|Nsb Retail Systems
||EPS - Basic
||Market Cap (m)
|Software & Computer Services
Real-Time news about Nsb Retail (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|timsnaps: Happy, healthy and prosperous New year to all! It's also Au revoir as I sold my little lot just a couple of days after the announcement before Christmas.
Didn't seem much point in hanging on as I couldn't see a counter bid coming. and the money has been gaining interest elsewhere ever since. We had been waiting so long for a bid it seemed unlikely there would be two.
I have to say what a waste of time and effort the last 3 years have been with NSB. For a long time I had threequarters of my investment money in NSB and I think it was the share overhang that killed the share price rising. Every year they came out with good figures and were cash rich, but the price stubbonly refused to budge as into any rally there were sellers. Having reduced my holding a year ago, I finally gave up a month before the offer as the share price dropped and sold all but 10,000 just to keep an interest.
Talk about timing! How unlucky can you get! Still, not going to top myself, but damn annoyed!
Well done to all those who held on. The way my luck has gone with NSB you may well get a further bid now. LOL
Anyhow, good luck to everyone with their future investments and it's been good to chat with you.
|markinthepark: Probably worth re-reading this from 01 November......I'm sure EJ will providing an updated review soon on today's bid news....and remember NSB has £17m in cash in the bank......and zero debt...what a great aquisition target this represents....
"The difficulty with bid speculation however is anyone contemplating an offer likely having to pitch it much higher than current market value...."
NSB: A good risk for the patient
Among 'special situation' themes that may offer investment value, a current one is UK-listed smaller companies with most if not all their business in the US. This is a tricky area of the stockmarket because you are engaging shares that are well out of fashion and may stay so for a good while; but it is an interesting one for small cap investors who like to examine where market pricing is out of line with intrinsic value.
If you look at charts for both Superscape (SPS) - the mobile games publisher - and NSB Retail Systems (NSB), the retail software group, both shares have plunged. Superscape has a genuine reason in reporting lower than expected sales, and dollar weakness (which undermines the value of profits/assets for UK investors) has affected many UK-listed firms operating in the US. The downward trend for small cap shares is exacerbated as investors cut losses in the order-driven SETS market, brokers drop coverage due to lack of buying interest, and this kind of share ends up cold shouldered. Realistically, a re-rating then needs a progression of strong trading results to offset the weak dollar, or a bid.
Growing software sector
NSB merits following because the US retail software sector continues to grow and worthwhile cost/revenue initiatives are being taken by the group's new chief executive. One US independent analyst has projected annual growth of about 10% over the next five years, in specialist software for stores and merchandising. Retailing is a dynamic business and in the US especially, logistics keep changing and improving, hence opportunities for IT providers. NSB is also making better progress internationally, with this as a priority.
Although a new CEO usually provides a prop for confidence, since David Henning's appointment was confirmed last March and he took control in June, NSB shares fell over 25% to 22p. Amid the fall, a non-executive director bought 50,000 shares at 27.75p in May, possibly a reflecting belief in NSB's overall intrinsic value, however currency factors sharpened against the business. NSB's Canadian operating base for US sales has meant rising costs versus lower revenues, with the Canadian dollar strengthening versus the US. The fall still looks severe. De-ratings are justified when there is the likelihood of a new boss declaring various exceptional charges in a restructuring, yet NSB has no such risk. Its 11 September interims (to end-June) showed a financially robust business in decent health.
Despite modest, 8% revenue growth to $46 million in the first half-year, licence orders rose by 74%, adjusted operating profit by 23% to $10.5 million, pre-tax profit by 49% to $10.6 million and normalised basic earnings-per-share by 11% to 2.45 cents. For UK investors, currency depreciation removes some of the shine, dulling revenue/EPS growth in single percentage figures, but there is still a respectable business here. NSB has paid a $0.55 cent interim dividend and cash balances rose $1.3 million to $34.6 million. Costs are under tight control and there is no debt.
I think it should be possible to target at least £10 million profit for 2007 even after adjusting for adverse exchange rates, and the equivalent of 2.5p to 3.0p earnings-per-share.
Two major risks are involved. If the slump in the US housing market seriously affects consumer spending and retailers have to batten down hatches, this could involve deferring capital spending such as IT. Secondly, there is the off-chance of a capitulation in the dollar if international investors (especially the Chinese) stop supporting the US Treasury bond market hence the country's overall finances. But in such a financial disaster scenario, plenty more shares would plunge.
These factors still do not account for why NSB shares trade on a price-earnings ratio likely in single figures, for its earnings progress during 2007, relative to ratings in the teens for comparative US shares such as JDA Software. Admittedly, JDA has achieved 13% revenue growth in its third quarter, relative to 8% for NSB's first half, but timing issues affected NSB (for example a higher proportion of solution business, which is accounted for on a percentage of completion business) and remember NSB's 74% recent rate of growth in software licence intake.
International expansion is a prime development focus, with 'significant' business being won in continental Europe and a large client won last year in Australia and New Zealand. Two further significant contracts recently suggest progress is being achieved and a specific executive appointment has been made to drive this. Hence double-digit revenue growth ought to be realistic in the long run.
