|I hope that someone from the Board is meeting the Namibian president on his visit to the UK:
|Great post steve! Ive turned my self off with NRRP of late, however I still have my full holding from many purchases all the way down. Not got a bad average if this gets moving...
who knows, this delay may benefit us shareholders, as zinc continues to rocket!
|Again this is a potential money spinner for newer observers, NRRP is in a great position bearing in mind Steve's description of NR not being objected too in principle to get the licence. The news about ZINC and its general interest should attract people to this board and this company.
Christ we need that settlement over NEEEF or just get the licence in principle agreed or something. Jeez !
DYOR. The share price and number of shares is abysmal on delays.
|As the wait for a licence goes on and on, the price of zinc continues to go ballistic. As I write this, it’s currently around $2,710 per tonne.
The economics of the DFS were based on
a) A Sterling to Dollar exchange rate of 1.60 (bearing in mind that earnings would be mostly in US Dollars), which is now around 1.25, and
b) A zinc price of $2,400 per tonne. Based on the current exchange rate, today’s price of $2,710 is in effect equivalent to around $3,300 per tonne at a currency conversion rate of 1.60. I don’t need to explain what an increase in zinc price of 35-40% would do to profit margins (the word “orbit” springs to mind).
All the more reason to ask what the hell is going on here. Without naming individuals, I know from my own enquiries that certain people in high places have spoken to the Government of Namibia specifically about NRRP, indicating that this is NOT the way to attract foreign investment.
With the award of a mining licence, the company would be an absolute “no brainer” of an investment at this miniscule valuation. It seems to have become a bet (with fairly decent upside) on whether the company can trim its costs and hold out long enough to get a licence before the money runs out and another cash raise is required, which is not really feasible at the current market price.
It’s now 10 months since we were told that our application had been accepted in principle (while numerous others were rejected) but the whole NEEEF scenario has been another kick in the teeth. 3 months ago the company stated that it had appointed a couple of (black) Namibians to the board of the holding company to try to help “unlock the application process”. They really ought to be able to come to some kind of mutually beneficial agreement without having to wait for the implementation of new laws in Namibia.
All I want for Christmas is...|
|From Imperial Minerals PLC's annual results for year ended 30 June 2016:
"Imperial also holds a small interest in AIM-listed North River Resources (NRR). NRR remains focused on re-opening its Namib lead-zinc mine in Namibia. NRR’s greatest short-term value driver remains the securing of a long-awaited mining licence for the Namib project."
It's from the shortened version, there may be more in the full version when its published.|
Point one thanks, Point two no I am skint thanks to this investments turn for the worst since the heady heights of 0.99pence old money. On two occasions I had 50-75%gains of several thousands & didnt take it, since then I sat on my hands as deadlines came & went. No matter how good a prospective investment Rule No 1 is always to take a profit or certainly set a stop loss ! >:o(
To think we were admonishing various who sold in the early days between 0.50pence to 0.70pence. I think I wish I had done that as well. Meaning all those that dumped the stock long ago made decent monies from 0.30pence climb on the back of French's turnaround & all those that kept faith have been Shat on from a great height !
|My concern is that the Ministry may be delaying the issuance of new licences until the NEEEF bill is passed & who knows when that will happen.
In the absence of any information from the company on the subject - the most recent of its promised "quarterly" conference call was over 4 months ago & the interim results didn't add anything - all we can do is guess at what's happening.|
|YT, I will give you this, you called the turn around in the Zinc price very well.
I hope you were long Zinc over the last six months, because it would be a shame that you have been right BUT the share price here is at an all time low and pretty consistently falling.|
|Good summary, YT. To add to that:
The licence award (which is clearly a race against time, to avoid diluting shareholders out of existence) and the subsequent funding options are obviously the two key issues.
The market currently values the entire company at about £2 million.
Funding to reach production will require around £20-25 million.
Based on current metal prices and currency exchange rates, the company should then be making at the very least £20 million (NOT Dollars) of clear profit PER YEAR.
