling man raises his arms next to an oil barrel above which is a cloud of paper money. If you were lucky enough to buy one of these four oil industry stocks at the beginning of 2017, you should be happy with their outperformance. But will they do it again in 2018? Image source: Getty Images. Royal Dutch Shell: Best of the biggest The best oil stock of 2017 -- by just about any measure -- was Royal Dutch Shell. The oil major not only had an impressive stock rally, up 22.7% for the year, but also has one of the best dividend yields in the entire oil industry, at more than 5.6% (only BP's is higher, at about 5.7%). The company's outperformance was far from a sure thing, though. In 2016, Shell took on about $50 billion in debt to acquire BG Group. While the acquisition increased Shell's exposure to the up-and-coming liquefied natural gas market, management announced it would sell $30 billion in non-core assets to try to get a handle on the company's debt. Shell's return metrics -- a measure of how well management is deploying the company's capital -- have also improved, as has the company's cash flow, thanks to some smart cost-cutting measures. Ultimately, Shell seems to simply be running more efficiently, and the market has taken notice. With oil prices on the rise, expect Shell to continue to outperform. Statoil: Back in the game Statoil had a surprisingly strong 2017. I say "surprisingly" because the company posted some big losses in 2015 and seemed headed for middling production growth. Fast-forward to last year, and the company was able -- like many of its peers -- to successfully cut costs and generate a decent amount of cash flow at $50-per-barrel oil. In addition, Statoil has some ambitious projects in its pipeline, including a pair of offshore blocks in Suriname, right next door to ExxonMobil's promising Liza discovery in Guyana. All that was enough to boost the company's stock by 17.4% in 2017. Couple that with a 4.1% dividend yield, and Statoil looks like a compelling prospect for 2018. ConocoPhillips: Winning the losers' game The largest independent U.S. oil and gas exploration and production company (E&P) was also 2017's biggest winner among its peers, with a stock price that rose 9.5% during the year. That isn't nearly as much as Statoil or Shell, of course, but considering that many E&Ps finished the year down 20% -- or more -- Conoco represents a rare bright spot in this corner of the industry. Unsurprisingly, the company outperformed for many of the same reasons that Statoil and Shell did. It got rid of underperforming assets and used the cash to pay down debt, like Shell. It cut costs like Statoil. It also unveiled a clear shareholder-friendly plan and began executing it, to the delight of its investors. Conoco will continue to reward shareholders into 2018, but there's a very strong case to be made that there are probably better values among the E&Ps whose shares were hammered in 2017 but that have made similar moves and will benefit from the same industry trends that boosted Conoco this year. HollyFrontier: Top of the heap The most impressive performances in the industry came from some of the midstream (transportation and storage) and downstream (refining and marketing) companies. While several midstream-only companies -- particularly pipeline operators -- were down by more than 20% for the year, many downstream companies like Valero Energy, Phillips 66, and Marathon Petroleum were up by double digits. The biggest win among the large- and mid-cap refiners, though, was HollyFrontier, which saw its stock rise a jaw-dropping 56.4% in 2017, outpacing every other large- or mid-cap company in the industry. Even more impressive, that's not just a one-year fluke. Over the last three years, HollyFrontier's share price has risen 36.7%, while many upstream or integrated companies' stocks -- including those of Conoco and Shell -- are down over the same period. HollyFrontier rode the same trends as its peers: An improving refining market and a busy summer driving season led to increased demand for refined petroleum products. HollyFrontier was ahead of the pack thanks to some savvy moves to take advantage of the price discounts from harder-to-process crudes from Canada and elsewhere. While we can't be sure whether the refining trend will continue, Holly's 2.6% dividend yield and past success should bode well for its continued performance versus its peers.
