Northern Foods Share Discussion Threads

[mrphil] 16/3/2017 14:04

Too busy eating ice cream by the seaside with the granddaughter so I was late spotting the jump in the pound! Just grabbed a few euros on my return and managed 1.1498 which is a small step in the right direction.

Still a bit misty and murky looking across to the IOW but there were a few boats out there.

[aleman] 16/3/2017 12:47

One member votes for increase and £ jumps. It's now back in the middle of the range it's been in for months - so all that Trump $ up, Brexit £ down, inflation, EU break-up referenda/politics and whatever else has moved the £ nowhere against $ and Euro since last October.

[aleman] 16/3/2017 11:41

Next into admin? Cato reports awful Q4 and warns on Q1.



Discounters still doing strongly

[aleman] 16/3/2017 10:43

I haven't mentioned that much. Moody's and Fitch have been quietly downgrading quite a few corporate borrowers. On its own it doesn't mean much, but ...


Economic cycles trundle on. Borrowing defaults have been rising as banks pull out and non-bank lenders expand riskier subprime. Write-downs are starting to show significantly in financials' accounts reporting. I don't believe Trump's election will make the credit cycle different this time. I don't see how he can stop it apart from maybe making it worse. Tread warily.

I've offloaded SIV to use the tax loss. It's cheap to forecasts but I think forecasts could get hammered if rates go up and the economy slows. It'll probably stay on my monitor, though. It could be worth buying back if I'm wrong on the economy.

[mrphil] 16/3/2017 10:35

Hate to add fuel to the fire Aleman, but I've just had today's email update from Experian and out of 28 companies listed, every single one has been given a lower credit score!

[aleman] 16/3/2017 10:30

Let's see, £ very weak recently, inflation already racing above target, stockmarkets hitting highs and the US and China lift rates, while ECB talks about lifting. How would the UK react to a surprise rate rise or, at least, a few members voting for a rise? UK LIBOR suggests a rise in a few months.

[mrphil] 16/3/2017 10:29

SIPP currently up on the day by more than my first annual wage!

Mist has nearly gone but no sign of any sunshine.

[deanforester] 16/3/2017 10:23

+1°C this morning and misty. The mist has now dispersed. Another nice day ahead.

And the market is up with miners racing ahead.

DF

[aleman] 16/3/2017 10:11

Lots of US government departments should shut down indefinitely today. I've not heard anything from main media yet.



Atlanta Fed's GDP forecast for Q1 drops to only 0.9%. In only 6 weeks, it has fallen from 3.4% to 0.9%. The US deficit was already forecasted to jump next year on better numbers than this




Good news, stockmarkets up. Bad news, stockmarkets up.

[mrphil] 16/3/2017 09:43

Aleman, they have included "higher pensions costs due to the falling GILT yields" but haven't mentioned auto-enrolment which is a further unwelcome cost to business. Our GP is down drastically against last year with the added extra cost of the exchange rate which we have only partly offset so far, but are now beginning to pass on.

SIPP doing very nicely so far today.

[aleman] 16/3/2017 09:31

Haddock ones are nice, MrP.

I missed SBRY's LfL to March at -0.5% - better than Q4 but shy of other supermarkets.






800 jobs threatened as Brantano enters second admininstration

[mrphil] 16/3/2017 08:12

Morning All.

We've lost the sunshine this morning after another glorious day yesterday. Pity as we're taking the granddaughter down to the seaside for lunch.

Aleman, I think I probably have to agree SBRY meals tend to be better than TSCO and I particularly like their taste the difference fish cakes.

Anyone here holding HCM? It's on my watchlist but I have never held so I guess somebody must have mentioned it at some time. Doing good this morning!

[aleman] 16/3/2017 07:58

Good morning. Sunny again. :-)

Sainsbury's LfL (Argos excluded) deteriorated in Q4 to -1.4%. (Shares -3%) Is that a UK economy issue or SBRY issue?

I generally shop at SBRY but occasionally go to TSCO because it is nearer. Having not been for a while, I tried a few of their own label products in the hunt for things the whole famliy might enjoy. While they were cheap, they were so poor we only finished one of three pasta dishes and one of three types of gourmet fishcakes. The peppercorn kievs were awful. I noticed they seem to have reduced salt at the same time they have tried to make them cheaper - a very difficult thing to do and I'd say TSCO failed. I also got the Mediterranean bread which used to be excellent favourite but is now just okay. I was actually so shocked how naff the food I bought was that it is a topic of conversation with friends and family.

