Oakdene Homes Share Discussion Threads

[spaceparallax] 17/1/2008 19:16

And the slide gently continues.

[shakyhands] 25/12/2007 05:33

Hello,Space.You are probably correct that they see it that way.However,IMHO,they are wrong if they do.In the sort of share markets that we have had for the past few weeks,any shareholders looking to average down would already have done so - and probably regretted it.The only buyers around would probably be bargain-hunters not already in the stock - who would want to know as much as possible about a co before investing in it.They would tend to assume the worst from silence - whereas they might be prepared to tolerate a few known faults.So a comprehensive trading update might stem a falling shareprice,provided the news was not too bad.

[spaceparallax] 21/12/2007 13:20

Shaky,

In theory no TS means no change in expectations. I think OKD can continue to perform, but they have had a history of missing their completion targets for the FY and would probably prefer to break any disappointment to us once only.

[shakyhands] 20/12/2007 10:17

Oakdene really should publish a trading update,as a number of other companies have done.OK,it might not be good news,but hopefully it wouldn't be worse than the market's gloomy fears.Relying on revised broker forcasts really isn't good enough - they aren't official company forecasts,and where are they publicly available? The shareprice has fallen substantially,which is inconsistent with the last,optimistic,forecasts from the company.

[redtelephone] 18/12/2007 08:32

SP IN FREEFALL NOW.LOST ALL SUPPORT LEVELS ABOVE £1.00.

[bluesky4] 14/12/2007 13:32

how long until the profits warning..

but these guys are crafty so and sos.... the house broker downgrades earnings so they don't even have to put out a warning... but may have to in future if they can't meet the downgraded forecasts

Blue

[slapdash] 27/11/2007 10:38

what I can't understand is given that brokers forecasts here appears to have been massively reduced (hosue broker) why has there been no profits warning??? Masters of spin no doubt...

[spaceparallax] 20/11/2007 10:42

Slap,

Have a look at ILX - today's results announce a real turnaround.

[slapdash] 19/11/2007 15:47

RCG are cheap???? getting cheaper by the day it seems... and this one too...

slap

[spaceparallax] 12/11/2007 16:34

Well Slap,

I can't deny that the sp's looking grim and that gearing is high (although I feel that obscene is a foolish description) and does present a certain vulnerability. However, we have no published indications from OKD that problems exist. Like you, I would like to see a set of results where they deliver the number of sales completions expected; perhaps such news might act as a filip? I remain convinced that Newhaven can be a success and that recent housing shortage statements from the Govt suggest sufficient momentum to support the housing market.

All that said, I have taken the opportunity to flog a few OKD's today in order to top-up on RCG, which I firmly believe offers possibly the best value available.

[slapdash] 12/11/2007 08:28

although if any homebuilder goes bust... it will be Oakdene.. due to obscene level of gearing and inability to generate cash...

Slap

[slapdash] 07/11/2007 08:30

was never in BDEV... just thought it or Persimmon would be lower risk play on housing sector than OKD... possibly now might be time to buy both... Slap

[spaceparallax] 06/11/2007 12:03

Slap,

It's difficult to argue with most of what you say. I am however convinced that Newhaven will be a success - it's in the right location i.e. right next to Europe. Furthermore, OKD have acquired sufficient area, much of which is pretty rundown, to enable them to turn an eyesore into an oasis at presumably pretty competitive prices.

As you say, they must move forward carefully and aim to contain or preferably reduce their debt levels, which are undoubtedly high. The flip side being that they offer an attractive PER to investors and are probably the most glittering acquisition prospect around.

Mr Turnip remains an enigmatic character in the mould of Sinatra.

O/T, when did you give up on BDEV?

[slapdash] 06/11/2007 11:08

trades of one day don't make a good investment space..

Will be interesting to see how this turns out... most highly geared housebuilder and selling second home (and therefore discretionary) flats... i.e. will Newhaven be a white elephant or not..

also unlike other housebuilders this one hasn't actually generated cash which means it has continually come back to the market for more money.... that source must now surely be closed...

there was an interview with CEO Turnip on Bloomberg where he said that if hosue prices become "unaffordable" the mortgage guys would inovate to find a product which would make the affordable... hmm... wishful thinking maybe...

also Oakdene has bought a huge amount of land/plots at what might be the top of the market...

we shall see.... obviously though Turnip's wife divorced him at just the right time.. (shares sold at about £2..)

What is frustrating is that it looks cheap but they keep on downgrading earnings.. they have done it twice now... on the sly with the house broker shifting them down massively..

potentially this could have major issues in my view as they are too geared and probably can't raise any more equity.. together with flats possibly not selling... we shall see...

Slapper

[spaceparallax] 31/10/2007 10:06

Were the big trades yesterday Buys or Sells? The share price recovery would suggest that they were Buys.

[trendie] 31/10/2007 09:59

What is going on here?

[ffedup] 30/10/2007 20:06

and yet the share price went up?

[redtelephone] 30/10/2007 14:57

244,000 has been sold this afternoon.Director sell?

[slapdash] 30/10/2007 14:35

according to my screen house broker has downgraded earnings here....

Slapper

[hybrasil] 30/10/2007 09:14

Edmond J
I know you have been here since honeygrove days. I had a big chunkof it. I sold having visited the swaylands site with the then md as I guessed (and was proven right) that they didnt have the capacity to deliver and hence the sale to oakdene. I agree more houses are needed (look eg at ireland where a country 1/15th the size of GB was building roughly half of the number of houses built in GB annually. There will be a boom (look at government policy)but sentiment is massively against builders and sentiment seems to have stopped people buying- look at humberts rns today.
Until the market picks up these are a short. They are worth asset value but no more and the problem about asset value is it is declining. So I remain with my 80p.

[luchan] 25/10/2007 09:25

Hybrasil,

80p not likely I feel with a low pe & high growth for next year even in spite of current market conditions.

However I will be looking to get in here if the slide continues.

luchan.

[edmondj] 25/10/2007 09:08

The trend in UK population stats though - loads more immigrants to come, rising birth and longevity rates - means the stark fact, insufficient houses are being built to meet demand, with the South East as the most dynamic region. Maybe even Newhaven, one day!

Value at some point but I agree, hard to buck the current sentiment.

[hybrasil] 25/10/2007 08:54

Still way overvalued. Net assets are £18 million less than the market cap.

Good value at £o.80p?