|O Twelve Estates
||EPS - Basic
||Market Cap (m)
|Real Estate Investment & Services
Real-Time news about O Twelve Estate (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|daniel: The fact is this, the Board must understand that less competent management in real estate companies that have suffered huge dilutions have gone nowhere. The share price is held down for ages. On the other hand, companies like Minever and Quintain; which have completely avoided dilutions or at rock bottom prices while their portfolio valuation improved have gain over 500% in share prices in past 15 months. There is no better placed real estate company in the LSE with similar opportunity than OTE with the approach of the Olympics.
Topvest comments may be designed to talk the company down in the hope acquiring large shares, otherwise I cannot justify why a holder would be clamouring for dilution.|
|daniel: Put your mouth where your heart is my friend, and stop scaremongering.
It will certainly be irresponsible and suicidal for the board to seek equity fundraising at this late stage of the game, after the share price has been decimated, except they have an evil agenda. Particularly; given the stability and modest increase in the property value, reasonability of modest disposals and the fact that the Olympics is so near.
What makes this board one of the best in the real estate sector of recent years is the skills with which they have managed OTE's property portfolio and finances by avoiding huge dilutions. The board could not now throw all its achievements away, irrespective of the pressure from brokers and advisers who wish to line their own pockets; otherwise what's the point of disposing a precious jewel in the crown.
Phillip Rhodes, Chairman of O Twelve, said: |
| "The uplift in property values during the second half of the financial |
| year was a welcome bright spot after what has been the deepest and |
| furthest reaching property downturn in recent times. However, the |
| extent and duration of this upturn remains uncertain. Therefore, with |
| the assistance of our Property Adviser and the continued support of our |
| Lenders, cash preservation and generation coupled with strong asset |
| management continue to be the key focus of the Board." |
| David Tye of Rugby Asset Management added: |
| "Prospects for the real estate market have improved. We believe that O |
| Twelve's Target Area of activity is well placed to take advantage of |
| this optimism. The Olympic Games are fast approaching and the |
| unprecedented public and private investment that is driving Europe's |
| largest single regeneration project around Stratford, London's East End |
| and the Thames Gateway is gathering momentum and this should result in |
| a strengthening of occupational demand."|
|topvest: Given they have lost 90% of shareholders funds (based on the latest share price), I think that's a bit generous. Does look good from here though and Rugby Estates are good managers.|
|daniel: Given the excellent progress made in this company over the last year, the appropriate share price for OTE relative to MNR is 50p. The management have not been communicating with the market effectively in order to reflect the true financial state of the company. An update is due|
|topvest: The best value for shareholders, I think, is to run the business as an independent company for a few more years. The property valuations should benefit from the run up to the 2012 Olympic Games, which was the original reason for setting the company up in the fist place. I do think that we may get back to about 50p at some point, maybe in a couple of years time. Downside is that there is no prospect of a dividend until LTV is below 70% - so this is a capital upside 2/3 year bet imho. Lets be prudent and say we get to a share price of 30p and a NAV of 50p in 3 years. That's still a very good return, so happy to hold for recovery, particularly as Rugby are good asset managers.|
|ydderf: according to my calcs, after the disposal, nav is 25p-33p depending on whether the swap is included or not, and uplifting the value of the remaining properties at 7% yield, which is probably about right.
question is, what now?
the company is effectively bid proof because of the strategic holdings, there is no divi or prospect of one, and the debt is still there, along with the swap liability.
a 50% discount would give a share price of 12.5p - 16p, but in the medium term it is likely to drift back even if it reaches this, like many others. Look at Quintain Estates for example, or SDIC, or CARE etc etc
the harsh truth appears to be, that high gearing depresses propcos share prices because of the uncertainty. e.g will there be a renewed decline in values when interest rates rise, or after the Election tightening, or if and when the banks unload?|
|daniel: The Directors need to state clearly to the market if they know of any reason for the significant decline in the share price. The share price now requires a 100% increase to be back at October prices. Given the debt restructuring, agm, share buy back and other important events since Sept, the share price anomaly is of concern.|
|envirovision: Well I could not but help myself by some of these earlier today, are there any other holders out there. It seems to me OTE should pull through this year and given the gearing we could be inline for quite a giddy share price appreciation as time rolls by.|
|daniel: It is perhaps true for some of those criminal managements; but OTE's are not so. Rather than diluting existing shareholders to oblivion and offering the company to strangers; they have secured one of the best deals in terms of debt restructuring and offered to buy back shares rather than dilute the company/shareholders with equity funding. Shareholders and management deserves to be rewarded by a good recovery in NAV & Share price and that remains the objective.
The Olympics is no longer far away and OTE is best placed to benefit.|
|237gmoney: Well done to all holders here, have been watching this company from day one and saw its demise with property values falling. Seems a takeover is going through this week as property prices start to rise again.
However I did buy into a stock instead of this one two weeks ago and it has only moved up a tad so still potential if anyone is interested. Stock ticker is CBAY (hard to trade although I bought via TDW) they own 65% of MEDQ in the US and MEDQ share price has risen from $2 to $9 a share since May. CBAYs investment in MEDQ is worth over £143m yet there mkt cap today is only £78m. CBAY is also a profitable company itself so not a one trick pony.
I guess once word gets out CBAY will see a rise similar to this at OTE but Im happy to wait. Anyway CBAY worth a look but as ever DYOR, all my own opinion.
Good luck with OTE though, other property plays will start to come good as well, its just about finding the right ones at the right time.|
O Twelve Estates share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange