Northbridge Industrial S... Share Discussion Threads

[runwaypaul] 03/12/2016 09:27

Looking forward to 2017 and beyond, there have
been some more reassuring announcements from
the oil service majors who form part of our customer
base. They rely more on the activity levels in the oil
fields rather than the oil price itself and they believe
the worst is over and are predicting a return to more
positive levels of business in the future. If this is the
case, we remain well positioned to benefit from the
market upturn as and when it arrives. In the meantime
we will continue to reduce costs and maximise cash
generation whilst competing hard for every opportunity.

[runwaypaul] 03/12/2016 09:24

sept2016

Outlook
Whilst the immediate outlook is still challenging
and we are experiencing further downward pressure
on our sales of manufactured products, which tends
to be a lagging indicator, there are some signs that we
may have reached the bottom of this economic cycle
with regard to the oil and gas industry. Some positive
statements from the oil services majors and planned
drilling campaigns for 2017 give hope that the market
will start to turn soon.
We have already seen some modest geothermal drilling
revenue from New Zealand and a planned increase in
operating rigs in the Middle East. The oil surplus and
the over supply problems facing the industry is beginning
to be resolved and all the oil companies have now cut
costs to the extent that further investment in E&P is
worthwhile, despite the low oil price.
Having maintained the size of our hire fleet, expanded
its geographical reach, reduced our overhead costs
significantly and strengthened our balance sheet, we
are in a very good position to take advantage when the
opportunity of improved trading conditions arises

[runwaypaul] 02/12/2016 15:17

im in


the longer they base the higher to space

[saucepan] 02/12/2016 15:16

I took a position today and am rather surprised to find the board so dormant.

It looks a significant breakout to me. 100p has been an important line in the sand -both on the short term chart and the longer term chart:



My hunch is that the oil services sector is beginning its recovery. LAM, for example, has also started to look perky these past few days.

[countryman5] 07/10/2016 19:49

This is a highly geared recovery / momentum stock. The market tries to look ahead and now likes what it sees. The company has always depreciated stock at a generous rate. Load banks have a long life expectancy.Drilling will eventually resume and many competitors have bitten the dust. Vulnerable to take over.

[topvest] 07/10/2016 19:21

I agree with you. I'm amazed at the price increase here after some truly awful interims. The results were worse than everyone would have thought possible. Hopefully they will survive but it's a long way back from where they are today.

[smithie6] 07/10/2016 12:48

any views from oilies ?

[smithie6] 07/10/2016 12:47

clearly the MD and the mkt dont agree with my last post !

but did the MD buy assuming that price will be X dollars in the future....and will it actually get to where he thinks/hopes ??
.....at least he is on a crazy salary in grey UK (where the co. has no real turnover apart from making load banks) while he waits

(so many countries need oil income so keen to keep pumping rate high...been slowly price rice from 30 to 50$ (Saudis, Russia, Venez, Brasil...)....have to wait to see the future)

Even with oil price rises....there is I think a fair amount of unused capacity which can easily be switched back on (needing to hire nothing from NBI)...without needing to do exploration drilling, after hiring kit from NBI.

[smithie6] 29/9/2016 12:26

surprised by the jump in sp

disastrous results imho

generation of cash is not enough to cover depreciation and replacement of hire fleets....and if results continue like this for too long then the hire fleet will eventually be creaky old stuff that is difficult to rent out, imho

Rubbery reporting.
Fall in debt. In that section it makes no mention that most of debt reduction was due to rescue cash raise , imho done because banks INSISTED !! , recalling the previous mention of breaking covenants...

Claimed TNAV/share.....complete lies imho. The real value of the equipment is much lower, they just havent reported its true value.....the current true value of the oil sector and load bank kit is much lower than reported since claimed value does not consider current market and current renting % etc. Stuff you can not rent out has little real current value, even if you claim that in your accounts. You would get a very low price for it at present if tried to sell it, no buyers and shed loads of unused kit all around the world.

[topvest] 01/8/2016 08:00

Another negative update on the oil and gas sector. Still watching here. If they hadn't bought Tasman no doubt they would be doing much better than they are.

[smithie6] 12/6/2016 22:45

BBC website
Video
Saudi...graduate in oil stuff couldnt get a job in the sector
..finally did I think in Kuwait
Interesting...

If quiet in Saudi one assumes it must be super quiet in Auz

[smithie6] 23/5/2016 10:14

Statoil cancels contract for drilling rig to drill in a Norwegian field

One assumes similar news/effects on drilling in Auz. waters (ie. less due to lower oil price)

[smithie6] 28/4/2016 09:57

North America
Oil & gas
Mkt expects to drill half as many new holes in 2016 vs 2015.


