Redde Northgate Share Discussion Threads

[bearraider] 19/6/2008 00:07

NTG does not buy £6,500 combo's on 3 year £49 a week finance contracts

It buys it's vehicles through a central buying unit, obtaining some of the best discounts available to any company.

It finances the vehicles from funds borrowed through the private placement loans in the USA and the syndicated bank loans in Europe NOT ON HP

It rents the vehicles out on a diversity of contracts from day hire to long term rental. The Norflex scheme giving maximum flexibility to clients to rent without fixed term contracts.

It defrays all costs interest, depreciation, RFL and service costs and all central and depot costs from the rent charged. With a healthy 20%+ profit margin.

It sells the bulk (in UK) of the ex-rental vehicles through a variety of wholly owned channels to give some of the best residual returns in the business.

[bearraider] 18/6/2008 23:42

With utilisation rates of 91%

and a 22% profit margin

it would seem that NTG got the 'problems' of integrating Arriva fairly well sorted.

[bearraider] 18/6/2008 23:36

Thanks Steve/Dave

All very helpful!!!

Best of luck with your short

[davegame] 18/6/2008 23:13

steveglobal, who told you to delete the posts you posted in 2002. I can only guess that it would be the directors of Northgate themselves is that why everytime you post you always put ''in my opinion only'' seems very strange that so many posts were deleted, and why after 6 years of almost no posts you suddenly come on here and post everyday, and since you have posted Northgate are in uncharted territory all seems very strange to me, I think something is not quite right at the moment.


Steveglobal why have you just crawled out the woodwork after 6 years.


you can answer on your thread, I have no doubt you will read this.


And I have no doubt we will go to your thread to read your reply.

[davegame] 18/6/2008 22:51

tom he could be 'a' 'b' and 'c' lol

[bearraider] 18/6/2008 19:46

Dave

Steveg has several of his own threads you can follow his posts on. The one that gave the best laugh implies I work for NTG - there he states that interest on a £6500 loan on a combo would equal £49 a week (NTG cost of interest is less than £9 a week on that size loan)you can read it all there.

[tomkite] 18/6/2008 19:45

Steve Global was very very well informed on this company,was he a) ex employee b) shareholder c) employer of a rival firm??? no matter what,he was good for info.I hold stock at all sorts of prices so cannot get out.I am simply working on the basis that this company have performed brilliantly over the last 10 years so I am backing them to put it right.

[bearraider] 18/6/2008 19:38

Worcle

A profit warning that comes out of the blue, will always send the share price down
A perception that profits are going to fall badly may send the share price down too far(oversold) when the profit warning/downgrade comes because it is not as bad as is already priced in, the share price may well recover (providing investors believe it is not a profit warning in a series - they often say profit warnings come in three's)

I have owned several shares which recovered after the profit warning/update one was Norbain,(now private)but you are correct that it does not happen to many shares after a profit warning - nor am i saying it will happen at NTG.

NTG has stated it expects 2007/8 to meet mkt expectations, It has not issued a profit warning. Hopefully it will provide some current year trading info (though only 2 months of current year will have elapsed)and some forward looking info at the same time. This may be worse than the Mkt has priced in already, or the same or a better outlook than expected in which case though the expected profits for the present year may be lower than the current forecasts it is not quite the disaster that is priced into the shares already.

At this stage no-one knows

[woracle] 18/6/2008 14:25

Can u give many example of a profit warning that when published sent the price up ? I cant recall many..

[queeny2] 18/6/2008 14:25

still havent managed to short any, but still think thats the way to be. now praying for surprisingly strong results to send it up 10-20% with shorts scattering so I can join the party then.

[bearraider] 18/6/2008 14:00

The importance of outlook is true for every company, when the going gets tough in the macro business environment it is even more so. The big question is how much has the future prospect changed, can NTG still trade profitably even if at a reduced level, that reduction may already be in the share price 'a profit warning' may therefore have very little impact (it may send the share price up if the profit warning gives a higher figure than the market has already priced in.

