Northern Foods Share Discussion Threads

[blueliner] 07/2/2017 17:45

+0.70%, missing that profit warning, commiserations to others. [FTSE250 +0.99%].

Highest value risers : BRSN +6.9%, PHTM +5.1%, SDV +1.9%, BGO +3.1%, PEW +2.1%.

Worst value faller : BP. -4.1%.

Lightened the load with PHTM, see I could have left well alone.
BP. need $60 a barrel to sustain dividend burden longer term say brokers.

Max temp 9C, another day of sunny intervals.

[aleman] 07/2/2017 17:29

I recovered slightly as the afternoon progressed but DX's huge fall still left me down a hefty 2.3%. I did not think DX was recession-proof but felt it was already so cheap it should not fall much further on poor news and that would allow an exit if necessary. I got that wrong. THey now look incredibly cheap - but why? What makes me wonder is how things could deteriorate so quickly since the results when things seemed to have stabilised since the warning of a year ago. (I thought about buying more.) Like freddie, it makes me wonder what else is going on. It must be at risk of a bid at this price. Competition can pick it up for peanuts. Whilst DX does present certain risks, a sale to a competitor would bring cheaply bought cashflow, rationalisation savings and take a weak player out of the market, which might raise margins for all that remain - a trio of benefits for less than £15m. Surely somebody will take them out.

A grey start gave way to a sunny afternoon that felt pleasant enough. 7.4C high after 3.0C last night. The forecast for the next few days is not so good, being grey, cold, wet and windy, with possible snow.

[skinny] 07/2/2017 17:02

My SIPP finished up £3.92p

A largely bright day @10°C.

[freddie ferret] 07/2/2017 16:35

I have posted on the DX. thread and am puzzled like everybody else.
I think the mgmt might just be lining this up for a takeover favourable to them.

[aleman] 07/2/2017 15:53

Looked at BP more than once but never bought. BRCI showing unchanged but I see they closed at 89.5/91 and are now 88.5/90.5 so it is down 0.75p. Maybe my monitor is frightened to show me any more losses!

[skinny] 07/2/2017 15:32

A bit like FEVR - I've just watched and never quite got around to buying!

[mrphil] 07/2/2017 15:31

Skinny, see what you mean about BUR, that would have been a good one to have held throughout last year!

[mrphil] 07/2/2017 15:30

Are you no longer holding BP. & BRCI then Aleman if your screen is mostly blue? Must admit mine is other than those three but you wouldn't know it from the overall figure!

Absolutely beautiful out on the water at lunchtime, virtually empty of boats, flat calm and sunshine you could actually say felt warm! Watched the dredger at work in the marina on our return.

[skinny] 07/2/2017 14:57

I've had BUR on my list for ages but haven't got around to buying - up yet again today!

[aleman] 07/2/2017 14:45

My screen is mostly blue. Only one red that says -61%! Why can't we have profit warnings like the US? They all seem to fall 3-6% instead of 30-60%.

[aleman] 07/2/2017 13:22

It's IFS and BUTS but it won't help sentiment.



Lots of minor warnings still flowing in the US but this one jumped out. Big enough company to be significant? Maybe.

[deanforester] 07/2/2017 10:54

+2°C and misty this morning, but the sun has now broken through and dispersed the mist into broken low cloud.

DF

[aleman] 07/2/2017 10:52

And so they should be. The weaker £ and positive spin has brought benefits immediately in terms of new orders but the disadvantages of the rising costs take longer to feed through the system and the spin is getting less positive by the week.

Also, it depends on the definition of profit warnings. Loads of US companies have been modestly reducing guidance so earnings growth there is going to be wound back from expectations of around +6% for Q1 but they are generally not classed as profit warnings. In the UK, it's a bit muddier but I fancy we will follow where the US goes and there are signs we might be doing so.

Commentary is definitely getting less optimistic but it's remarkable that market indices are just ignoring the increasing bad news. We have seen similar before though. Remember "No more boom and bust" and "house prices never go down" before the markets tanked? If Trump tax cuts and Brexit's weak £ only brought benefits, everyonoe would do it. We are about to learn about the downsides of higher inflation and interest rates and how they affect those that had not expected and prepared for them - quickly followed by the extra tax increases needed to fund government when things slow. We only patched that roof when he sun was shining. We should have fixed it.

[mrphil] 07/2/2017 10:07

Aleman, but they do say the number of warnings was lower than the previous year?

[aleman] 07/2/2017 09:40

I hope you have a nice holiday, Skinny. It's the best time to year to go (as you probably know since it is usually more expensive).



Ernst and Young's report is subtitled "The Calm Before the Storm". It notes a steady number of profit warnings despite the benefit of a weaker pound and warns of worse likely to come. I'd say the fall in the £ has simply pushed the storm back a year. Batten down the hatches.

[mrphil] 07/2/2017 09:31

Morning Skinny. Caribbean sounds perfect, and there I am looking forward to my weekend in Cornwall! ;-)

I am just so tempted to double up on DX. as surely things can't get any worse?!

[skinny] 07/2/2017 08:59

Good morning.

Commiserations to fellow DX and BP holders :-(

Off to the Caribbean on Thursday and it can't come quick enough.

[mrphil] 07/2/2017 08:31

I think I would probably have sold at anything above 12p but this level seems a bit crazy. I would normally be tempted to actually top up but I have already built up quite a few more than I originally intended so I'll leave it at that for now!

Individual share part of the SIPP currently sitting at -2.3% on the day, the worst for a long time.

[aleman] 07/2/2017 08:25

Yes. 60% fall seems a bit excessive. I think I'll sit on that and reflect rather than panic sell. Trouble is that it is hard to tell the state o play from the update.

[mrphil] 07/2/2017 08:20

I see BP. & BRCI aren't helping either today. Was already planning lunch on board but I think I may bring that forward and just head South! DX. alone has managed to wipe just over 1% off the total SIPP value this morning.

[mrphil] 07/2/2017 08:09

Surely that's a bit overdone now?

[mrphil] 07/2/2017 08:05

Looks like 8.5p to sell so that's a few bob down the tubes! Can't bring myself to accept that just yet!

[mrphil] 07/2/2017 08:02

Can't sell online anyway!

[mrphil] 07/2/2017 07:53

Probably not worth trying to sell on the open?

[mrphil] 07/2/2017 07:52

I can only assume DX. are not managing to pick up their fair share of deliveries relating to online sales. Where's that crystal ball, should have sold yesterday on the rise!