waldron: What Will Drive The Next Oil Price Crash? Tyler Durden's picture by Tyler Durden Dec 22, 2017 2:10 PM Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via, As we roll into 2018, analysts and investors are more optimistic that the oil market will further tighten next year and support higher oil prices, but rising U.S. shale production will likely cap any significant price gains. On the demand side, expectations are that global economic growth will support solid oil demand growth. On the supply side, Venezuela’s dire situation, possible new sanctions on Iran, and increased tension in the Middle East mostly with the Saudi-Iran issues and the Iraq-Kurdistan standoff may take more barrels off the market than OPEC and friends plan, and send geopolitical jitters through the oil market. However, according to energy policy expert Michael Lynch, there remain three potential events in the markets that could send oil prices tumbling. These include a large correction in the U.S. stock market that could spread to a sell-off in commodities; one of the OPEC members or Russia breaking away from the unusually strong compliance to the cuts we have seen so far; and U.S. oil production rising so much as to make OPEC see it as a threat to its long-term oil market share. In markets, there are already some signs that we may be seeing some bubbles, Bitcoin being the most likely candidate, according to Lynch. In addition, the price to earnings ratio of the S&P 500 index is now over 25, well above the mean historical average of just over 15. Last week, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said, referring to the high valuation in some asset classes, “the fact that those valuations are high doesn’t mean that they are necessarily overvalued.” According to VTB Capital’s Global Macro Strategist Neil MacKinnon, the ultra-low volatility in U.S. equities this year is “very vulnerable” to shocks, and current stability could actually bring future instability. According to Lynch, if the U.S. market moves into bear territory next year with a big correction, it could spread the financial contagion to commodities such as oil. Another potential threat to oil prices is that of an OPEC/non-OPEC pact participant beginning cheating outright—Iraq and Russia, for example—which could lead to the Saudis deciding to let the price of oil drop, Lynch argues. Yet the Saudis have little choice but to support oil prices because of their heavily oil-reliant economy and the planned IPO of Saudi Aramco, Amy Myers Jaffe at the Council on Foreign Relations wrote in the Houston Chronicle last week. According to Myers Jaffe, if Russia makes a U-turn and boosts its oil production, the ultimate battle for market share will be between the U.S. and Russia, despite the fact that Saudi Arabia continues to hold influence in the oil policy of OPEC and its partners. “For now, Russia seems content to collaborate with Saudi Arabia on oil market stability, which ironically also suits the current U.S. administration, whose America-first jobs message is tied heavily to the economic engine of the shale revolution,” Myers Jaffe said. The shale revolution and the rise of U.S. oil production is the third possible factor that could lead to an oil price collapse, Lynch argues. If OPEC sees that it needs to defend market share in the long run, chances grow that the cartel may decide to let oil prices drop, Lynch says. OPEC is now outright acknowledging that U.S. shale outperformed initial expectations, and last week the cartel revised up its projections for non-OPEC supply growth for this year and next. The International Energy Agency (IEA), for its part, said that while OPEC producers had decided to roll over the production cuts to the end of 2018, non-OPEC supply would increase more than previously expected, and total supply growth could exceed demand growth next year. The EIA forecasts in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) that total U.S. crude oil production will average 9.2 million bpd this year and 10.0 million bpd in 2018, which would mark the highest annual average production, surpassing the previous record of 9.6 million bpd from 1970. OPEC is well aware of the second U.S. shale resurgence, and it looks like it’s currently sacrificing short-term market share in the name of higher oil prices—or “oil price stability”, as it loves to call it. As for letting the price of oil slide, OPEC members’ budgets may currently need higher oil prices even more than some U.S. shale drillers do. While many analysts and OPEC expect the oil market to finally rebalance at some point in late 2018, a sharp correction in the financial markets, a dip in OPEC/non-OPEC compliance, and the market share wars could result in lower oil prices, or in the extreme case—in an oil price crash.