We need to be updated on resources and reserves at some stage but we know (from 2 years ago) that the actual reserves were equivalent to a mine life of 3.5 years and the resources that needed infill drilling (assuming that was achievable) to convert them to reserves, would take the total mine life up to 5 years.
On top of that we have whatever resources/reserves they have come up with from drilling operations carried out during the last 2 years. During that period, some seriously high grade materials have been reported in RNS announcements so it will be interesting to see how the resource figures develop.
On the funding aspect, the project obviously couldn’t be funded by raising equity at the current share price but on announcement of a licence the share price ought to be at least 0.20p in pre-consolidation terms, ie 50p in “current money”. Although that is several times the current (ridiculously low) valuation, it needs to be put into context. In “old money”, over the years the share price of the company has fallen from around 12p to the current 0.03p (a 400-fold drop) so roughly a 6-fold increase (in going from last chance saloon to the very real prospect of a producing, profit making mine) really should not be too much to ask.
At a share price of 0.20p (old money) / 50p (new money) the total number of shares would roughly need to double in order to fund 50% of the project costs through share-based equity. With the company and Greenstone’s knowledge and connections, they ought to be able to fund at least 50% by other means such as loans or off-take deals, based on the favourable project economics and the unusually short pay-back time.|
|If the movement on NEEEF 25% is speeded up or at least reaches conclusion in a reasonable timescale. The licence award and acceptance of the conditions would make this one of the AIM turnaround stocks of the year in my view.
Obviously there are some big Ifs, but I am thinking of anyone who is NEW looking into the trials and tribulations of this company and also looking at the upturn in fortunes for ZINC. This is well worth sticking on the watch list.
New observers I can tell you no-one is putting anymore money in at the moment of those people that are just about shot of confidence of this apparent Turkey.
However as I say for those newer non widows and orphans looking to play AIM.
1. Large investor picked this company first out of 300 possibles.
2. Poor Share Price is down to non awardence of licence on political issues.
3. Namibia have not said they will not award it but they are introducing NEEEF.
4. As Steve says the excellent ROR is based on ZINC $2400 it is over $2500.
5. As ZINC observers will know it is predicted to be THE metal 2017-2022.
6. There is more resource predicted throughout life of mine. LEAD ZINC SILVER
Negatives are the amount of shares in the hands of Greenstone and the current share price which impinges in the short term on financing.
The lack of a licence so far as political risk impacts with the current government deciding to take a kind of socialist, take a percentage from the private sector, type approach to FDI.
We have just heard rumours from the govt that they are getting it at the Namibian investment conference and that excessive demands could be reined in !
Therefore it is looking more likely that conditions can be met so that the licence proposal can be accepted and we can get on with building what would on the surface being a very profitable mine !
Licence award should see a rapid increase here of this VERY low price ? DYOR
|What a crazy situation. As we approach 2 years and 7 months since the licence application, continue to hear nothing from the company or the Ministry of Mines, and investors continue to sell their shares for next to nothing, the zinc price is on steroids at around $2,585 per tonne (and rising), compared to the $2,400 assumed in the DFS, and even lead is rapidly catching up.
The fall in the Sterling/Dollar ratio from 1.60 to 1.25 gives a further boost of more than 20% to the economics of the project, which were already considered fairly compelling at the time of the DFS.
It will be a farce of epic proportions if we end up losing everything here.|
|Here we go :
THE provision in the New Equitable Economic Empowerment Framework draft bill which will have white businesses sell a mandatory 25% shares to black people can be reconsidered.
This was the view of the chairperson of the Law Reform and Development Commission, Yvonne Dausab. She said this during a plenary discussion at the Invest In Namibia conference, which ended in Windhoek yesterday.
That provision has been criticised and caused fear amongst most white-owned businesses in the country, despite President Hage Geingob's persistent attempts to have white people understand it and share their wealth.
“Neeef is being reviewed. If there are any issues or conflict, there is always room for improvement, but I think the issues that have been raised are being considered,” she noted. Dausab, who doubles as presidential adviser, said the issues have been raised particularly around the 25%, and these concerns have been looked at. “Probably there are discussions on reconsidering how that provision would look like”.
