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[skinny] 25/10/2016 16:59

My SIPP finished up 0.14%.

A grey start with some sun this afternoon @14°C.

[aleman] 25/10/2016 16:56

-0.2%.

Fog eventually gave way to sun but still only managed 10.5C. I think some areas stayed foggy and didn't reach double figures. I presume it is going to cloud over soon since we are already around the 9C low forecasted for tonight.

[skinny] 25/10/2016 09:17

German Ifo Business Climate 110.5 109.6 109.5

[aleman] 25/10/2016 09:17

Welcome back, DF, and good morning all. A foggy start after 3.1C overnight but sun is trying to break through.

GKN says growth is weakening in its major markets. Carpetright says Europe offset its weakening UK market where it has closed a handful of stores due to competitive pressures and variable consumer demand. (LFL -2.9% and might have been worse if closed stores had been included.) It actually says results are on track but all these companies cutting costs and rising import costs will eventually undermine consumer demand. I think this is an accelerating trend from the results I am going through and I don't think the boost to UK manufacturers will counter it. Many of the latter will have a hard time passing on cost increases and see squeezed margins domestically even if exports are stronger. I think the environment has changed in the last couple of months thanks to rising costs. We continue to get profit warnings every day. I think the domination of commodities in the indices is hiding increasing recessionary pressure in the UK that smallcap investors should be watching out for. Can commodities keep rising if US and UK demand is weakening with debt levels far too high to be entering a downturn? This could be the worst recession yet since last time's problems have not been dealt with. Constantly distorting rates lower to make excessive debt cheaper and printing money does not sort out the underlying issues.

[blueliner] 24/10/2016 21:34

A lacklustre -0.18% for the Folio.

Worst value faller was tiddler IHC which fell 4% on just one low ball sell trade.

Highest value riser was CLIG +2.6%.

National Grid fell today because the Lake District NP is to be spared 24 km of 50m tall pylons, a victory for the campaign groups incl Friends of the Lake District which I support. Good PR for the Grid but costly underground.

Welcome back DF .

[aleman] 24/10/2016 17:13

But I keep making the point that the GDP figures aren't worth waiting for. A couple of years ago, they revised GDP figures for several years before the last recession! They are a political plaything full of fiddle factors such as drug dealing and prostitution, with a politically influenced deflator. They might not tell us there is a recession until after it is finished!

Not the best indicator but we went to Bridlington on Sunday and it was dead. I've never seen it so quiet (seen it busier in winter) and yet it's the start of half term week. Fish and chips there were still good, after a few disappointments with favourites elsewhere this year. It was quite pleasant in the sunshine but the NE breeze was chilly as the sun went to bed. Last night we had only 3.4C at home and today was a grey 11.7C that felt a bit cool despite minimal breeze. We're only a few degrees above winter temperatures, now, as October looks very likely to finish cooler than average thanks to persistent Northerlies. Regional news said some Yorkshire tourist attractions have broken records this year thanks to terrorism and the warm summer.

I'm still getting 6-10 tomatoes per day in the warmth of the house but they are very small. They are tasty, though, and some slightly less small ones are in the pipeline. Maybe, I need to water more. Whilst a few of the old bent vines have dried and withered, some new upright shoots are doing well and have new flowers on. We might have a stream of home grown tomatoes until Christmas if it stays sunny enough. I'll need to do a bit of feather pollinating!

[skinny] 24/10/2016 17:01

My SIPP finished down 0.15%.

A very dull day and feeling colder @12°C.

[freddie ferret] 24/10/2016 16:30

We will have to wait for GDP figures.
The CSO now Office for National Statistics I think used to publish a very usefull publication called "Economic Trends" in hard copy. I do not know if it is still produced online, I've had a look with no luck. Basically it was monthly or quarterly updated charts for all aspects of the UK economy.
Again I used to be able to get GDP data flash updates on European economies from their local english language sources, no longer possible sadly. You now have to try to get it from the Eurostat website which is out of date and impossible to navigate.

All very sad and a sign of the times we are in.

[aleman] 24/10/2016 16:11

This one looks a bit recessionary, too, evidencing an autumnal downturn in ad revenue.



The X Factor broadcaster has already said it expects ad revenues to be down around 1% in the first nine months of this year and there are signs the market is worsening. Media buyers have suggested October will be down 8%, while November is expected to be down 7%.

ITV confirmed the 120 job cuts out of its UK workforce of about 3,500.

Read more at hxxp://www.campaignlive.co.uk/article/itv-cuts-120-jobs-post-brexit-slowdown-bites/1413170#j2bL2ci1TDdjR2BZ.99

[freddie ferret] 24/10/2016 15:49

Interesting.

[freddie ferret] 24/10/2016 15:37

Aleman.

You may be right re house prices. Seems the cooling is becoming widespread outside central London.