ariane: IEA's Shocking Revelation About U.S. Shale November 15, 2017, 08:38:39 AM EDT By Shutterstock photo The oil market is exhibiting signs of having reached a “new normal,” according to the IEA, with the floor for oil prices jumping from $50 to $60 per barrel. But a few factors could poke holes in that price floor, and market watchers should be careful not to become overly optimistic about the trajectory for oil prices, the agency says. In its latest Oil Market Report, the Paris-based energy agency says that a confluence of events have pushed up Brent prices. Lower-than-expected oil production figures coming out of Mexico, the U.S. and the North Sea have combined with unexpected outages in Iraq (-170,000 bpd in October), Algeria, Nigeria and Venezuela. Those outages, plus the geopolitical turmoil in Iraq, and especially Saudi Arabia, have heightened tension in the oil market. Inventories also continue to decline. OECD commercial stocks fell below the symbolic 3-billion-barrel mark in September for the first time in two years. That seems to have put a floor beneath Brent crude prices at $60 per barrel, creating a “new normal” after prices had bounced around in the $50s for months. But the IEA cautions that the floor is not a solid one, and that a “fresh look at the fundamentals confirms…that the market balance in 2018 does not look as tight as some would like.” For one, some of those outages are temporary. North Sea and Mexican production recovered from maintenance, Iraq is scrambling to restore output (and raised exports from its southern fields to compensate for outages in the north), and shut-ins related to Hurricane Harvey in the U.S. have largely been restored. Libya and Nigeria saw their output inch up in October. But the real news is that the IEA downgraded its demand forecast for both this year and next. The agency lowered its 2017 forecast by 50,000 bpd, which may not seem like much, but is the result of a more recent slowdown – the agency says that demand in the fourth quarter will likely end up being 311,000 bpd lower than it previously thought. There are a variety of reasons for this, including fewer heating degree day numbers for the winter, lower demand in the Middle East (Iraq and Egypt), and some “modest changes elsewhere.” On top of that, oil prices have jumped 20 percent over the past two months, putting a dent in demand. The IEA assumes a price elasticity of oil demand at -0.04, which means that every 10 percent increase in prices implies a 400,000-bpd decline in oil demand (given that total demand is at nearly 100 mb/d). Overall, the IEA revised down its 2018 oil demand forecast by 190,000 bpd. The deceleration in demand will leave the market with a surplus in the fourth quarter, and that slowdown will continue into 2018. Global supply will exceed demand by a rather substantial 0.6 mb/d in the first quarter of next year, and the surplus will linger in the second quarter, narrowing to 0.2 mb/d. That comes after a lot of progress was made this year in lowering inventories. The supply surplus suggests that inventories will resume their climb for the next few months, perhaps through mid-2018. The sudden pessimistic outlook for the oil market is a symptom of explosive growth from U.S. shale, which, combined with other non-OPEC producers, will result in an additional 1.4 mb/d in fresh supply in 2018. That is a staggering number, and so large that “next year’s demand growth will struggle to match this,” the IEA said. The agency warned that “absent any geopolitical premium, we may not have seen a ‘new normal’ for oil prices.” In a separate report – the IEA’s annual World Energy Outlook – the agency dismissed predictions about peak oil demand, arguing that any increase in EVs will be more than offset in robust demand growth from other sectors, including trucks, aviation, maritime transport and petrochemicals. Moreover, the U.S. will apparently be the one that meets that growth in demand. The IEA said that the U.S. shale revolution will mean that combined oil and natural gas will have to rise to “a level 50% higher than any other country has ever managed.” The IEA says that the 8 mb/d increase in tight oil production between 2010 and 2025 “would match the highest sustained period of oil output growth by a single country in the history of the oil markets.” In other words, the shale revolution still has a long way to go, and when all is said and done, the U.S. will have added more supply in a shorter period of time than even Saudi Arabia did at its peak. Taken together, the two reports from the IEA may have just burst the oil price bubble – prices plunged on Tuesday, erasing a large chunk of the gains seen in recent weeks. This article was originally published on The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