Asked whether the laws in Namibia is investor-friendly, Dausab said Namibian laws are there to create a mutually beneficial relationship between an investor and the public.
“We do everything to ensure that we accommodate our investors, but we must also make sure that we don't prejudice our people. There has to be a balance,” she stated.
She added that the Public Procurement Act of 2015 has a number of provisions which address issues that empower Namibians and also make it easy for investors to come in and participate in the economy.
According to her, the Namibia Investment Act also comes on the heels of the Neeef bill.
When asked whether the provision of Neeef's 25% has been fully understood, Habu Gerbers, a partner at law firm Engling, Stritter and Partners, said there has been a lot of criticism around that.
“More specifically so regarding trading. The second question that came out during consultations was the issue of financing, which is whether there is finance available in the country that would be required to make it work,” he said.
On the issue of tax, Stephen Hugo of PriceWaterhouseCoopers said tax does have a major impact on doing business.
He said one of the underlying factors for doing business included in the World Bank Index is paying taxes.
Hugo said Namibia this year ranked 93rd in the world in terms of paying taxes.
“We need to reflect on some of those things, and see if the Ministry of Finance has done anything to address that. I think one of the biggest delays is the manual paper filing, but government is now moving towards digitalising the process,” he said.Hugo also noted that government is setting up a revenue agency, while the large taxpayers' office was established and is already operational.
Allisson Hishekwa, the director of citizenship and passports in the home affairs ministry, spoke about the ease in which investors can come into the country.
He said the Immigration Control Act of 1993 makes provision for investors to come and apply, and through the right processes get approval to set up a business and operate in Namibia.
Carlos Lopes, the former executive secretary of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, said Namibia is a great place to invest.
“You have a stable government, the rule of law and mentioned that contracts can be enforced. You have a sophisticated and sound financial sector, and free enterprise. But above all, you welcome foreign investment,” he said.|
|GOOD NEWS ?
According to my Googling for news on NEEEF amongst Namibian newspapers there appears to be the following headline in the 9th November edition of THE NAMIBIAN :
"25% NEEEF CLAUSE RETHINK"
Of course this could mean changes along the lines of who is allowed to buy the shares and who can own them. Looking for details. Some have complained that only rich Namibians can buy them, so need to find actual comments.
Im just attempting to Zero in on the actual article and having a little trouble other than the JPEG image of the front page of the newspaper.
Just trying to google the headline now !
|From 'The Namibian' website reporting on President Geingob's comments at the Swapo party policy conference hxxp://www.namibian.com.na/47437/read/NEEEF-is-a-Swapo-policy-%E2%80%93-Geingob
Noting that Namibia has entered a number of agreements with operators who are currently exploiting some of the country's resources, Geingob said there should be debate on how the natural resources should be exploited in a manner that will bring the most benefits to Namibia.
Namibia, he added, cannot be bound forever by contracts that are in favour of investors at the expense of the majority of Namibians|
|Just been looking at the ministry of mines and energy Namibia Facebook site and noticed that the invest in Namibia conference 2016 will take place on the 8th and 9th of November It does annoy you when you listen to the You tube speech in how they want to promote local jobs etc... I wonder if anyone from Nrrp will be present ??|
|Meanwhile Prices of the metals we applied two & half years ago to Mine ! (Eyes Roll)
ZINC $2335.5 Top Metal projected higher.
LEAD $2054.3 Up recently in last few months.
SILVER $17.72 per ounce. Disappointing, Some people think manipulated at highest lvl.
Project Economics good. NEEEF potentially unreconcilable alas ?
|OCT 14 : Comment on NEEEF : hxxps://www.newera.com.na/2016/10/14/neeef-could-reverse-gains-of-reconciliation/
Albeit with very good intentions, the current Namibia Equitable Economic Empowerment Framework (NEEEF) is unconstitutional, historically badly timed, highly dangerous and could further potentially reverse the hard won policy on national reconciliation of the Namibian government.
