Northern Bear Share Discussion Threads

[a2584728] 16/1/2017 12:13

I wonder why one of the directors is selling???

[paqman] 13/1/2017 22:43

Cold. Same as the summer. Plenty of roofing going on. Tough lads up here.

[eggbaconandbubble] 13/1/2017 18:25

How is the weather oop north?

[this_is_me] 05/1/2017 16:13

The benign weather so far compared to last winter should help the numbers this year.

[daz] 05/1/2017 10:13

I put NTBR in the annual stock challenge this year, it has everything going for it in my view, a low P/E, a growing and well covered dividend, a few director buys, a very good looking chart (as interceptor says) and the possibility of a few bolt-on acquistions as debt falls further, which ought to be EPS enhancing.

[interceptor2] 05/1/2017 09:34

A lovely looking chart here showing a very stable advance. And plenty of time to slowly build a decent position here before the next trading update which is normally in June.

[exv] 05/1/2017 09:14

New Year tip somewhere?

[interceptor2] 21/11/2016 14:47

Nice little dip that enabled me to add to my position here. PER by my own estimates is under 5 now, just too cheap even for this sector imo.

And this a company that is likely to be in a net cash position this time next year.

[eggbaconandbubble] 11/11/2016 11:47

So, it's more of the 'same old same old'. lol

[royaloak] 09/11/2016 13:40

Not sure, I was hoping I would be picking some up cheap though first thing this morning after the Trump victory!

[eggbaconandbubble] 09/11/2016 13:27

Are we on a roll at last or the same old same old? Rhetorical question I guess!

[pj 1] 08/11/2016 18:59

Lack of any forecasts doesn't help.

[jaf111] 08/11/2016 18:33

Yes liquidity, or lack of, is a real problem....and the interlinked wide bid offer spread. All very frustrating since the underlying performance very encouraging.

[srichardson8] 08/11/2016 16:52

Yes this is a positive earnings release which clearly states that if H2 is OK one can expect another dividend uplift. OP was £1.2m +15%, PTP 1.21m +22% & NP 0.9m +22% eps 5.2p. Last year (anyway) the second half was virtually a mirror of the first so if that recurred we would see 10p p/s, under 5 p/e. Assuming no corporate action and (say) a 2.5p dividend costing around £425k paid by the interims next year net debt* already down to £2.3m from £4.3mn over the past year might be down again to half that level.
All kinds of things can go wrong and the stock is illiquid but I really like and agree with the piece cited by mathew at 619 above. So I will keep my small holding (that is a result of the poor liquidity) and hope this nice cashflow eventually gives uplift.

[daz] 08/11/2016 11:09

The dividend will probably be 2.25 or 2.5p this year, with the latter easily affordable if they're not worried by a possible downturn, putting the shares on a yield of just over 5%.

The announcement also mentions the possibility of bolt-on acquisitions and now that debt is on track to be eliminated by this time next year, puts the company in a very good position to be a small scale consolidator in the region, which could add meaningfully to EPS and so could be a trigger for a re-rating.

It looks like a safe hold, with possible significant upside but then that's been the case for a while now.

[royaloak] 08/11/2016 09:37

These usually drift after results, the last I bought were at 43p, am quite happy to hold long term, in my opinion better than holding money in the Bank, still the usual problems, the sector, wide spread, etc. I have hope that at some time their real value will be recognised.

[interceptor2] 08/11/2016 09:24

Not guilty as charged :o)

Plenty of time to slowly build holdings to a worthwhile amount between now and next trading update or results.

[this_is_me] 08/11/2016 09:03

You buying 100k shares?!

[interceptor2] 08/11/2016 08:50

Very nice results, increasing revenue and decreasing debt levels is a powerful combination, PER likely to be under 5 now which is too low even for this sector imo. I wonder what will be the catalyst that starts a rerating here?

[this_is_me] 08/11/2016 07:36

Yes it is a well run company and the new divisions show that they are able to grasp opportunities. I hope the weather is not as disastrous for operations this winter as it was last winter. They could be debt free in a years time.

[paqman] 08/11/2016 07:19

Happy with that. Ticking along nicely.

[jaf111] 08/11/2016 07:12

should see some life today following very satisfactory interims.....

Hard to understand just how cheap these shares are

[interceptor2] 04/11/2016 08:17

Signs of life! A buyer at 46p this morning until pushing the offer up to 48p, it doesn't take much.

Interim results were released 27th November last year.

[mathewawood] 03/10/2016 23:33

Here is a link to some analysis on the company I found very useful:

hxxp://expectingvalue.com/shares/northern-bear-not-so-grizzly-now

Eloquently written and much more entertaining then the predictable and boring notes you get from the brokers. Would like to add that with the subsequent benign weather and Director purchases since the piece was written, it makes the investment case even more compelling imo.

[sailing john] 23/9/2016 17:28

Yes - small buys BUT unusual for Directors to be buying the Bear

I added to my already overweight position after the announcement this morning

Market appears to buying low PE high yield at the moment after most/all Central Banks indicate no imminent end to low rates. The Bear obviously fits the bill in this respect.

GL - SJ