grupo: Https:// Supermajors Shell and ExxonMobil square off for the top spot in oil Irina Slav, Published 8:00 a.m. ET Nov. 11, 2017 Pause 0:00 0:00 Fullscreen For the few women in oil, this site creates community Pink Petro has gotten support from large companies in the industry. Video provided by Newsy Newslook getty-row-of-oil-pumps_large.jpg (Photo: Getty Images) CONNECTTWEET 4 LINKEDINCOMMENTEMAILMORE Brent’s close to $65 a barrel and WTI is climbing closer and closer to $60 — and analysts are rushing to make bullish forecasts for the fourth quarter of the year. Big Oil is preparing for an even better three-month period than Q3, when all supermajors beat profit expectations. Two of them stand out: Exxon and Shell. It’s no secret that Shell has ambitions to overtake Exxon as the world’s number-one oil company in terms of value. It’s actually on track to beat Exxon on cash flow from operations for full 2017. The Anglo-Dutch company is also considering a share buyback at some point in the future as financial performance improves and the company gains confidence that it can cover dividend payouts with cash on hand. Meanwhile, Exxon, according to some analysts, is stretching itself thinner and thinner in order to keep its dividend payout ratio at 100 percent, as it has throughout the oil price crisis. The reliability of dividends is vital for oil supermajors since they’re the top reason investors favor the industry these days. Yet, the oil price crash created another vector for Big Oil’s dividend reliability in addition to oil prices, booked reserves, and production. This vector is diversification, as it’s becoming increasingly clear that even if Exxon doesn’t feel threatened by electric cars, they may have another threat to consider. There is also climate change legislation, which, if implemented without delays, will seriously undercut the demand for fuels that constitutes Big Oil’s main revenue stream. Right now, when it comes to diversification of revenue streams, Shell is a step ahead of Exxon. The Anglo-Dutch supermajor recently bought Europe’s biggest EV charging network, NewMotion. It also has plans to double its chemicals business size by 2025, betting big on shale gas. Part of its new planned capacity is a $10 billion petrochemicals complex in the Marcellus shale. More: Goldman Sachs report makes a very bullish case for commodities More: Production quotas in question: Is $60 oil too tempting for OPEC to cheat? More: Energy stock earnings: The remarkable recovery of big oil Shell’s ambitions don’t stop there. It will spend $1 billion annually on green energy projects until 2020, and plans to derive a fifth of its global fuel station sales from EV recharging and low-carbon fuels. That’s in addition to its shift to gas following the acquisition of BG Group two years ago. Meanwhile, Exxon is also spending $1 billion annually on cleaner energy projects, but its focus in predominantly on biofuels and on projects whose commercialization lies far in the future. It is pursuing its core business as it has for decades: expanding in the shale patch. It also recently entered Brazil’s deepwater offshore zone with a $1.2-billion bid for 10 oil blocks at an auction. At the same time, Exxon is growing its petrochemicals production capacity as well. The latest piece of news in this respect was the announcement of a major investment in a petrochemical complex in China. Exxon seems to be a strong believer that petrochemicals and diesel demand from heavy-duty machinery will completely offset any increase in EV adoption. In fact, Vice President Jeff Woodbury recently said Exxon had no problem with EVs, which, according to a company forecast, would only represent 6 percent of the global passenger car fleet in 2040. Exxon won’t have a problem even if gasoline demand ended some day, it will just produce more diesel, Woodbury said. Play Video Royal Dutch Shell reported a near 50 percent rise in quarterly profits, driven by strong refining, while solid cash generation underscored the oil and gas company has adapted well to a world of low oil price. Newslook However, research is happening in the field of electric trucks as well. Tesla is set to unveil its Semi later this month. Maritime vessels are switching to LNG. Nickel and cobalt demand is rising fast, indicating a rather bullish outlook for EVs, contrary to Exxon’s skepticism. In fact, Daimler, which showcased an electric truck at the end of October, believes we’re just two years away from electric trucks that can sell for the same price as diesel vehicles, thanks to the quick drop in battery prices. Can petrochemicals alone drive Exxon’s profits up in the near-to-long term? We’ll have to wait and see, but in the current industry context and global trends in energy demand, Shell’s bet on gas and EVs in addition to chemicals and oil seems a safer one than sticking to the core business. More: Follow USA TODAY Money and Tech on Facebook is a USA TODAY content partner offering energy industry news and commentary. Its content is produced independently of USA TODAY.
