O Twelve Estates Share Discussion Threads

[paul1967] 13/4/2010 10:33

ydderF - 13 Apr'10 - 10:28 - 244 of 245
you said that at 11p
can it not just be an overlooked share offering good value?

[induna123] 13/4/2010 10:32

Spiked to 20p last time we saw this.

[ydderf] 13/4/2010 10:28

a mere £28k of shares traded - keep this in perspective - my guess is a tip in some rag, there's hardly any serious buying interest judging from the average bargain size, seems to be the usual penny punters, salami slicers and cfd gamblers.......they will want to give all their stock back in a day or two, just like last time

[induna123] 13/4/2010 10:23

wow, what's going on here?

[ydderf] 13/4/2010 10:10

Is it now selling at a premium to published NAV?

[wattzy] 13/4/2010 09:56

Does anyone know a rough calc for nav, cheers.

[5dally] 13/4/2010 09:54

and up we go :-)

[paul1967] 13/4/2010 09:48

last time property value was still falling, they had not reduced debt, all that is now different, IPD index is rising not falling, the levearge on values works in OTEs favour now. So you can't compare 6 mths ago with now.
The comapny have paid debt down 12 mths early, being run well.

[mreasygoing] 13/4/2010 09:27

crawford - 13 Apr'10 - 08:40 - 234 of 237


I'm the idiot paying 12p :-)


If you were prepared to pay that, it might have been better to wait to see if it breaks out from 12p. It fell back sharply last time it reached this level.

[paul1967] 13/4/2010 09:06

Under valued with limited supply of shares.
Panther Securities PLC 36,650,000 29.92%
Utilico Ltd 28,175,179 23.00%
Threadneedle Investments 11,655,844 9.51%
Rugby CGLP Ltd 6,694,502 5.46%
Rensburg Sheppards Investment Management Limited 6,500,950 5.31%
Ameriprise Financial Inc 6,000,000 4.90%

[5dally] 13/4/2010 08:57

Fill or kill only on TD :-)

[missagain] 13/4/2010 08:47

Just tried topping up and Selftrade got a limit of 1500 shares on line .....oohhh

[crawford] 13/4/2010 08:40

I'm the idiot paying 12p :-)

[paul1967] 12/4/2010 21:39

shares14 - 12 Apr'10 - 21:03 - 232 of 232
Hard to predict.
Year end was 31st March 2010
I think with the new property valuations being done we should see a good increase in NAV. The last valuation was done in September 2009.
Since then we have paid down debt 12 mths early, so financially stronger.
Certainly see 25p as good value, current market cap of £13m looks very good.
They have very few shares and it is difficult to buy more than 5000 without putting a limit order in.
Looking further ahead to the 2012 Olympic Games in 2012, i would imagine nearer 50/60p if not more.
If you look at December IPD index
It had The fifth-consecutive monthly gain, which amounted to a compounded growth of 8.8%, so say 10% 3 moths later, that would add approx £15m to the £147m property valuation. Given the market cap is now £13m you can see where these may go that is without taking into account profits, interims showed pre tax of £2.9m.

[shares14] 12/4/2010 21:03

paul1967,do you have a short-term target here,iam thinking of a small holding could be a could investment..

[paul1967] 12/4/2010 17:18

Paying more than the offer today, not many shares out there and thats why they have soaked all the recent sells up. could be fun

[navyan] 07/4/2010 14:29

true, high risk high return it is :)

[paul1967] 07/4/2010 14:25

cheers but i try to avoid oil. Great gains but can have large pains.

[navyan] 07/4/2010 14:17

paul, take a look at RXP, good funde, just started a new uptrend. lots of potentials and all that..

[paul1967] 07/4/2010 14:08

why, hardly a spike, just consolidating, may retrace a bit, but there are few shares available, i'll buy more next retrace, long term these will be 20p plus so just build a position, people will wake up one day 2v2 level 2 KBC moved up.
Quite happy holding these for the next 12 mths or so.
Some get bored if the share price does not move so sell, let them who cares if you have a long term view.

[ydderf] 07/4/2010 13:31

three days later the price and volume are again losing momentum, looks to be a re-run of previous spikes (see chart), after all.......

[paul1967] 04/4/2010 16:42

i,d imagine full year pretax should be good relative to market cap, i doubt there will be further write downs? Interims support a higher market cap on there own.
East London property investor O Twelve Estates (LSE: OTE.L - news) has sold a Swanley industrial estate for £24.4m, against its most recent valuation of £17.8m. This has helped cut its loan from Nationwide Building Society to £145m. This gain on NAV will help to wipe out the net liabilities on the O Twelve Estates balance sheet

[topvest] 04/4/2010 15:30

The best value for shareholders, I think, is to run the business as an independent company for a few more years. The property valuations should benefit from the run up to the 2012 Olympic Games, which was the original reason for setting the company up in the fist place. I do think that we may get back to about 50p at some point, maybe in a couple of years time. Downside is that there is no prospect of a dividend until LTV is below 70% - so this is a capital upside 2/3 year bet imho. Lets be prudent and say we get to a share price of 30p and a NAV of 50p in 3 years. That's still a very good return, so happy to hold for recovery, particularly as Rugby are good asset managers.

[wattzy] 04/4/2010 14:30

Interims were impressive but that has not refelected in the price, which was surprising considering there has been no mention of fund raising. There has been virtually no news since the interims but the last rns for me has completely derisked the share as a short/medium/long term hold. I am looking forward to the re-evaluation of the companies assets and expect the price to keep rising considering the still tiny mkt cap.

Thanks Paul and the other guy's for the more informed posts about the companies true value. It is really appreciated.

Good luck all

[paul1967] 04/4/2010 13:05

Looking at the presentation for half year sept 2009.
After this period (not included) was An agreement for lease was reached on 83,000 sq ft at Larkfield Mill to All Saints, the fashion retailer,
adding over £330,000 per annum to the rent roll after a rent free period. The actual lease was completed
after 30 September.
at 30 September stood at 9.4% by rental value. The rental value of vacant space at
30 September was £1.6 million of which £0.5 million was under offer. Assuming these potential lettings complete
the void rate will fall to 6.7%.
And the Company intends to
seek to renew the necessary authority to buy back Ordinary Shares at the forthcoming Annual
General Meeting.
I guess we will get an upto date valuation on the portfolio too for year end