Northern Investors Share Discussion Threads

[jaws6] 12/6/2013 08:40

skyship
tks, just looked it is 9.6 p divi

[skyship] 12/6/2013 08:25

Relax.......XD today!

[skyship] 10/6/2013 17:32

Garbet - Thnx for that.

NRI is my 2nd largest holding after ACD...

[garbetklb] 10/6/2013 15:47

Lloyd's insurer Hiscox are the world's largest provider of Kidnap & Ransom (K&R) insurance and part of their package includes exclusive use of Control Risks both to handle any incidents and to provide advice & intelligence to policyholders operating in dodgy (and not so apparently dodgy) parts of the world.
The relationship with Control Risks was seen as a key selling point for Hiscox over their competitors and goes back many years - and when the underwriter moved from Cassidy Davis to Hiscox, his ability to transfer CR's allegiances was crucial.
So, whilst I know nothing about the finances of CR, I'm very comfortable with them as a company dominating at least one of their niches.
The sale of IG doors has generated a very typical 26% gain on last holding value - although the holding value has been up and down rather more than normal. High of 1,736 (30/09/11) to low of 1,001 (30/09/12).
Garbetklb

Disclosure - NRI is my largest holding by far; I also hold Hiscox

[skyship] 10/6/2013 14:12

Thnx Jaws - indeed, another encouraging RNS:

"NRI announces the sale of its investment in IG Doors Limited, which manufactures steel and GRP composite doors, to the Hörmann Group.

NRI received cash proceeds of GBP1.91 million for its holding. The carrying value of the investment in IG Doors in NRI's audited financial statements for the y/e 31/03/13 was GBP1.51 million. The uplift in NRI's net assets resulting from the sale is therefore GBP0.4m, equivalent to c3.3p/share. The disposal is consistent with the orderly portfolio realisation strategy being pursued by the Board."

[jaws6] 10/6/2013 11:46

Good rns in nri

[jp69] 04/6/2013 14:23

Expected more volume this week with a 9.5p divy for the taking very soon (ex div on the 12th)

[janeann] 31/5/2013 09:38

many thanks

[janeann] 31/5/2013 07:54

skyship; have read your posts here and on the srei thread as I too am looking for a good home for some recent sale proceeds. Many thanks for your thoughts. Im in PCTN, MCKS,SREI, and haveing looked at your suggestions reckon NRI is probably the better of the bunch, especialy given the recent rise in DCS. The one concern is the potential large seller continuing.

Any other thoughts/suggestions welcomed?

Thanks Janeann

[janeann] 31/5/2013 07:54

double post sorry

[badtime] 28/5/2013 19:38

took a nibble at a shade under 2.92

[spittingbarrel] 28/5/2013 14:55

Just dipped a toe in at 2.92

[topvest] 24/5/2013 21:54

I\'m going to await some more sales from the seller - 600,000 is still a lot to clear if they are selling all of them.

[spectoacc] 24/5/2013 08:55

Added some more today.

[nitnia] 16/5/2013 19:14

Yes, my thanks as well.

[bobdouthwaite] 16/5/2013 17:15

Yes, Sky, the analyses are much appreciated (and acted on) - thanks.

[wirralowl] 16/5/2013 12:06

Many thanks for sharing your in-depth knowledge, Skyship, a very encouraging post. Pleased to have added earlier in the week.

[skyship] 16/5/2013 09:39

NRI has been pretty well dormant since the Dec'12 tender; but this week's Prelims reveal that the underlying portfolio has been performing well and as a result the end Mar'13 NAV has increased yet again to a highly satisfactory 363.8p – up 4.0% on the 31st Dec'12 figure.

The two largest holdings – Kerridge Commercial Systems & Control Risks - were afforded valuation increases of 25% & 35% respectively. A concern is that this success has further concentrated the portfolio so that those two holdings now represent 28.1% & 14.9% - a combined 43%. It is of course a price of success; and the Board is well aware of a problem which can only logically be resolved through disposal. Bring it on...

For me, the most encouraging part of the Chairman's Statement was the reaffirmation of the liquidation stats and timetable. Here there has been no slippage, in fact a minor improvement as they've raised the floor target from 120% of the Mar'11 net assets to a new floor of 125%. They've also raised the proportion to be distributed by 31 Mar'15 from between 60%-80% to 70%-90%.

I posted a year ago the following liquidation targets:

Calcs:
59.6 + 20% = 71.52 – 12.80 = 58.72 / 15.128m = 388p
59.6 + 30% = 77.48 - 12.80 = 64.68 / 15.128m = 428p
59.6 + 33% = 79.27 - 12.80 = 66.47 / 15.128m = 439p
59.6 + 35% = 80.46 - 12.80 = 67.66 / 15.128m = 447p (New line)
59.6 + 40% = 83.44 - 12.80 = 70.64 / 15.128m = 467p
59.6 + 50% = 89.40 - 12.80 = 76.60 / 15.128m = 506p
59.6 + 60% = 95.36 - 12.80 = 82.56 / 15.128m = 546p

(£59.6m was the Mar'11 net assets figure; £12.8m was the cost of the first tender)

I argued at the time that the floor was likely to be a lowball target as why would the Board post a 120%/160% straddle if they weren't totally confident of comfortably exceeding the base figure. So it would seem, hence the raising of the floor.

Hitherto for my own spreadsheet I have assumed a relatively conservative 133%, ie 439p. After these new numbers I've modestly raised my target to 135%, ie 447p.

To calculate a Gross Redemption Yield (GRY) we also need to set a target date, in reality an average date. With now perhaps 80% (£47m) being distributed within two years, I have brought forward my weighted average date from an over-conservative 30th Jun'16 to a hopefully more realistic 31st Dec'15. NOTE: With 80% paid by 31st Mar'15, the balance of 20% could stretch into 2018 for that average date still to be achieved! In reality the tail should be completed within 2016.

Using these numbers the GRY @ the current offer price of 292p = 17.6%pa. Adding in the 3.25% current yield on the 9.5p dividend and we achieve a GRY of 20.85%; though realistically that current yield will not be sustainable, so choose a figure somewhere between the two – I'll settle for 19%pa.

[cockerhoop] 15/5/2013 15:35

My apologies - the description could probably be applicable to several companies.