[zimzoot] 18/6/2008 13:15

indeed...the picture has changed a lot since march...its all about the outlook :)

[bearraider] 18/6/2008 12:52

From the Management statement of 19th March (just before closed period about 6 weeks before year end)

Northgate PLC said it continues to make good progress and expects its full-year results to be in line with current market forecasts.

Mkt expectations are posted in the header.

Any warning COULD be about profits in the current half/full year which in view of the changing macro economic climate is not surprising and looks like it is already in the current share price. July 1st will give us some idea hopefully.

Last statement from management was they were still looking for acquistions and had finance to complete it. However in current market they will be need to be very careful indeed and only complete if the value is exceptional.

[gohunk] 18/6/2008 12:17

Zim, there wont be a profit warning.....

[tomkite] 18/6/2008 11:45

Dear Bear,I have never indicated that I was a supporter of JG so quit with the smart talk,I am simply replying to the article!!!! which,if i recall is what we are supposed to do!!!

[zimzoot] 18/6/2008 11:42

Wait till the profit warning

shares will tank :)

[gohunk] 18/6/2008 11:28

Queeny, no worries mate, wasn't having a pop mate.
re the aqusitions....not from what i hear...they are being kept quiet though...or at least were lol.
Poland, germany, switzerland...spring to mind....
Bear, thanks, i will try and bear that in mind.
cheers for the words of wisdom.

[queeny2] 18/6/2008 11:09

thanks bear, and gohunk I was passing on his views - I think what he meant was this is a great short because it could even, if things get steadily worse, be worth little more than its debt, and interest cover could fall to much lower levels - that's two "could's", not "will's".

That could happen to any company with as much financial leverage and operational leverage as this one.

Acquisitions - i think they've backed off that haven't they?

bear - debtors would include vehicles sold but not paid for, few days at most surely so tiny, vehicles in stock but unsold would be assets. I would think all the debtors book is true debtors, and bad debts will be higher than previously for sure, but I have no idea of quantum. just something to watch, esp. in Spain

[bearraider] 18/6/2008 11:01

Go hunk

If i knew the exact answer to that I would be very rich!

Several things guide me

I work on support levels (A line drawn trough the longterm share price graph that touches either several prev lows or previous highs or a mixture of both) I wait to see if these hold and an uptrend develops. As i have stated before there are some of these points in the 350-390p range. However if that area fails there is nothing below 350p you can use.

I watch the buy/sell ratio most of the levelling and upticks in NTG have occured in the morning or whilst the sells are in the majority (I do not have level 2 so advfn can be an inaccurate indicator of true buy/sell) these are often MM's playing about trying to get a share price reversal so they can sell some of the shares they are sitting on.
I am watching for the price going up when buys are in the majority.

[bearraider] 18/6/2008 10:48

Tomkite

If you are such a big fan of steveg the NTG deramper (not just his alter ego) suggest you post on his two NTG deramp threads. If you are an NTG shareholder and trust him then you need to sell your shares as he predicts they will be worthless in less than a year!

If you are a customer of NTG suggest you save yourself some money and move to one of the 'cheaper' rental companies you mention as a Norflex contract does not tie you in to Northgate.

Northgate has more than 7 resale outlets of it's own, the VANMONSTER brand has 8 sites selling 20% of the better vans to retail customers at a higher margin than the majority it disposes of through its 5 Northgate sites to the Trade. Which is in addition to the remarketing arm which sells low mileage/near new vehicles through main dealers. Of course you can arrange to buy an ex-rental vehicle through any of Northgates 82 sales sites in the UK and Ireland, who can arrange to maintain the vehicle purchased.

[tomkite] 18/6/2008 09:52

Gohunk,Steveglobal from an article posted earlier

[gohunk] 18/6/2008 09:33

Thanks bear, any clues as to how we spot and decide recovery has definately begun, as it has flattered several times a day lately ??
thanks