chart trader2000: By Sarah Kent LONDON -- Royal Dutch Shell PLC said Thursday its profits more than doubled in the third quarter compared with a year earlier, as improved business conditions and rising production lifted earnings. Shell closed out a strong set of earnings for the world's biggest oil companies, which seem to have regained a level of equilibrium after years of scrambling to adapt to a sharp drop in oil prices since 2014. The British-Dutch giant said its quarterly profit on a current cost-of-supplies basis -- a number similar to the net income that U.S. oil companies report -- was $3.7 billion, up from $1.4 billion a year earlier. CEO Ben van Beurden's vow that the company is in a "lower forever" mentality seems to be paying off, even as oil prices rose above $60 a barrel for the first time since 2015 in the past week. Shell's share price has climbed to levels not seen since before prices crashed three years ago. The company has already shown it is able to cover its shareholder payouts with cash at current oil prices -- a newly important metric for investors worried about the safety of their dividends in a low-oil-price world. Shell also managed to keep a lid on debt levels, which ballooned after its $50 billion acquisition of BG Group in 2016. Net debt fell to $67.7 billion at the end of the third quarter, compared with $77.8 billion a year earlier, helped by a continuing asset disposal program and steep cost-cutting. Shell's success was reflected throughout big oil's earnings in the third quarter, as the industry seems to have adjusted to lower prices. Oil prices have staged a fragile recovery since dipping below $30 a barrel in early 2016, but remain much below their 2014 peak. The international oil price benchmark averaged around $52 a barrel in the third quarter, compared with $114 in June three years ago. Last week, Exxon Mobil Corp and Chevron Corp. both reported increases in third quarter profits of 50% compared with the prior year. French oil major Total SA saw its earnings jump 40%. On Tuesday, British oil giant BP PLC said it could cover its spending and dividends with cash with oil at $49 a barrel.
ariane: BP Signals Optimism With New Buybacks -- WSJ 01/11/2017 7:02am Dow Jones News Total (EU:FP) Intraday Stock Chart Today : Wednesday 1 November 2017 Click Here for more Total Charts. By Sarah Kent This article is being republished as part of our daily reproduction of articles that also appeared in the U.S. print edition of The Wall Street Journal (November 1, 2017). LONDON -- BP PLC on Tuesday said it would restart its share buyback program after posting healthy third-quarter earnings, the latest signal that the oil industry has found its footing amid a modest crude-price recovery. The U.K. oil giant said its strengthened financial position allowed it to begin a share repurchase program in the final three months of 2017, though it didn't put a value on future buybacks. With Brent crude, the international benchmark, trending over $60 a barrel for the first time since 2015, BP's move ranks among the first actions showing big oil companies are healthy enough to sweeten the pot for investors who had soured on the sector. BP hasn't had a share buyback program since oil prices crashed in 2014, falling from over $114 a barrel to less than $28 a barrel in early 2016. Other companies like Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. have also moved away from the practice while they grappled with the oil-price slump. BP said it could restart buybacks because it had driven its costs so low that it can generate enough cash to cover its spending commitments and dividend at $49 a barrel. Investors are increasingly looking at this break-even metric for signs big oil companies have succeeded in shifting their financial frameworks to operate profitably at lower oil prices. "We're confident we can balance the books at $50 next year, and even manage as low as $45. That's what gave us the confidence to raise the idea of buybacks with the board," Chief Financial Officer Brian Gilvary said in an interview. Overall, BP's replacement cost profit -- a number similar to the net income that U.S. companies report -- was $1.4 billion in the third quarter, down slightly from $1.7 billion in the same period a year earlier. But its underlying financials were strong, sending its intraday share price to highs not seen since three years ago, when oil prices were over $100 a barrel. BP shares closed up 1.7% Tuesday in London. The company's refineries reported their highest underlying earnings in five years, its exploration and production unit returned to profit, and the company's oil and gas output surged 14% in the third quarter. BP is the latest major Western oil company to report profitable results for the third quarter. Last week, Exxon and Chevron both reported increases in third-quarter profits of 50% compared with the prior year. French oil company Total SA's earnings jumped 40%. Royal Dutch Shell PLC will report earnings on Thursday. BP's production rose year-over-year to 3.6 million barrels a day in the quarter, as new projects in Australia, Trinidad and Oman began production -- the latest in a series of developments expected to start up by 2020 that will bring the company's production back up to levels last seen before its fatal blowout in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010. BP is still working to move past the disaster, with the final tab growing past $60 billion. But with most of those payments now made, the company has signaled it is ready to grow again and is able to do so, even in a low oil-price environment. Investors have been wary of big oil companies in recent years, concerned they couldn't generate enough cash to cover big dividends. The move "is an important signal on the confidence of the board and management on cash flow," Barclays said in a note on Tuesday. Share buybacks are popular with investors because they reduce the amount of company stock in circulation and tend to boost share value. For BP, the buybacks help offset perceived weakness in its dividend. The company uses a so-called scrip dividend program, giving shareholders the option to take their dividend in stock and alleviating the cash burden of dividends. Such programs proved helpful to oil companies during the downturn, but they also dilute the value of shareholdings. Investors are increasingly eager to see companies fully cover their dividends with cash. So far Norway's Statoil ASA is the only major oil company to announce plans to halt the scrip program altogether, and BP remains among the first to take steps to offset dilution. Mr. Gilvary said BP had discussed the possibility of removing the scrip program altogether with its board, but concluded some investors liked the option. Write to Sarah Kent at (END) Dow Jones Newswires November 01, 2017 02:47 ET (06:47 GMT)
chart trader2000: By Sarah Kent LONDON -- BP PLC reported a healthy set of third-quarter profits and plans to restart its share buyback program Tuesday, signaling the company is increasingly comfortable with low oil prices as it ramps up its growth ambitions. London-based BP said it would start share buybacks in the fourth quarter, supported by strong cash generation so far this year that allowed it to cover its spending commitments and dividend at $49 a barrel. Investors are increasingly looking at this break-even metric for signs big oil companies have succeeded in shifting their financial frameworks to operate profitably at lower oil prices. BP's plans to restart share buybacks next quarter sends a strong signal of confidence to the market. The buybacks will offset dilution from the company's scrip program, which gives shareholders the option to take their dividend in stock. Such programs proved helpful to oil companies during the downturn, alleviating the cash burden of their shareholder payouts. But investors are increasingly eager to see companies able to fully cover their dividends with cash. Of the majors with such programs in place, so far only Norway's Statoil ASA has announced plans to halt the program altogether and BP remains among the first to take steps to offset dilution. While BP's replacement cost profit -- a number similar to the net income that U.S. companies report -- was $1.4 billion in the third quarter, down slightly from $1.7 billion in the same period a year earlier, its underlying financials were strong. The company reported its highest underlying earnings in its refining segment in five years, and saw its exploration and production unit return to profit after recording a loss a year earlier. The company's production rose 14% year-over-year to 3.6 million barrels a day in the quarter, as new projects in Australia, Trinidad and Oman began production -- the latest in a series of developments expected to start up by 2020 that will bring the company's production back up to levels last seen before its fatal blowout in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010. BP is still working to put the disaster behind it, after selling off billions-of-dollars-worth of assets and paying out huge amounts in fines, legal fees and cleanup costs, some of which are still ongoing. But after years of retrenchment, prolonged by the sudden slump in oil prices in 2014, the company has signaled it is ready to grow again and is able to do so with the oil price at $50 a barrel. BP is the latest oil major to report a healthy set of results for the third quarter, signaling that the sector has made good progress in adjusting to lower oil prices. Profits at many of the world's biggest energy companies soared over the period, helped by a stronger crude market and stringent spending cuts. Last week, Exxon Mobil Corp and Chevron Corp. both reported increases in third quarter profits of 50% compared with the prior year. French oil major Total SA saw its earnings jump 40%. Royal Dutch Shell PLC will report later this week. The strong set of earnings plays into a run up in international oil prices to more than $60 a barrel last week -- it is highest level since 2015. That has helped lift BP's share price back to January highs when it closed in on levels last seen before oil prices crashed.