Service sector performing worse in 2016 than expected just a few months before ( always the way imo....humans often only predict what they can imminently see....when get 1 step down there is often another step down rather than reversal, imo; similar to ' bad news always comes in threes' or 'more to come')

Sector profits getting hit in on-going way by negative impacts of operational gearing, ie. impact of fixed costs and lower turnover

[smithie6] 20/4/2016 10:10

...Auz oil sector

Was hit by USA shale coming on line with massive volume
...crash in USA imports & oil supply/demand balance

I understand that USA shale will ramp up if oil price rises to X $/barrel
While Auz offshore oil sector needs Z $/barrel before it starts new exploration drilling again imo. 70$ ? 60$ ?

Even if the oil price rises the industry may wait 6-12 months to see the price stay up before comitting to do new exploration drilling.

My view is that X is lower than Z (X is on shore, Z is offshore, more expensive)...so Auz oil sector aint going anywhere imho since USA shale sector will stop the price getting high enough to make Auz economic for new exploration drilling. Until the shale sector runs down in quantity & USA returns to importing large amounts of oil. When ? 10 years ?
By which time Venez & Brasil may have ramped up their exports since got big reserves but lowish exports.
& if China/Asia drills/pumps the offshore fields they might need less imports.
(Tesla have orders for 300.000 new electric cars. And Chinese bringing out new models ( useful with their polution problems. Will cars globally move to be electric ?)

But noting Im not an 'oily'.

And Saudi has imo borrowed 10bn$.
Russia, Iran, Saudi have financial problems and strong desire to increase pumping rates at slightest chance. Iran wouldnt even go to the reduction meeting.

[androvitch] 19/4/2016 23:18

Just reiterating my previous POV that short term results should not have a bearing on share price, beyond the extent to which they signal long-term potential. This business and competition are all hit by the oil crash, the only question that should concern investors is whether this business will be a survivor and emerge in a stronger position as/if the sector recovers.

[smithie6] 19/4/2016 21:03

(sidestepping the bod blah blah blah (lies imo)

I reckon the cash raise was forced by the banks
and deferred payments due (3.8M pounds over 20167 ?)
and as a result of gearing % being hit by 5M hit o intangibles
and H2 turnover being lower than H1
and covenant problems since middle of 2015
and noting that previous banks bailed out in 2015...so NBI couldnt risk annoying this new one immediately after taking over !)

[smithie6] 19/4/2016 19:38

As I recall

the FD wrote in accounts
" the divi is safe"

the FD then later left for the mess the co. was in (but not his fault imo, MD fault for excessive gearing and high spending going in to oil price crash)

H1 divi increased....since viewed as safe...
and now a rescue cash raise....

New cuts made in H1 2016.
Will H2 see more cuts ?

(imo at 30, 40 or 50dollars/ barrel the Auz oil tool hire sector is probably .... closed !

CONCLUSION
One might say they havent got a clue.
By they I mean Mr E.Hook

Why direct and plan ahead if you can just change your mind every 3 months !
and then do a rescue cash raise to prove you got your managing/directing all wrong !

[topvest] 19/4/2016 18:31

Well yes they got too excited just at the wrong time. At least they look like they will survive. A good recovery prospect, but not quite yet.

[smithie6] 19/4/2016 17:58

Ah, another acquisition that was a bad decision was the acquisition of Crestchic Japan/far east

when not much later

"Revenue from Crestchic's Middle and Far Eastern locations was down 58.2% to £4.4 million (2014: £10.5 million), of which almost all was oil related"

!
----

and yet another one

Tasman NZ "remains profitable in the first
six months of 2015."

no number given so one assumes that it is "just profitable " !!
just after NBI bought it !

---

If your business is just about to see its profitability crash, give NBI a ring, they'll pay you the full price for it ! and you can larf all the way to the bank !

[smithie6] 19/4/2016 17:25

..they sure steamed into the oil price fall at full speed....even accelerating harder with that acquisition & extra equipment purchases....
...mistakes which then hit co. hard..

Blindness due to greed I assume
....phps big option packs can incentivise taking on too much risk
Was it fair that the FD was only one to pay the price ....when surely he wasnt the main decision maker ?,
the experienced sector specialist was the other exec. the MD.

[topvest] 18/4/2016 20:44

Think they have done well to get a fund raise through at 75p though. Not too dilutive. May look to get back in within the next 6m or so.