Northbridge Industrial S... Share Discussion Threads

[alter ego] 20/9/2014 16:22

from the earlier RNS
"Northbridge, the industrial services and rental company today issues the following pre-close trading statement in advance of its interim results for the six months ending 30 June 2014 which will be announced on 25 September 2014.

As indicated on 29 May at the time of our AGM, Northbridge has achieved a good start to 2014 in both its sales and rental activities. The ongoing investment in our global hire fleet has resulted in good rental revenue and strong cash flow and will enable net gearing to reduce by the end of 2014. A high level of sales orders for manufactured units provide good visibility for the second half of 2014 and with the two acquisitions completed last year now fully integrated and performing as expected we remain confident in the Group's prospects and committed to our stated strategy.

We expect results for 2014 as a whole to be in line with management's expectations."

[smithie6] 20/9/2014 16:11

..so....is it results later this week ?

[smithie6] 18/9/2014 19:33

they already have USA exposure...an agent and direct sales themselves

...personally I am not so sure they need more....noting that most of co. presence is now Asia and Middle East.....long way to move any spare kit to USA from those regions..

but USA shale and fracking is busy....so you might end up being right....
bod have a good % record with strategy decisions so far....high chance that will continue imo

[countryman5] 18/9/2014 15:40

NBI needs US exposure, working with Ashtead would be a way forward.

[smithie6] 03/9/2014 08:07

from AHT brd.
"been talk for a while of SDY off loading their Middle East operation"

if so...then they would have asked NBI....but whether interested or not I dont know

AHT doing well....NBI doing something more in USA is also a possibility, perhaps
...but expansion has previously been in Middle East and Asia...so perhaps NBI prefers those regions...

Various possibilities for news from NBI with H1 results or perhaps in H2.

"Exceed expectations" from Ashtead.....such news is a possibility from NBI...but perhaps during H2.
and/or...the NBI EPS expectation is already a good % increase from prior year....so perhaps difficult to exceed that increase by enough to warrant a disclosure

[smithie6] 03/9/2014 08:04

Woody
posts on AHT msg brd are worth reading...

one chap bt...and sold at 3p in 2001...

now the share price is around 10 quid !

and I am sure that along the way the chart said sell !
but best thing to have done...in that case...was to just hold...and wait...

sure....shed loads of losing shares on AIM as well....so it is difficult...

[smithie6] 03/9/2014 07:43

Ashtead still on a roll

Q1 EPS up 36%....due to turnover increase...

and previous yr was up a similar %

with compounding that is real growth....


NBI also compounding its growth...

[smithie6] 02/9/2014 09:32

Auz
one house of parlament has voted to remove 30% mining tax...I understand...
and other hs. expected to also vote yes.

NBI is more oil/gas...but it is +ve news for hire sector generally in Auz. imo

AND
if remove for mining...then perhaps also for oil/gas sector ??...or a reduction of tax in oil/gas sector ?

imho ...overall it is positive news imo

(NBI is adaptable....if mining sector were to grow a lot...then NBI has the financial flexibility at present to expand quickly in that sector if it wanted to
....but recalling that NBI had one large project in the past for mining sector...which went badly...project did not go ahead...receivables written off and equipt sold I think, was it with Zincox..so they may prefer to avoid)

fulltimeinvestors
punto com !

[smithie6] 01/9/2014 20:40

Woody
Do you have any views on the predicted EPS nos. for NBI for this year and the future...


and your views on that ....long term...compared with the current mkt views on real returns from shares and bonds over the coming years ?

noting the chart for that that @Market_Time has twitted ?


"Global Macro Trading. A chart is worth a thousand words."

(imo the low economic growth increases the value of NBI shares (which have had a history of producing growth and expected to continue....over time...)

chart
pic.twitter.com/FoEISnxPbT

which is apparently from Ray Dalio at Bridgewater


Smithie6
fulltimeinvestors.com

[smithie6] 31/8/2014 15:48

" no one ever went broke taking a profit;-) "

very true...

(while another way to look at that ...is that if took profits of x10 on NEXT then would have missed the X90 that was still to come !!...if I read the 20 year chart for NEXT correctly)

----

Charts...
very useful sometimes...
but...

personally ...for NBI...the numbers are what matters...more than any chart
(previously NBI showed a double top, no...around 250p....so some chartists may say it should have gone down from 250p....well, now it is 600p)

(there will be many profit takers around 600p that paid 250p ish....
and will sell some or all....but new buyers have so far been arriving..
consolidation as APAD mentions..)
----

twiddle our fingers waiting for the results !...around 3 weeks to go..