Also worth noting that PLUS have just produced a trading update and it shows that average spend per customer has fallen (not just the new customer effect).

[aleman] 24/10/2016 12:16

Stronger PMIs in Germany and Japan seem to counter my pessimism.



I used to swear by PMIs but the last recession saw relationships between PMIs and GDP tested quite a bit. That could be more down to GDP than PMI numbers, though.

[aleman] 23/10/2016 11:49

freddie ferret

Re domestic economy, housing apart from central London is roaring away.
Fall in the £ will continue to boost exports.

Housing is far from roaring away. Quite the opposite. Prices ae up a bit but volumes are down sharply on last year. It is volumes that drive the housing-related economy.

Car sales are up but private sales were down in September. They lead the economic cycle so that is another indicator that the economy could be turning down. Fleet follows private usually.



Rising petrol pries eating into consumer income.
Lower borrowing for car and house sales.
Rising corporate profit warnings.
Rumbling banking crisis in Europe looks to be growing.
Other rereferanda in Europe creating more EU break-up uncertainty.
UK CPI on the rise
Upturn getting long in the tooth, albeit a weak one.
Medium and longer term interest rates rising recently - mortgage rates to rise soon?
Falling savings rates
Weaker retail sales in September as prices start to rise.

I admit the jury is out but the economy follows cycles and lots of the usual indicators are suggesting deterioration. We are still losing lots of jobs in oil, engineering and banking. Consumer/retail/lending and property were holding things up but they now look to be weakening and th eprivate sector is losing jobs so the public sector will soon need to follow. All those UK companies issuing profit warnings will cut back on recruitment/capex/investment so job losses should intensify. We might get more manufacturing orders from the weak £ but the consumer side is a much bigger part of the economy and that won't like the prices rises now feeding through.



West Yorkshire house sales volumes down 20-42%, S. Yorkshire down 17-39%, N.Yorkshire down 29-39%: House sales in Yorkshire are down 1/3rd! They fell by 1/2 in 2008 after volumes started falling significantly in H2 2007. The current large falls in volume suggest recession is imminent.







Cumbria house sales volumes down 35-53%. SW London down 34-49%. West Mids down 18-37%.

[mrphil] 21/10/2016 17:38

Thanks Skinny. I am jealous regarding your ride in the Interceptor, I have actually never even been inside one but it's still on my wish list!

[freddie ferret] 21/10/2016 17:18

Aleman.

Do not agree with your post 40730.
We are not going into reccession IMHO.
Number of immigrants entering the country is likely to reduce as the £ falls.
Was 6zlotty to the £, now around 4.8.
Eastern european wage rates will rise as their economies grow on falling populations.
Re domestic economy, housing apart from central London is roaring away.
Fall in the £ will continue to boost exports.
Imports will become more expensive thus people will tend to buy British.
The only dampner is the oil price.

Profits warnings are not a good indicator, realised profits are. Profits warnings tend to be sentiment influenced. Brexit has buzzered sentimen,t but is in the long term fundamentally good for domestic growth particularly if we deregulate which currently seems unlikely with authoritarian May.

[skinny] 21/10/2016 17:05

Enjoy your week MrP.

I remember travelling as a passenger in a 2 wheel drive 7.2 litre Interceptor on the then newly opened M11 - quite frightening!

What time is that on?

Edit - found it.

[mrphil] 21/10/2016 16:56

Not a bad week with the SIPP managing +0.83% taking the YTD to another all time high and +14.28% YTD, the pot edged ahead +0.06% and is now +4.56% YTD and the Virgin ISA climbed +0.98% and is now +4.43% YTD

That's me for a week, I may get a chance to look in but probably won't be posting so I hope you all have a good week and keep things going in the right direction while I am away!

I see one of my favourite childhood cars is featured tonight, the Jensen FF. Then we have Would I Lie to You and Have I Got News For You, and probably record Gardeners world.

Have a good week.

MrP

[skinny] 21/10/2016 16:56

My SIPP finished down 0.07%, +0.76% on the week and is +8.46% YTD.

Enjoy your weekend.

[aleman] 21/10/2016 16:53

+0.4% today. YTD +20.2%.

Quite sunny. 12.8C after 6.9C. It clouded over soon after dark to keep last night's temperature up after threatening to turn cold. It has done that a few days, now. Not complaining.

Have a good weekend, all.

[mrphil] 21/10/2016 16:29

Well we have just had some Corporation Tax back after a backdated R&D claim. Not enough to make a huge difference to their figures, but welcome all the same!

[aleman] 21/10/2016 16:22

Borrowing rose in September because of more spending and weaker tax-take. A weaker tax-take is one of the the things to look for as an early indicator of recession. It wasn't negative yet though, just slightly weaker - so one to watch.

5/7 for me with a lot of guesswork.