SBRY prices have been rising of late and there is a lot of repackaging and product change going on. My guess is some financially pressed SBRY customers might drop down to TSCO and that may benefit their numbers short term - but will they stay if Tesco are producing garbage to match Aldi, Lidl and Morrisons on price? My experience means I will avoid TSCO after last week - Aldi and Lidl offer much better quality. Fortunately, I can afford to shop at SBRY. I hope they do not react to their slight sales loss by following TSCO on quality.

I can't say what it means for shares as I have no idea if other food shoppers will buy the same stuff and feel the same way. I might just have been unlucky. I'm going to have to try harder to find more time to make home-made meals if supermarkets can't make decent stuff.

[aleman] 15/3/2017 22:00

I posted a similar article with similar charts previously but note the last paragraph and chart in this one - director buy to sell ratio in US in Feb reached the lowest for 29 years. This has been happening with companies running up new levels of debt to buy back quarterly record or near record amounts of shares - and now that debt is getting more expensive. Are directors pumping up prices with shareholders' money so they can sell out themselves before it all tumbles down?

[aleman] 15/3/2017 20:54

Not many results in US now but there are still odd significant poor ones:

Guess numbers spoiled by weak falling sales and margins in the Americas



Whirlpool shares ease after US shipments slow.

[aleman] 15/3/2017 20:13

UN says Africa needs $4.4bn aid to alleviate the drought in 9 countries and civil wars in 10 countries. Total African development aid budget from around the globe in 2015 was $54bn. UK's £12bn foreign aid budget sent £2.54bn to Africa in 2015 which was nearly enough in itself (before £ fell). Where is this money going if it is not available to help the most needy? The $4.4 already seems to be there if they just suspend or postpone existing African Aid projects spending for one month. Alternatively they could suspend/pospone 1/3rd for 3 months, as the deadline for the $4.4bn was given as 3 months away. The news headines all about Charities appealing for more but what is happening with existing funding? The droughts and civil wars did not start yesterday.

[blueliner] 15/3/2017 19:42

-0.14% today. [FTSE250 +0.07%]

Worst value fallers : CLIG -9%, IGR -3.3%, CSN -2.8%, MCS -2.5%.

Highest value riser : BGO +9.1%, HAYT +8.4%, BRWM + 1.9%.

Folio should be in profit today but a completely erroneous closing bid on CLIG has thrown a spanner in the ADVFN figures no doubt corrected tomorrow.
BGO nice rise, now in profit, alas my trimming back, you never can tell with results.

Best day of the year so far wall to wall all day.

[deanforester] 15/3/2017 17:43

I'm up just +0.050% on the day today (FTSE100 +0.147%).

Best rises: IMI +1.3%, LGEN +1.2% and RIO +0.9%.

Worst falls: CLLN -1.5%, INDV -0.9% then NG. and S32, both -0.8%.

Not a lot of movement today, but edging upwards is fine. BATS go XD tomrrow.

Did some gardening this afternoon, trying to remove Ivy that is swamping a Philadelphus. 3 bagfuls to the dump.

Probus lunch tomorrow and the AGM, then Rotary Past Presidents' Dinner in the evening. That's at a Thai restaurant, which used to be Indian. I might drink tea.

DF

[mrphil] 15/3/2017 17:27

As with others, SIPP was well into positive territory all day and fell off towards the close, ending with a huge gain of +£15.47 with top risers LLOY, ALD & CTO. The pot did better with +0.49% thanks to LLOY, LGEN & RR.

The Real Marigold Hotel tonight, after a short stint at the local Tesco, but need to negotiate the new front path first which I gather can't be walked on for 24 hours!

[aleman] 15/3/2017 17:12

Opened nicely up and fell away again as usual - but perked up in last hour for a changee. +0.3%.

Sunny with a little hazy high cloud. +15.4C.

[skinny] 15/3/2017 16:57

My SIPP finished up 0.12%.

A slow start, then wall to wall sunshine since @10:30 @176°C.

[freddie ferret] 15/3/2017 16:00

Warm in the sun but otherwise not so warm.
Around all square at the time of writing, but like Aleman I have noted a drop off near or on the close.

Lot is going on at the moment.
I predict a general election in the next four months.