======

off thread
cut

[woodcutter] 29/8/2014 16:19

It could be and as always with TA it can be wrong but from my experiences price divergences are usually pretty telling in their outcome.

We'll see, no one ever went broke taking a profit;-)

woody

[apad] 29/8/2014 14:08

.....or it could be a long period of consolidation (as in July & Aug.) followed by a step up, Woody?
apad

[woodcutter] 29/8/2014 13:45

Some further TA thoughts on why i sold

NMX 2750 the industrial engineering index is trending down.
There's a potential reversal signal currently developing and round numbers like 600p can be a potential resistance.
There is a strong negative divergence between price and RSI/MACD (green lines) This signal has been in place for a while but is now more pronounced.
It appears there's potential support a 550p, if it gets there i'll revisit.

aimho woody


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[smithie6] 27/8/2014 11:39

Woody
..so cash generation this year (before depreciation which is
not
a
cash cost)
should be around 12-13M (or more) (11M last year)

if NBI invests that in more fleet then it is a large % increase
in
fleet size.....
giving the chance to growth turnover and EPS in 2015
or part fleet and part acquisitions

and just by re-investing cash generated without paying down any
debt then the gearing also comes down

it is a real growth story....with imo a lot further to go...

(I had a look at Petrofac..also does oil/gas stuff..different
services....been going for 33 yrs....18000 employees now...

takes time to grow.....
------

nett book value of the hire fleet went up 30% last year...ref.
accounts at front...from 27M to 36M at "cost" ...(note
depreciation)

and around the same this year imo (they have NO CHOICE but to
expand.....the only other choice is to stock pile cash
generated
or
pay down debt....disaster for EPS growth (and the MDs job !) so
wont happen unless nothing beneficial to spend cash on)

---

Hire revenue
2012. 18M. 2013. 22M
I estimate 28M for 2014 (26-29)

...if they can step and repeat using the cash generated...then
the
growth prospects are very tasty !..which is why imo Investec
have
bt. is it 600k shares over last 9 months.
----

if able to step and repeat in 2015 then 26-29M hire revenue
can/could be 6-9M higher..say 35M
---

imo in 2013 the co. made changes to increase the utilisation %
rates of the hire assets...
imo the EPS numbers for 2014 could (imho will) "impress the
market".....moving the P/E up even higher. Really ? Yes that is
mho.

on 25th Sept. we will found out the reality ..for H1 at least

----

Worth noting imo that in 2012 NBI was imo a group of
independent
companies in different parts of the world.....that difficult to
see
the benefits of being "together"....since then we have seen the
group function....transformers being bt. as part of acquisition
in
Europe suddenly on rental in the middle east by a diff. co in
the
group...and transformers out to Asian operations...
the strategy was solid AND the MD has applied it....not always
the
case at all cos....(EPS increasing as result)

imo forget the price rise to here and look 3 or 5 years
ahead....
while keeping another eye on the different risk things listed
in
the risks part of the accounts in case any of them start
looming

imho.....and as a keen fan of NBI and with a large exposure to
it
!....this is one of the best shares listed in UK.....(some IT
or
other stocks may in reality produce higher growth over coming
years
but with stratospheric share prices to buy them and hence with
a
much higher
risk of a shareholder losing money)

[smithie6] 26/8/2014 15:54

Woody
btw
in amongst numerous posts...
you might see my calc. of P/E using my estimated EPS for 2015
only around 15

not expensive imo....in fact cheap if NBI manages to achieve that
EPS estimate of 39p in 2015....(only 16 months away to end of 2015
fin. year...nothing)
...and if it were to take 1 more yr to achieve that EPS...no
problem...NBI has a track record of growth...I think the odds are
in favour of it continuing to grow...although there might be bumps
along the way...

and in 10 yrs time ? (sp went X 6 in the 8 yrs since listing at
100p)

[smithie6] 26/8/2014 14:07

in any case...
imho...!
the Artemis RNS has an error in it...

they havent imo in fact crossed the 12% value as the RNS states !!

(they have imo crossed down thru the 13% value !...not 12%...they declare that they still have 12.87% after selling some...so ...gone down thru 13% not 12%)
If I am right then perhaps we will see a corrected RNS withing the next few days !

(these city types called Nigel....with their modern history or philosophy degrees...
many of them cant seem to even add up !)
----

If any financial companies/funds/big fish out there are looking for advisers/consultants/assistants....
...send me an e-mail !
via website

fulltimeinvestors.com

[smithie6] 26/8/2014 14:04

btw
Artemis sale RNS reports that 40k shares sold....they still have way over 2M.....
sold tiny % of their holding....
so they are not imo bailing out...

they have been a holder for a few years...made good profits....

[smithie6] 26/8/2014 14:01

Woody.
(CHRT.....in case of interest...my opinion is same as before...
defence sector....not good imo...get 1 delayed big order and whack, a big haircut !
and MCL acquisition looks relatively small compared to CHRT....so I cant see that it can make much of an impact to the share price ...even if MCL were to do well...imho...
and ...2 BAE Systems dirs. have sold BAE shares recently...not a buy signal for defence sector imo...)
---

NBI
Did you take a look at my compounding calculations that I posted ....via a link ?

(NBI. perhaps the best performing listed share since 2006 ?
floated with cap. value around 7M..to buy loadbank company..with very little turnover at that time
now in 2013-4 it pays around 1M in divi !...and has staff costs around 7-8M !

the growth story is not over imo.

[smithie6] 26/8/2014 13:54

had a quick look at Ashtead results...

turnover up 24% while adj. EPS up around 50%...
shows the operational gearing of AHT.
NBI is as well to an extent....but less than AHT imo due to the differences between their types of business

[woodcutter] 26/8/2014 13:31

seems artemis have sold a few

CHRT i've bought a few based on the MCL acquisition, drones could be big business?

They're very niche me thinks! and small equals flexible in that sector aimho.

WC

[smithie6] 25/8/2014 21:24

"but it's no longer cheap"

agree on that one....it was at 250p at start of 2013....
be interesting to see what the share price does between now and H1 results on 25th Sept.
between 550-650p seems a reasonable guess
and of course afterwards depends on the results.....as to what growth and hence P/E is likely...and then hopefully news with the results or in H2 as to what the co. is investing the large cashflow into...an acquisitn. or 2 is possible/likely in H2 imo (2013, issued in 2014, accounts say they were looking at acquisitions..so wouldnt be a surprise)
----

(Western looks set for a whoosh...surely
Athelney is similar in some ways...and trades at I think 90-100% of NAV while Western is around ...well ...55.8 % of NAV !!
the difference between the 2 doesnt make sense imo
and for 62p for 1 Western share you get 62p in NBI shares and the other 50-60p of stuff for free...wont last for long imo)

[topvest] 25/8/2014 20:44

I'm not saying its overvalued, but it's no longer cheap. Just my style of portfolio diversification, given I also own a chunk of WSE and it's clearly not worth selling those!

[smithie6] 25/8/2014 19:55

...I dont think the rating is that high if you first remove the nett tangible assets ..around 160p at the moment...increasing to 190p at end yr end...
and imo perhaps an EPS of 39p at end of 2015 (or more)...only 16 months away to end of 2015 fin. yr. (noting that they have said that they expect to meet expectations in 2014....and a chance in H2 of a "will exceed" RNS)

chart shows a big % price since 250 in Jan 2013...but that was a crazy/wrong price. P/E less than 10...even I thought so and bt. !

(gearing was around 31% at end of 2013....and no acquisitions since...
so..the cashflow will I assume have reduced that gearing during H1
so..a high chance of an acquisition before the end of this fin. year imo.....
or to have been buying more new hire equipt.
(they have no choice but to expand if they want to keep the EPS growth going...as they have been ..especially over last few years...))

and they have a lot of headroom with borrowing if they want to use it...noting that they also now have a wider and more varied range of income now....so lower risk for supporting higher debt costs...while being careful not to go crazy...

[topvest] 25/8/2014 18:25

I'm only suggesting a prudent top slice. I try and top slice on a yield of 1% as clearly they have a reasonably punchy racing. If the Marshalls had top sliced MWB and Sanctuary their investment record would have been much better!