At the time of writing, NSB shares have risen by 2p to 24p, which may indicate the market is starting to appreciate an over-sold share. NSB's capitalisation has only recently slipped below £100 million and the shares' normal market size is 50,000, hence decent liquidity. Yet among 3%+ shareholders, there appears only to be Aberforth Partners left. Selling down by UK institutional holders deciding not to retain a relatively small stake in a North American business may also help to explain a sluggish market in recent months if not years.
At 24p per share, NSB is capitalised at £91 million with annual turnover about half that, so the price-sales ratio is potentially attractive to acquirers. The difficulty with bid speculation however is anyone contemplating an offer likely having to pitch it much higher than current market value, so realistically it is not as if the low share price makes NSB especially vulnerable.
Overall, despite the nagging risks of currency factors and the US economy, NSB has an attractive risk/reward profile in a 20p share price range. Holders are likely to need ongoing patience but stand a fair chance of upside.|
|timtom2: mitp - perhaps this is already in the NSB price.
$ has another 20% fall in it.
Big money already knows this and has been ditching $ dependent stocks - NSB is already in the dog house. We may not be far off the bottom as NSB share price will no doubt lead the results and the share price in the toilet now already.|
|markinthepark: To be honest it looks like the only hope for NSB share price to shift now would be the obvious attraction it might have for a US business takeover that could shift all its operations to the US........those friggin exchange rates are a millstone around the company's neck which it is costing the company dearly.......|
|loafofbread: This is from cath on iii in response to my post asking about the gossip at Retail Solutions at the NEC. Hope he doesn't mind.
Nothing technologywise - thers a surprise!. Couple of interesting items from the guys on the exhibition stands. Torex's expected announcement re Gores delayed as 3i have put in a higher counterbid - expect movement next week. Torex shareholders to get zilch as expected. BT have formally expressed interest in the Torex ArcIris convenience and forecourt retail operation following the buyout. This would be part of the asset sell off and will appeal to the banks. Should be good for BT (BTe). BTE/NSB nothing except CEO of BTe going to NSB in Canada later this month. NSB share price not reflecting anything - just rumours|
|ekuuleus: Canadian dollar strengthening against USD. Narr, USD weakening against $C.
Whats more important is that this is not a blip. USD will continue weakening over next 5 - 10 years, so this has to be factored into NSB share price.|
|dime: Agree Boozey, especially in light of RTD which I did expect to have had more impact on NSB share price. Overall market pull back spooking things i expect.|
|boozey1: As LOB would say what a pile of pooh. No wonder he is busy decorating, watching paint dry is far more fun than watching the NSB share price go nowhere fast.|
|boozey1: interesting post LOB and worth the wait. does the final price of the house you just bought depend on the performance of the NSB share price over the next 6 months?|
|calamity: Thanks TimTom but..........It's 15 months old news........good for you to post it for new comers.........but what we long termers yern for is news that is up to date.............the company does not appear to be getting the contracts that we thought would be streamin' through the door...........my thoughts on that are I think the managment thought companies would be banging on their door as Microsoft were partners in .net.......and they wouldn't have to go looking.............well they now have to by all accounts with their statement some time back they were "beefing up" the sales department........somewhat a bit late in my view...........if you were here some years back the Director responsible for Marketing and Services....Mark Quartermain.... departed the company ref. AFX issued on 08/07/03........and later when I attended the EGM for the security document at their Theale headquarters on the 13/11/03....I asked during that meeting via video link to Montreal with Nickie and Stuart there and the Non-Exec. Chairman Richard Abraham and company secretary this side of the pond about his replacement.........there was to be no replacement and Nickie and Stuart would provide cover for this position as well as their own responsibilities...........I don't know whether this was to do with the BT buy out which came after that meeting and was not illusidated on.......however I now feel the eye was taken orf' the ball over a period of time and hence the "beefing up" of the sales department over the pond..........not here as BT now do that..........I'm really disappointed with how NSB share price has not performed over the past 18 months....to think it was about 39p now over 18 months ago...and we were all thinking then..weh heh.......here comes 50p or more....and with no bad news.....ok you could say It's moved a bit over the past 3 or 4 months.....but there's no news flow of contracts at all.......pretty poor if you consider their so called cutting edge technology of .net........no action on getting rid of the market's perseption of an overhang due to the exchangable shares position..........no dividend.........now by some accounts they would not be able to pay a dividend if they still have losses to account for ??????????...I know nothing of this.......but if they have no dept.....what's stopping them paying a dividend or make an annoucement of intent at sometime in the future.........but no statement ever comes from them.............unless Nickie wants to sell a few..........and that is about June next year I believe when she gave an undertaking not to sell any more till then..........then there's Moorers shares about 20 odd million I believe.........now an ex-director and would probably wish to get rid of a few when the price rises..........there's so many shares there and around for selling into a rise only to knock it back..............that's why I sold about half of my holding recently.........couldn't see clear skies.........and my hope has vanished somewhat for anything to happen...........talk about languishing..........
Here's that AFX for the time..............dated 08/07/03......27 months ago...
NSB Retail Systems exec director Mark Quartermaine steps down
LONDON (AFX) - NSB Retail Systems PLC said Mark Quartermaine, an executive
director responsible for Marketing and Services, will be leaving the group
effective Aug 11 to join a UK company in a non-competitive sector.
Nsb Retail share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange