O Twelve Estates Share Discussion Threads

[paul1967] 31/3/2010 22:13

navyan
I very rarely do any research lol,
i just sit at the pc and play games. ( if only) No accountant but i know the basics and sometimes that is better. How many invest in banks and understand their accounts, even the banks don't!;-)))
Getting a pill my head is banging like a drum.
will do some more research on another share then. ( i mean play games)

[navyan] 31/3/2010 22:10

lol... thanks Paul. you can probably tell I have done even 'less research' than you! ;)

[paul1967] 31/3/2010 22:09

ydderF

Sorry if i sounded off, reading my posts again they appear a bit grumpy.
I have a banging head so obviously my pain is showing in my typing;-))))

[paul1967] 31/3/2010 22:06

navyan - 31 Mar'10 - 20:50 - 192 of 192
012 = O Twelve lol

[navyan] 31/3/2010 21:50

paul, what is 012? also wonder with this good news out, maybe its about time for directors to load up some of these to show some confidence.

[paul1967] 31/3/2010 21:43

"012 is now safe in my opinion."
Well it is in a much better position, and yes took the market by suprise.
Was a day of news today, had a job keeping up with it all.

[topvest] 31/3/2010 21:28

For what it's worth, I think we should be at about 15p now. Further rise tomorrow I think. This has taken the market by surprise and announced late in the day. 012 is now safe in my opinion.

[paul1967] 31/3/2010 20:08

"your assertion that you can 'put a 37% increase on the rest' - this is nonsense - you can't apply a 37% uplift across the rest of properties.
"
I know you can't.just saying "if "you could. The point is, these were valued in september 2009 by knight frank, we are 6 mths down the line from there, and the recent sale demonstrates property values have increased.
Read MNRs last valuation done also by knight frank.
31 December 2009. Investment property valuation increase of 9.7 per cent .
We have had no valuation in 6 mths, so these will now have a higher NAV and less debt.
"caused by letting previously empty parts combined with hardening yields"
Yes and what do you think they have done with the rest of the portfolio?
Fact is they have satisfied a debt obligation 1 year early.
Not many i know refinanced and achieved that.
Rensburg Sheppards Investment bought 6.5m in the 6.75p and 7.5p range,
They obviously do quite well


panther have never sold even when they were 14p in august 2009.( having paid an average of 3.5p)
Why i wonder.
Yes a holder from 3p, and not selling, the same attitude i had with mnr at 6p when similar people tried to point out debt issues and yields, were they right or me?
These will be 20/25p plus this year after full year results.interims showed pre tax £2.96m profit, i imagine a tad more full year with a market cap of £11m.
Either sit on the sidelines and watch or join in. Your money i can't force you.
"presumably you are posting all this lazy underesearched stuff "
I am no accountant, but i know what shares make me money, and i dare say i know more about the company than most, i try my best, sometimes digging too far into figures actually cost you money by not investing.
Let us see if my 3p investment was wise in 12mths, or your cautious approach
Based on MNR 9% increase, that would be £14m increase in portfolio valuation, more than the market cap of the company, just the increase.And that was in December 2009, we are now in march/april 2010.

You may like to look at INL Inland, not a ramp it does not need it, but worth looking at, again, figures not my speciality, but ask me any question about them i can answer it through my "lazy underesearched stuff" And yes they will be nearer 40/50p in 18mths current 20p again not saying buy, but worth a look.
Planning consent due soon and director picked up another 150k today. well worth you "indepth research"
As for misleading people, i would hope they do their own research and form their own opinion before parting with THEIR money. I have no intention of misleading people, but offer my view.
The correct view will be known later in the year if these are at 7p as you suggest or nearer 20/25p as i suggest.

OTE why do i like them?
Because i can see 12/24mths down the road. No fast buck or i would have been long gone.
"we believe that O Twelve's Target Area is looking forward to a particularly bright future. The Olympic Games are approaching quickly and we are now starting to see the effect of the unprecedented public and private investment driving Europe's largest single regeneration project around Stratford, London's East End and the Thames Gateway. This, coupled with the Target Area's historically low capital and rental base values augurs well for future growth."
And also
•LTV will not be tested until the Lenders receive the portfolio valuation as at 31 March 2011,( 12 mths time) at which time LTV must not exceed 85%, reducing to 80% from 31 March 2012 and 75% from 31 March 2013.

[ydderf] 31/3/2010 19:45

paul1967 - your posts are difficult to follow and don't make much sense, but referring to your assertion that you can 'put a 37% increase on the rest' - this is nonsense - you can't apply a 37% uplift across the rest of properties.

The portfolio was valued in September on a 8% yield, applying 37% uplift would mean that the portfolio would be worth 5.8% yield - even today's statement makes clear the special circumstances of the sale valuation, i.e caused by letting previously empty parts combined with hardening yields.

presumably you are posting all this lazy underesearched stuff because you are a holder or punter and want to make a quick profit? nothing wrong i that, but
i suggest a more thoughtful analysis or that you read a book about basic accoutning before you try to mislead people here....

[paul1967] 31/3/2010 19:21

"will there be a renewed decline in values when interest rates rise, or after the Election tightening, or if and when the banks unload?"
What?
They have a term agreed until December 2014
•LTV will not be tested until the Lenders receive the portfolio valuation as at 31 March 2011!!!! ( one year away)
Lenders will not demand early settlement of the liability, except for the reduction of the facility to £140 million on 31 March 2011
TODAY that stands at £145 million after the recent sale
so liabilty stands at £5m for the next 12mths.

[paul1967] 31/3/2010 19:13

if you put a 37% increase on the rest of the portfolio though, these were valued in September 2009, today indicates the property portfolio is now much higher.
Nav will increase if 37% across the portfolio to about £50m
No divi but not many real estaes do.
The difference here is they have had and do not require a placing, others were effectively bankrupt, these are not, they now have paid off all but £5m of march 2011 debt."The facility will reduce to £140 million on 31 March 2011"
Well £5m short and 12 mth to pay it.
They managed unlike many others to re finace.
They have property in the area of the 2012 olympics.
"effectively bid proof "
Umm Panther own 29% no doubt, at some point they will do what conygar did with TAP, buy them out.
Conygar are cash rich, yet pay no divi.
"high gearing " yes look at MNR, bought at 7p, now 100p, look at their gearing.
These should be nearer 20p.
In october 2009 they had •NET ASSET VALUE PER SHARE 24.90P
No wonder Rensburg Sheppards Investment bought 6.5m recently

[ydderf] 31/3/2010 18:59

according to my calcs, after the disposal, nav is 25p-33p depending on whether the swap is included or not, and uplifting the value of the remaining properties at 7% yield, which is probably about right.

question is, what now?

the company is effectively bid proof because of the strategic holdings, there is no divi or prospect of one, and the debt is still there, along with the swap liability.

a 50% discount would give a share price of 12.5p - 16p, but in the medium term it is likely to drift back even if it reaches this, like many others. Look at Quintain Estates for example, or SDIC, or CARE etc etc

the harsh truth appears to be, that high gearing depresses propcos share prices because of the uncertainty. e.g will there be a renewed decline in values when interest rates rise, or after the Election tightening, or if and when the banks unload?

[paul1967] 31/3/2010 18:31

Excellent news, the facility with Nationwide Building Society due to be reduced to £140m by march 2011 is now only £5m away and 12 months to pay it.
Not only that, the property portfolio was valued in September 2009 at £171m, given they have achieved 37% premium to the september value on one asset, means these will get a serious NAV increase on the next valuation. Valued at £11m, these are a bargain.
Also cash held back by the bank can now be released for working capital as the LTV will allow it.

[topvest] 31/3/2010 18:20

This is a fantastic disposal for 012. Pretty much at one stroke it solves their medium term debt reduction target. It will also have a massively positive impact on year end NAV and LTV gearing. Great move!

[wattzy] 31/3/2010 16:31

Market cap is tiny, would expect a nice rise from here.

[gill17] 31/3/2010 16:18

Great news. I've been holding this at a loss for so long I had almost forgotten about it. 10p would be nice.

[wattzy] 31/3/2010 16:08

Excellent news, had some of these for ages. Was impressed by the last trading update/ results, but under the radar it seems. One of the only property companies not to raise money through a rights issue. Will hold for next 2 of years.

[truckertee] 31/3/2010 15:51

Good news.

[truckertee] 18/3/2010 11:26

ydderf
These are all pub sales from what I can see. Considering how the smoking ban has decimated pub takings overall and has forced the sale of previously profitable pubs ( 7 pubs/clubs closures per day in England and Wales last year)
would you expect a mad rush to buy in at top end prices?

We're looking to profit from regeneration around the Olympics - and although they're two different areas - when the Scottish Parliament opened the prices in Leith (a run down area within Edinburgh) went through the roof.
These properties were all in regeneration areas - and places that yuppies wouldn't look at prior to the parliament suddenly became the place to be and you couldn't buy for love nor money.

Let's wait and see what the interims bring, hopefully we might get a pleasant surprise.

[soggy] 04/3/2010 07:33

Can anyone say if we're expecting any news which might get the share price moving again, apart from the interims which I think are due in March?

Getting quite boring watching this one....and can't help feeling my dosh would be better working for me in another share - but not if there's about to be an announcement...

[paul1967] 01/3/2010 11:29

Looks good given IPD index keeps going up

[truckertee] 25/2/2010 16:00

Rensburg increased their holding between the 18th and 23rd by 1.9m to 6.5m, so the demand is there but we're not seeing the share price increase to acknowledge this buying activity.