Northern Investors Share Discussion Threads

[glynnef] 06/3/2015 08:02

So if at a similar discount to NAV as offered a year ago, ( 415p v 420.5p ), should be offered around 500p. Nice growth in a year!

[skyship] 06/3/2015 07:27

Tender terms out later today; and based upon a higher NAV than expected:
=======================================================================

UNAUDITED NET ASSET VALUE AS AT 28 FEBRUARY 2015

Further to the announcement on 27 February 2015, Northern Investors
Company PLC ("the Company") confirms that a circular giving details of a
proposed tender offer to shareholders is expected to be published on 6
March 2015.

The tender price will be based on the Company's latest published net
asset value per share, adjusted for the costs of the tender offer.
Accordingly the Company is pleased to announce that the unaudited net
asset value per share as at 28 February 2015 was 506.3 pence.

[garbetklb] 27/2/2015 07:45

RNS thismorning - Tender announcement delayed for a few days.

I wonder (hope!) if this means another asset sale is expected to be announced very shortly?

Garbetklb

[stupidboypike] 11/2/2015 09:20

SKY, of course, many thanks. Best regards SBP

[skyship] 11/2/2015 09:16

Post the Tender the NAV will remain the same as the Tender will be conducted at cNAV.

IMO the question is what does one make of the valuations of the other holdings?

I agree, NRI certainly haven't over-egged their past valuations; so we could well see further upside, especially in the case of Control Risks. However, they continue to talk of 2017....so could be a long, slower tail.

Personally I'll tender 100% and await opportunities.

[skyship] 11/2/2015 09:03

SBP - you've missed this para from today's RNS:

"On 9 February 2015 the Company announced the sale of its investment in
Kerridge Commercial Systems for net cash proceeds of GBP16.4 million.
The directors have valued the investment at the sale price for the
purposes of calculating the unaudited net asset value per share as at 31
December 2014."

[stupidboypike] 11/2/2015 08:54

Any tender offer veterans got any advice here? I understand that business as normal is to tender all then buy back at a cheaper price any shares you want after the tender. Problem here is I'm not convinced that one will be able to buy back cheaper after the tender. NAV end Dec is 490 and after the recent sale may have added another 30p, so NAV could be 520. If around 40% of the shares are cancelled at a price of 490 doesn't that increase the NAV potentially to around 540? Also, as we have seem NRI tend to be very conservative with their NAV. Any thoughts anyone?

Best regards SBP

[skyship] 11/2/2015 07:55

NAV = 490.8p; Cash = £21.3m:

[skyship] 09/2/2015 13:28

The last Investment Portfolio summary was about two-thirds of the way down in the 11th Nov'14 Interim Statement:

[garbetklb] 09/2/2015 13:18

GlynneF
Thanks - overlooked that.....
Would be v good if they provide a split by the remaining investments - or,at least, the top 10.
Garbetklb

[glynnef] 09/2/2015 12:58

Garbetklb,
The tender RNS says they aim to give us the NAV as at 31st Dec this Wednesday, 11th February.

[garbetklb] 09/2/2015 11:53

I'm v pleased the Kerridge investment has been realised - at an uplift on last holding value of between 12% and 18% depending on the earn out, it's good, but not as high as many. NVM's valuations are consistantly conservative.

BUT, it restores a bit of balance to the remaining portfolio and, as topvest says, helps derisk the remaining investment.

The updated range of outcomes will be v interesting - shame they don't appear to be aiming to give an updated NAV & values of individual holdings.

As NRI is my biggest holding by some margin (now BBM redeemed), I was getting a bit twitchy about my exposure to Kerridge, an unlisted investment.

Garbetklb

[skyship] 09/2/2015 10:57

SBP - No, you are quite right - nearer to 44% - thnx for that.

Control Risks becomes our largest holding at £7.7m ex c £24m ex-Tender, ie c32%.

CR is a really great business; and regrettably very much a business of our time - look what happened to the upstart FLX when it listed last year! CR is mature 1st Division in the Security/Intelligence game; and I suspect that stake is still substantially undervalued.

[stupidboypike] 09/2/2015 08:51

Just looked through the remaining top 5 NRI holdings and I have to say I'm pretty happy to carry on holding here. As topvest says this now de-risks a lot. known NAV now at around 490 if the deferred comes in from Kerridge (480 if not) and a promise of a NAV review with tender offer. NRI seem to have a habit of pleasing on their NAV updates!

Best regards SBP

[topvest] 09/2/2015 08:22

Great news and really de-risks this one.

[stupidboypike] 09/2/2015 08:13

SKY, they are distributing at least 18.5m. which looks closer to 44% to me. Have I missed something? (I usually find I have when I'm contradicting you!!).

Best regards

SBP

[skyship] 09/2/2015 08:06

Indeed, after the Kerridge disposal it looks like a 35% Tender @ c495p perhaps:

[spectoacc] 09/2/2015 08:03

More good news this morning.

[nk104] 19/1/2015 16:12

Still wombling in an upwards direction. There's usually an IMS at the start of February so hopefully we'll get some more news then.

[stupidboypike] 22/12/2014 17:11

enjoying very much SKY, thanks once again for the initial idea. Best regards SBP

[skyship] 22/12/2014 15:56

430p-440p - a pleasing run which hopefully others are enjoying too!

[skyship] 18/12/2014 15:32

Perhaps not price sensitive info!

[skyship] 09/12/2014 11:16

RNS today reveals NAV now up to 465.1p (459.9p):

[skyship] 26/11/2014 11:25

Other than the confirmation of the increased portfolio valuations, the extract below is the other critical piece of information from the Interim statement:
================================================

Corporate strategy
Since July 2011 a total of £41.5 million has been returned to shareholders through three tender offers, priced at NAV, also through dividends.

Our managers are currently working on several exit prospects and we expect to announce a further Tender Offer when sufficient funds are available, but at this stage it is not possible to confirm the precise timing.

Our latest review of the projected cashflows from the portfolio showed that the range of likely outcomes has not changed significantly from that previously indicated. Based on a starting point of £59m of net assets in 2011, it remains our estimate that, including cash already distributed, the equivalent of 100%-115% of this sum (approx.. £59m-£68m) could be distributed to shareholders by March 2015; and ultimately 140%-165% (£82-£97m) by the end of the process in 2017.
………;……̷0;……R30;……230;….
………;……̷0;……R30;……230;….
In particular, the estimate of cash to be returned by March 2015 is highly sensitive to the timing of a small number of key realisations which could be subject to delay for unforeseen reasons.
===================================================================

From this we might infer, given a fair wind, a Tender next February/March following imminent disposals in the range of £20m-£25m – pretty chunky, though obviously could be largely filled by the KCS stake recently valued at £14.6m.

My guess is for a 50% Tender at an increased NAV level of 475p. Would go some way toward explaining the upward creep we are seeing in the share price