fangorn2: Why the Market for Fossil Fuels Is All Burnt Out Here is an early section of this interesting article by Jillian Ambrose for The Telegraph: If Helm is to be believed the oil market downturn is only getting started. The latest collapse is the harbinger of a global energy revolution which could spell the end-game for fossil fuels. These theories were laughable less than a decade ago when oil prices grazed highs of more than $140 a barrel. But the burn out of the oil industry is approaching quicker than was first thought, and the most senior leaders within the industry are beginning to take note. In the past, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has faced down criticism that its global energy market forecasts have overestimated the role of oil and underplayed the boom in renewable energy sources. But last month the tone changed. The agency warned oil and gas companies that failing to adapt to the climate policy shift away from fossil fuels and towards cleaner energy would leave a total of $1 trillion in oil assets and $300bn in natural gas assets stranded. For oil companies who heed Helm’s advice, the route ahead is a ruthless harvest-and-exit strategy. This would mean an aggressive slashing of capital expenditure, pumping of remaining oil reserves while keeping costs to the floor and paying out very high dividends. “They’d never do it because no company board would contemplate running a smaller company tomorrow than today. It’s not in the zeitgeist of the corporate world we’re in, but that’s what they should do,” Helm says. BP and Royal Dutch Shell are slowly shifting from oil to gas and making even more tentative steps in the direction of low-carbon energy. But Helm is not entirely convinced that oil companies have grasped the speed with which the industry is undergoing irrevocable change. “As the oil price fell, at each point, oil executives said that the price would go back up again,” says Helm. “What the oil companies did was borrow to pay their dividends on the assumption that this is a temporary problem. It’s my view that it is permanent,” he adds. For a start, there is scant precedent for the price highs of recent decades. Between 1900 to the late Sixties oil prices fluctuated in a range between $15 a barrel to just above $30 a barrel – even through two world wars, population growth and a revolution in transport and industry. It was geopolitical events which caused oil prices to surge by more than $100 a barrel following the Middle East oil embargoes of the late sixties and early seventies. They collapsed back to $20 by the Eighties. So, what drove oil prices to the heady levels of $140 a barrel just less than 10 years ago? “China,” says Helm, barely missing a beat. “If you look at both the rapid growth in emissions and the rapid growth of oil, fossil fuel and all commodity prices, it was while China was doubling its economy every seven years. This is a phenomenal rate. David Fuller's view Oil prices spiked above $140 a barrel in 2008 because of supply reductions from OPEC countries, not least due to regional wars. This has never been fully recognised as a huge factor in what is generally remembered as the credit crisis recession which followed. In 2009 OPEC lowered production once again, leading to a move back above $120 a barrel two years later. By 2014 subsidised renewables were gradually eroding the market for crude oil. However, the really big change was the US development of fracking technology, leading to a surge in the production of crude oil and natural gas. We should always remember these two adages, particularly with commodities: 1) the cure for high prices is high prices. These lower demand somewhat but the bigger overall influence is an increase in supply. Conversely, the cure for low prices is low prices. Demand increases somewhat when prices are lower but more importantly, supply is eventually reduced. How have these adages influenced commodity prices in recent years and what can we expect over the lengthy medium term?
