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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Type | Share ISIN | Share Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northbridge Industrial Services Plc | LSE:NBI | London | Ordinary Share | GB00B0SPFW38 | ORD 10P |
| Price Change | % Change | Share Price | Bid Price | Offer Price | High Price | Low Price | Open Price | Shares Traded | Last Trade | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 0.00% | 198.00 | 196.00 | 200.00 | - | 0.00 | 01:00:00 |
| Industry Sector | Turnover | Profit | EPS - Basic | PE Ratio | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0 | N/A | 0 |
| Date | Subject | Author | Discuss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/5/2015 00:23 | "Stegrego 28 May'15 - 21:39 - 1579 of 1581 0 0 I guess NAV will support the price somewhat but I guess that is only if someone is willing to pay that for them." ...which of course depends to a high degree on 2 year view on occupancy % and margins for rental kit....which for NBI looks to be quite dependant on oil/gas prices and sector drilling activity in Auz/NZ (which most/all of us PIs have no direct daily contact with) if 2 yr view is good then the likely rental profit is high and the equipt. has good value... if 2 yr view is bad then the likely rental profit is much lower and then the equipt. has a much lower value... a bad 3-6 month period can be written off to large degree.... ---- for valuing its quite tricky imo...although at 210p after being at 600p....and a big fleet of kit in different countries etc etc....and some different income sources....it must surely be relatively close to a bottom, no ?...if it went to 160p...50p fall...but most would assume it would get back to 210p at some stage, in an instant if a bit of blue sky appears in an RNS at some time in the future.... around 150-200p one would assume that institutions would be considering to buy with a medium/long term view ?..and hence give some support ?..whereas many PIs are looking only a few months ahead maybe ! | smithie6 | |
| 28/5/2015 22:46 | Smithie, No problem. From your "tone" I could tell you believed me, but you are quite right about some people posting numbers for their own benefit and I should have provided a link to the source with the forecasts in my first post. I don't post very often so I could have been someone who just appeared out of the blue with made up numbers in order to short the stock. | dixies | |
| 28/5/2015 22:30 | Dixies ....I believed the numbers you posted...and the claimed source... ..I just like to include a small disclaimer or warning..occasionall very good of you to go to the trouble to post that info....useful.. I'm just cranking up a basic Excel sheet calc. to see what profit numbers I come up with...by putting different data in....of course the key data is unknown, what will rental and loadbank sales numbers be !...and the actual margin for that... and of course a key question imho are the oil/gas prices in "Auz. dollars"... in 2016 and 2017...answers on a postcard please !! | smithie6 | |
| 28/5/2015 21:39 | I guess NAV will support the price somewhat but I guess that is only if someone is willing to pay that for them. | stegrego | |
| 28/5/2015 21:32 | Book value is £2+ even after write-down's - very rough numbers £1 tangible £1 intangibles. Dividend 6p or so. Will settle down somewhere between £1-2 in my view. There is value here but looks a good few years before we ever get back to £6, if ever. The management team are pretty good and are worth sticking with now. | topvest | |
| 28/5/2015 20:40 | Smithie, I was somewhat surprised at the forecasts and agree it's a shot in the dark at the moment. The information is reliable and can be found at: hxxp://www.lcfresear Just so you know I haven't made the numbers up! I think you might have to register but it's a useful site to obtain forecasts as soon as they come out. You can request e-mail alerts as well. | dixies | |
| 28/5/2015 20:35 | If the earnings prediction is correct, then these cant be worth more than 40p surely?!?! | stegrego | |
| 28/5/2015 20:03 | Pretty amazing that 30p of EPS has disappeared virtually overnight. Will hold the remainder of my shares as think they are fundamentally a sound business and will bounce back. Mistake to only top slice twice when the going was good. Did the same on Pressure Technologies as well. Oh well. The oil price fall has been good overall for my portfolio so can't really complain as I was underweight in oil and gas thankfully. | topvest | |
| 28/5/2015 19:46 | Be interesting to see what the share price does tomorrow.... Imho some buyers today cause attracted by shares being a lot ' cheaper' than yesterday... Tmorrow those buyers might not be there...since bt today. | smithie6 | |
| 28/5/2015 19:40 | Good info Dixie...assuming of course its real...I guess it is.. Wow..only pencilling in 7p in 2017 ! Ive got exposure via one of the big holders...so I hope 7p turns out to be wrong !... ... ..but at the moment ..I wld assume a lot of turbulence in sector....difficult to predict rest of thiS yr never mind 2017.. | smithie6 | |
| 28/5/2015 19:28 | From the company broker's note dated 28th May 2015 Year to: December 2015 2016 2017 EPS 1.1p 4.2p 7.4p P/E 190.9 50.0 28.4 Based on share price of 210p at 28th May 2015 | dixies | |
| 28/5/2015 18:51 | Greeting Sanks. Nice to see you here. If you turn up then I know the bottom is in. I hope you are more accurate with this than you have been in the past with your other predictions of doom and gloom. I have cash waiting you know. | lord gnome | |
| 28/5/2015 18:20 | I sat down with my bird last night..we had some tea and chocolate bourbons...and pulled out our Panasonic Scientific Calculator to do some sums... ....my bird suggests this is now one way traffic to below £1..more closer to 61p Is it then fair to say my buy target of 38p..42p and 57p respectively..is a fair shaggers entry point. Sensible comments appreciated Sanksalot | sanks | |
| 28/5/2015 16:09 | ...imho they kept capex and gearing highish because ...in part....imho...the MD had 650k share options....(now 700k options) To maintain the highish p/e and share price they had no choice....lower capex..lower eps growth...lower p/e...lower share price.(although the share price would not imo have fallen as far as this if had cut capex in H2 and either avoided the Tasman NZ acquisition or paid in shares at that high price or included a large deferred part (to protect vs oil/gas price fall, which was well underway then)..the dirs. decided against it...we see the result of that decision... If it had worked out ( oil/gas bounced straight back to 100$ (unlikely due to flood arriving from USA fracking wells) no slow down in the sector) the capex would have worked out nicely and the EPS would have stayed high and increased and we would all be claiming the dirs as hereos !.... Institutions...you voted for it...you have paid a high price for dangling too big a carrot in front of the MD ..imho...phps couldnt see the road ahead due to the size of the carrot ! ...although the share price would have been hammered anyway due to the problems in the sector...but the share price would be perhaps 300p if the debt level was closer to 10M and not close to 20M, which is not so good when cash generation has been hit hard....the "real" number of years to reduce the debt to zero or small amount (say < 1yr of cashflow) we have to wait to see... | smithie6 | |
| 28/5/2015 16:03 | If 17M debt is correct...need to check....out for lunch at the mo !... Then over 3 periods of 6 months that is 6 M ...and that is same as in 2014...but business has dived...so imho I see it as impossible....or unlikely.. If sell all the assets....Im not very interested in that when looking at on going numbers...need kit in order to get rental income now or in future.... Capex ...high in recent yrs...to then sell that kit at 1/3rd or 1/4tr of its cost price just 1-3 yrs later would not be good business imo --- They say warnings come in threes....how business will be in 6, 12, 18 months..we dont know....could better, same or worse. | smithie6 | |
| 28/5/2015 14:45 | A bit simplistic assumption but if they have approx £17m debt and they aim to be ungeared by end of 2016 that means they will aim to generate approx £8m cshflow this year and next maybe more heavily weihgted towards next year. Of course this could be because of asset sales rather than cahsflow generation. This reminds a bit of capital drilling where they decided to cut costs to a maximum in order to generate cashflow and degear their balance sheet. Until recently investors seem to have high regard for management at least strategy going forward seems to be concentrate on core and cut costs so hopefully they will be capable of focussing on that and not be distracted by acquisitions etc.. | sebass | |
| 28/5/2015 12:53 | yep the Tasman NZ aquisition turned out to be very badly....when the oil price had already fallen a fair amount and showed no sign of changing... "A further two deferred cash payments of NZ$4.5 million (GBP2.25 million) each will be made in January 2015 and January 2016. " not going to help the NBI cash situation.....part of reason they are selling 'stuff' I would assume...(but of course with oil/gas services sector being in a bad way.....its a terrible time to sell any hire equipt in that sector) the bank debt situation is not pretty....high wrt the cap. value... (I do not believe they can be non-geared by end of 2016....based on H1 being loss making for example...(with 2 years like 2014 then they could do it....but they dont have that))...clearly the institutions will concerned about gearing and debt...so they are trying to make nice noises imo...) They made an obvious mistake imho by ignoring the falling oil/gas prices...for months...but at least they have realised in recent months and been acting.....but waiting till you see results in the till before acting is not good... | smithie6 | |
