Northern Foods Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 10/2/2017 16:48

Hope it breaks a bit sunnier for your trip, MrP.

S&P 500 earnings forecasted for 2017 are ambitious (+11%) but they are slowly being revised down. The MAJORITY of Q1 guidance this year has been adjusted downwards. Meanwhile the index has still been rising (Forward P/E now 17.4 at 2315 versus 10-year average 14.7). One of the two will have to give before long - forecasted earnings will need to rise or the index will have to fall. There is also the common sense argument that the P/E should be lower after a long bull run - say 12. So, to get to sensible value requires a 30% fall to bring the P/E to where it should be even if earnings DO rise 11%, which I think unlikely unless the $ falls. And if recession comes and earnings fall 10-20%? That could be a near 50% fall without a big overshoot. Overshoot could easily take the fall past 50% - but how far?



(Notable reductions in Q1 forecasts since this article are Twitter, Amazon, Coke and Time Warner, amongst many .)

Meanwhile some of the commentary trying to talk earnings up are starting to sound a bit stretched.




+0.2% for me.

Two profit warnings made for a bad week. YTD now -4.5%. Remember 2% of that fall was the cash withdrawn for my tax bill but it's still not a great start to 2017.


Pellet snow this afternoon but didn't really settle. Grey and colder than this morning. 3.5C high in a very brief sunny interlude.

Have a good weekend, all.

[mrphil] 10/2/2017 15:30

Leaving shortly so I'm reporting an hour or so early but I doubt it will change much!

Good week all around, despite disaster with DX. The SIPP managed +0.27% on the week and is now +1.11% YTD, the pot leapt by +1.80% and is positive again for the year at +0.14% and the Virgin ISA managed +0.97% on the week to a YTD of +1.30%

Somebody must have heard I'm on holiday for a couple of days, we had a snow flurry just now!

Enjoy your weekends.

MrP

[mrphil] 10/2/2017 14:52

Washed the car at lunchtime ready for our trip. Will obviously be filthy in no time but it's nice to start out with it gleaming! Only 3°C and very dull while I was doing it, and a bit of dampness in the air.

Aleman, "salaried workers who are given routine pay hikes...." that's pretty frightening!

[aleman] 10/2/2017 13:27

Occasional very light snow flurries here make it damp but a few glimmers of sunshine make it feel better indoors. Outdoors, the breeze now makes it feel colder. We had a touch of frost on the garage roof again.


Just what is the real rate of typical price rises?

[deanforester] 10/2/2017 11:27

Another dull misty, drizzly morning. Just above freezing, but feeling raw.

Good results from Reckitt Benckiser.

Pub lunch soon.

DF

[mrphil] 10/2/2017 09:24

freddie, I continue to hold enough DX. to make a difference if it does recover to the levels we are all hoping, but not enough to do as much damage as it did recently! Even so, it's still managing to be my biggest faller so far today!

[mrphil] 10/2/2017 08:50

Morning All.

I lose track of standard "travel" exchange rates as we obviously use a more commercial rate so those rates look poor, but I guess they are competitive. I managed just over 1.25 against the USD yesterday and I think we are at just over 1.17 against the euro.

Just completed this months questionnaire for the Markit PMI report on UK Manufacturing. Orders show a decline against last month but that was distorted by one large order, and we are actually well up on last year but it doesn't ask that! Like many of these reports, the results have to be taken with a large dose of salt!

[aleman] 10/2/2017 07:42

Good numbers from Electrocomponents and Heathrow this morning - both showing a stronger trend in the latest period. Goodness, it's hard neing an investor when there is so much contrast between some of the numbers.




Cheers, bl.



Their forex rates look pretty reasonable and I understand this is a strong growth area for pawnbrokers.

[freddie ferret] 09/2/2017 19:21

Cold here. DX. remains a question mark. I think I will continue to hold. Quite a good day for me.

[mrphil] 09/2/2017 17:28

DF, neck and neck with the FTSE100 is probably no bad thing with all the volatility around at the moment. Not sure when I'll get the weekly figures done as I'll be on the road by the time the market closes tomorrow. This month's contribution has gone into the SIPP this week and probably won't all be invested in funds before tomorrow night so I'll need to be careful to get the figures accurate! With the recent antics of probably my most risky play DX. it might be a bit ambitious to hope for a gain on the week!

[deanforester] 09/2/2017 17:23

I'm up +0.285% on the day today (FTSE100 +0.566%).

Best rises: AZN +2.0% then CLLN and VOD, both +1.6%.

Worst falls: S32 -3.4% then KGF and TW., both -1.4%.

Dull and dismal all day. I don't think it has been much over +1°C today.

Reversal of fortunes v-a-v the market today, but I am currently neck and neck with the FTSE100 YTD.

DF

[aleman] 09/2/2017 17:03

Broadly broke even today.

Cold, grey and dry all day. Did try briefly to drop some near invisibly fine snow but gave up quickly. 2.5C after 0.9C. Colder and snowier forecasted.


Overall US earnings are said to be coming in at +7 to +8%, just about matching forecasts. (Remember oil and miners are recovering so rest maybe not doing so much .) They usually beat forecasts as they tend to get tweaked down so they can be beaten by most. If they are not quite matching them, why are shares still rising to even more stretched P/Es? The weaker earnings updates seem to be the ones that are less international and more domestic. It's hard to separate US performance out of global performance to get a better picture of what is going on..

[mrphil] 09/2/2017 17:01

Another decent day, the SIPP managed +0.44% with GSK, LLOY & DX. in top position, despite my drastic reduction of the latter! The pot managed +0.50% thanks to AMS, LGEN & LLOY

Death in Paradise and Unforgotten this evening. The latter will get recorded but not sure when we'll watch it as we're off to Cornwall tomorrow afternoon!

[mrphil] 09/2/2017 15:03

I see Snapchat is another one getting a totally insane valuation (£25bn) even though it has never made a profit and looks like it's unlikely to!

[aleman] 09/2/2017 12:36

Not so bad here. It's cold and grey but it's dry and we don't yet have the forecasted easterly breeze yet



A record number of East Anglian companies are getting into financial distress. Despite banks going easy on them so far, insolvency numbers are likely to increase in 2017.




Business rate increases are expected to drive up Scottish insolvencies

[deanforester] 09/2/2017 11:33

Just above freezing here first thing, with light drizzle. A quiet day is planned.

DF

[aleman] 09/2/2017 10:48

More hints the US is going into recession.

[aleman] 09/2/2017 10:16

An awful lot of people sold at 6-7p on Monday. At least we did a bit better than we might have done.

[mrphil] 09/2/2017 10:05

Well done on DX. Aleman. Very frustrating that it actually rose the day before all hell let loose and I nearly sold a few then but wrongly assumed "somebody new something"! Just sold slightly more than half and managed around 9.6p which is a lot better than the 6p we were being offered the other day!

[aleman] 09/2/2017 09:49

The decision to wait on DX. has paid off. I've sold this morning at 40%+ higher than I would probably have got on Monday. There could be value there, quite possibly in the form of a bid, but I now think it is very weakly placed for a UK recession, which I think is very likely this year. The loss will significantly offset gains I have booked elsewhere in this tax year.

[mrphil] 09/2/2017 09:31

Grabbed a few USD this morning as the rate seems to have improved a fair bit of late.

[mrphil] 09/2/2017 08:34

Morning All.

Enjoy your break Skinny.

Dropped to 0.5°C last night and only 2°C by 6:30 but interestingly no sign of any frost.

Glad to see DX. continues in an effort to redeem itself.