chart trader2000: By Sarah Kent and Kevin Baxter LONDON -- The prospect of rising oil prices has the global energy industry considering a strategy that has been unthinkable for much of a two-year-long market slump: Making new investments. Big oil companies are moving ahead with new spending again, says BP PLC Chief Executive Bob Dudley on the sidelines of the Oil and Money conference here. The British oil company he heads has taken final investment decisions on a handful of projects this year and is expected to approve more in 2017, he said. "Investments are back," Mr. Dudley said. "But it's only going to be the very best." Mr. Dudley's comments highlight a pervasive sentiment among oil-industry executives and government officials that there is light at the end of the tunnel, as they grope through one of the industry's darkest moments. For the past two years, the industry has been roiled by oil prices that collapsed to less than $50 a barrel from 2014 highs of $114 a barrel, and never recovering to those previous highs. Now, with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries promising a modest output cut and prices generally on the rise, executives and industry leaders say they have a sense of guarded hope as oil prices hover around $50 to $52 a barrel. Mr. Dudley predicted an oil price of between $50 and $60 a barrel in 2017, compared with prices that have ranged between $28 a barrel and $53 this year. Ali Moshiri, president of African and Latin America Exploration and Production at Chevron Corp., said U.S. shale producers would invest again if prices rise to $60 a barrel. "The phenomenon of shale oil is real and when prices rise to $60 a barrel you will see the level of active rigs rise. This is inevitable," Mr. Moshiri said during a panel discussion. A rising oil price would allow the energy industry to make needed investments, restore some of the tens of thousands of jobs cut in the past two years and stem some of the economic pain rippling through oil-dependent economies from Venezuela to Saudi Arabia. Cuts by OPEC, the 14-nation cartel that controls more than a third of the world's crude production, would amount to about 1% to 2% of its 33.2 million barrels a day of production and help draw down the vast oversupply of oil that has flooded world markets. But OPEC and other oil producers must be careful, said Fatih Birol, the executive director of the International Energy Agency, in an interview here. Pushing prices too high would boost U.S. oil output, stop rapid declines in production in countries like China and Colombia and put a brake on fragile oil demand, he said. Oil-industry investment declined in 2015 and 2016 and is likely to fall again in 2017 unless there is a sea change -- the first time in recorded history that energy investment would decline for three straight years, Mr. Birol said. John B. Hess, chief executive of the New York-based oil company Hess Corp., warned that without new investments, the world's balance of supply and demand would turn quickly from a glut of oil today to a shortage of petroleum in the future. "We're not investing enough ensure that oil supply keeps up with demand, 2018, 2019, 2020," he said. ConocoPhillips Chief Executive Ryan Lance said the recent rise in prices wouldn't be enough for companies to start spending money again on massive long-term projects. "Prices are still pretty low to justify significant investments," Mr. Lance said. Ian Taylor, the chief executive of the world's largest independent oil trader, Switzerland-based Vitol Group, said the oil-market's supply and demand balance would remain out of whack for the next year. His price prediction for October 2017? $54.99, compared with about $52 in recent days. --Sarah McFarlane contributed to this article.
chart trader2000: Hello Share Swiggers. If you have shares in producing oil firms you might want to consider hanging onto them. And if you have spare cash you might research a few likely companies with a view to a bit more investment. The reason is that the price of Brent crude oil is going up again. It is tickling $50 a barrel as I write. It was there a few months ago when the price level caused some excitement. Quite a few oil companies nudged up on the news, including Shell (RDSA) and BP (BP.). A lot of rejoicing went on then in the Stacey household as I hold far too many shares in both companies. But then the oil price fell nearer to $40 dollars again - and Shell, BP and a lot of other big oilers began to suffer once more. But now oil share prices have been easing forward again. And in my view, this time the value of Brent crude will continue to put on weight. I am indebted to ADVFN for a few facts about Brent crude oil. Brent is a special kind of light oil used to make petrol, marine gas and diesel. Crude oil supplies 40% of the world’s needs. The biggest customer is the USA which gobbles up 20 million barrels a day. China is the second largest consumer of crude oil only taking 8 million barrels a day. And I bet you’ve always wanted to know this - a barrel of crude contains 42 gallons of the amber nectar. Oil shares have let us all down in the last few years. But they have been a big profit maker for share shifters like us before that. The big companies tend to pay juicy dividends too. And it looks to me as though the price of oil will go on rising now, as world surpluses begin to be mopped up. So I'm not selling any oil shares any time now. But you must make your own decision. Oil prices are never stable for long. - See more at: hxxp://
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