| 28/5/2015 10:58 | (btw I think trade is worse than appears ... 'cause they have even sold air compression stuff in UK... and had that since the dawn of time almost....close to when listed... so imho getting rid of as many bits as possible...and one assumes the staff as well....in order to generate some cash and reduce op. costs....to minimise risk from the debt...(and new debt details revealed, a -ve sign imo) with lay off costs etc etc...and the scramble to reduce debt....one assumes that the 1M cost of the divi could well be 'avoided' this year.. | smithie6 | |
| 28/5/2015 10:29 | with the fun and games at Tungsten and Plus 500 recently....and NBI share price collapse from 600p to 220p now.... its a risky world out there on AIM ! | smithie6 | |
| 28/5/2015 10:21 | Woody ...interested to read your post...some good pts... clients merging.....shows how bad the situation is in auz oil sector....(I would guess that if small/medium size cos. merge...then they can pool their own equipment...and hence hire less and if any other hire cos. are on their knees perhaps they are/were/will be bought by oil/gas cos. with cash...and again less need to hire equipment from outside the oil/gas co.. H1 said to report a loss.... last year made around 16p in H2 (plus/minus Xp !) but business now much quieter and loss in H1..so maybe 0-8p in H2... so...imho if say that H1 loss is small then one gets a guesstimate number imo of 0-8p for profit...versus 30p ish in 2014, depending on adjustments etc. a crash... 2) 'Battening down the hatches' shows how bad things are can one assume it would pick up from that ....or just continue ??! if continues then PAT could be close to 0 for yrs....unless....pic 3) The addition of 'part' of the load bank rental to the 'problems' list is a surprise which I hadnt envisaged... 4) As you pointed out X months ago...(as we knew) ..rental cos. accounts get nailled in PAT line if dont generate enough profit to cope with the depreciation hit to the accounts... ..which is a worry at present... 5) How to value the shares ? Good question ! Rental kit does not have much value in a situation of global oil equipment surplus over demand....or can not rent it out...and its depreciation cost makes a big -ve impact on the accounts the hit to confidence in the bod does not help the share price...they appear to have been completely blind to the effect of the oil/gas price falls ...many/some ! of us where perhaps asleep around 600p...but we are not the dirs. and dont have access to advisors or oil/gas specialist or have visibility of fall in enquiries or oil/gas sector daily news in Auz. 6) Capex expenditure in H2 of 2014.....imho stupid mistake with oil price collapsing....I posted that it might turn round to bite them....and it has... | smithie6 | |
| 28/5/2015 09:03 | Pug chairman, md and FD must all be feeling a lot poorer chairman has over 1m shares I think and MD now has 700k options !!..fall from 600p is millions of pounds for them !...real pounds. ! And chairman bt some shares (50k ?) around 5 quid or so.. shows that even ppl with decades in hire sector can mess up their share buys/sells imo... ( although dirs. phps cant sell all their shares...but 30-50% ..they cld morally get away with I think..could have) | smithie6 | |
| 28/5/2015 09:02 | yep guys i guess we all thought it had hit the bottom. I'll not be looking again now unless we see somewhere near £1, seems harsh but it's hard to justify the current share price even after todays drop. Even if they turn a profit this year how much of it will be an operating profit and how much exceptionals from asset sales. I'd hazard a guess we are looking sub 10p at best. And there'll be a very much smaller business too. Added to that there may be further equipment asset write downs affecting the balance sheet, too much uncertainty. The growth potential isn't their either imv. They seem to be suggesting that the consolidation in their clients/suppliers has pushed NBI to the sidelines at the expense of other providers. The only upside i can see is the possibility of them getting bought now they're on their knees, high risk strategy though for an investor and not for me. aimho woody and out!!!............ou No director buying when it dropped an obvious sign i guess | woodcutter | |
| 28/5/2015 08:54 | Options. Will dirs. option prices just be reduced to low mkt price at some ? Happens a lot ( should be illegal imo...only change option prices if new options to new dirs. imho ) ..nbi is owned by institutions so maybe they wont allow that... | smithie6 |
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