The reality on the ground is that the current generation on both sides of the political and economic divide unfortunately still don’t see eye to eye, hence the strong resistance on NEEEF.
NEEEF in its current form is – in my humble and honest opinion – being pitched to the wrong generation at the wrong time in our history and by the wrong generation. With that said, government still has exceptional economic power at its disposal to directly empower the previously disadvantaged if it so sincerely desires – without the introduction of an initiative, such as NEEEF.
It is simply a matter of choice for government, which unfortunately has not fully exercised hence the introduction of initiatives such as NEEEF.
The following historic fundamentals are very important to take into consideration so as to understand why NEEEF is unconstitutional, badly timed and highly dangerous:
1) So much brutality and cruelty transpired during our dark national past to such an extent that there is an ingrained or inbuilt historic hatred that still exists, leading to a mistrust of intent between beneficiaries of the previous dispensation and the current indigenous population;
2) The previous dispensation – as a result of the war for national liberation – lost the political power it once fully had and now feels there is an intrusion through NEEEF by those that are in power to take a quarter of what they constitutionally own and control. This they will resist with all available means;
3) That Namibia, after successfully emerging from over 200 years of brutal colonisation, needs to tread carefully with its intended economic empowerment policies that directly affect the economic survival base of the same dispensation that was previously in control. The wounds of the past are still fresh to all concerned minds and hearts that it will unfortunately take a very long time for them to heal. The policy of national reconciliation is sadly not yet fully embraced by all parties, resulting in society a divided on economic lines, whereby the minority significantly controls the economic base of the country, whilst the majority languish in poverty and destitution;
4) The sad reality that complicates things further is that one can forgive, but never ever forget and that is just how things will unfortunately be for Namibia. Please note that whites don’t attend or see the significance of certain political events in Namibia;
5) That the policy of national reconciliation is simply a political peace buffer between the two set of groups that is constitutionally protecting the willing-seller, willing-buyer policy, as well as the right to property (inclusive of businesses). Now, in the context of our brutal history, who in his or her right mind will simply transfer economic power without a struggle?
Taking into account the abovementioned fundamentals, Namibia is still technically at war with itself and by itself, such that the second phase of the struggle needs to be strategically and successfully waged, but by a new generation of patriotic warriors, whose aim is for both whites and blacks to truly live side by side harmoniously, economically and politically.
However, this will take a very long time to achieve.
Therefore, government’s good intentions to strategically maintain future peace and harmony in the land of the brave through the direct economic empowerment and redistribution of wealth through the smart business ownership (75/25 percent for previously advantaged and previously disadvantaged, respectively) of successful white-owned companies will in the above context face strong resistance from the previously advantaged business community.
One notable example that is still, however, a significant challenge for government and that affects our daily lives is the very sensitive issue of land redistribution. It is common sense that if you do not have land you don’t have anything to hold onto and failing to even solve this critical issue for the benefit of the masses will lead to subsequent failures in other attempts to redress society’s other problems, which are initricately linked.
Who has the land? It is the same people that the political power was taken away from.
It is important to note that land is a critical factor of production, which forms part and parcel as collateral of any successful business. To give away 25 percent of that can indirectly equate to giving away that portion to the previously disadvantaged. That’s not going to happen so easily.
Hence, I think that our leaders are not reading the times and situation correctly and are failing to get the message that historically and politically the beneficiaries of the previous dispensation have still not made peace with the fact that things have changed and, as such, there is no way they will accept that what they can currently and fully control (economic power) now has to suddenly be shared by the same people that they once colonised.
In conclusion, the timing and introduction of NEEEF under the above context is extremely premature and highly dangerous. To unravel more than 200 years of white political and economic domination without due regard to the dynamics of our history is rather shortsighted, to say the least.
It is going to realistically take a very long period – at least 30 to 50 or more years – to reach an equilibrium, whereby whites and blacks can truly sit at the same table and work as equal citizens for the greater benefit of the country.
* Pendapala Hangala is a socio-economic commentator and entrepreneur. email@example.com|
|Oct 21 2016 :
Government is relentless in its push for the New Equitable Economic Empowerment Framework (NEEEF).
Not even the warnings by various global rating agencies, such as Fitch, have changed government’s position on NEEEF, whose highlight is the call that – blatantly put – white businesses set up after the adoption of this policy would be required to avail 25 percent equities to people from the previously racially disadvantaged.
Essentially, NEEEF wants more blacks in the mainstream economy and this would be done by making sure the whites – inherent beneficiaries of the apartheid regime, largely by design – share their wealth with fellow citizens.
The status quo cannot remain, government argues. Pressed on the subject the other day in America where he was addressing a public lecture, President Hage Geingob pulled no punches on the subject.
“In Namibia we have experienced sustained economic growth but no job creation,” he told an active University of Columbia audience.
“This scenario will not help transform the lives of our people. Only if we are able to create jobs can we be able to transform our economies and the lives of our people simultaneously.̶1;
“We therefore cannot continue to entertain situations in which those with wealth are only interested in protecting what they have acquired. One cannot enjoy life while your brother or sister is starving,” he said.
NEEEF has stirred pandemonium among the country’s white business community.
Some whites even believe there is a clandestine attempt to push them out of business altogether.
Fitch, in a damning verdict that saw them downgrade the Namibian economy from stable to negative, recently, said NEEEF would scare away investors who are not willing to give equities to blacks – or just anyone.
Presidential economic advisor Dr John Steytler thinks Fitch are overzealous in their analysis of NEEEF.
“Consultations are still underway. The NEEEF document at hand is a draft so it cannot be used to draw conclusions at that level,” he told New Era not long ago.
Many issues remain unclear in NEEEF, such as the approach of acquiring the 25 percent in white businesses. Purchase, barter? These are the questions.
The white community is so worried it would not even have names revealed when commenting on NEEEF.
Quinton van Rooyen, the owner of the extremely successful Trustco Group Holdings, refused to comment on the subject, and so did many of his wealthy peers.
Several schools of thought have surfaced though – from the whites themselves.
The white business community believes one cannot multiply wealth by dividing it. The white business community, the private sector, the Namibian Employers’ Federation (NEF) and the Namibian Agricultural Union (NAU) have all made it very clear to government that they believe NEEEF is a huge error of judgement on the part of government.
They believe the Bill is unworkable, in several respects unconstitutional and will have negative effects on the economy.
The NEF says: “If this were to mean legal action, so be it, but we will only decide once there is something concrete to challenge.”
The Bill’s call that any private sector enterprise established after the enactment of the Bill “may commence business only when such enterprise has secured 25 percent ownership by a racially disadvantaged person or persons, or such higher percentage as may be determined by the Minister”, is a great source of concern.
It also stipulates that despite any other legislation to the contrary, no private enterprise owned and controlled by a white person may allot, issue or register the transfer of any portion of its ownership to anyone other than a “previously disadvantaged or to a domestic or foreign enterprise” owned by a white.
All white business owners New Era Weekend spoke to, as well as NEF, are of the opinion there will probably be a slowdown in development, and or expansion, by local investors, who will be unable or unwilling to find a suitable partner.
They also fear a slowdown in foreign investment where potential investors will be unwilling to place some shareholding in local hands without suitable guarantees. This is the argument Fitch tried to advance too.
Tim Parkhouse, secretary general of the NEF, says the Bill will undoubtedly lead to increased unemployment. “The poor will remain poor and their lot in life will remain unchanged, while the wealthy will become wealthier,” he states.
The NEF has already appealed to government to withdraw the Bill and encourages government to commence in-depth research and consultations with the private sector, especially business owners, economists, foreign missions, donor agencies and workers and to mutually draft an alternative which can work to the benefit of all, and meaningfully reduce poverty in Namibia.
The NEF and white business persons say business does not happen by accident. It is built slowly by the sweat, tears, acumen and risked capital of the entrepreneur.
It is a known fact that more than 50 percent of all start-up businesses fail within 24 months – those that survive, do so due to the tenacity and expertise of the owner.
They maintain that to defeat poverty, Namibia must grow the economy.|