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North River Share Discussion Threads
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|Good post YT|
The stumbling block is that NEEEF is taking an eternity and they dont seem to be taking into consideration that key fluid and quick business decisions need to be taken by smaller companies whereby cashflow is key.
Perhaps they should exempt companies of a certain size at least in the shorter term, I can see them jumping on behemoths that can afford to delay but I am wondering how many smaller companies will abandon the country as this is now too risky ?
The Namibians do not have the skilled internal workforce to make these mines work competitively with other companies actually terminating workers contracts in the past due to poor standards with drills, practices etc.
Namibia is quite entrepreneurial in places and I would hope that it is investment wise that maybe the govt or businesses can throw some cash our way, we are after all on licence issue going to need around $20mn to get the Capex for full operational mining.
The licence will be issued if and when something sensible is agreed for smaller more nifty businesses, retrospective terms on licences for businesses that have already committed millions to exploration costs is a right cheek.
As I said on a previous note, basically tho we need this project to survive as a company so anything half decent we should accept and get mining !
Presumably some sort of endgame or compromise must be coming soon ? How much longer does bureaucracy need to decide on this or apply sensible practices to ongoing applications ?
|Summary on the licence for newer onlookers, might help :
The new govt have turned a bit Zimbabwe, whereas before they were very much a German Colony with sensible, albeit one party socialist leaning rule. There is a business heritage and entrepreneurialism there but the new govt are suffering from economic ills. They have looked at the way some FDI have taken the resources and paid minimal taxes or royalties (they claim) and tried to increase the interest for native Namibians. They have introduced a new NEEEF bill but they have basically killed the golden goose. However this bill has been raged about by including the British High Commission and high level FDI businesses.
With NRRP we were granted the exploration licence and given heads up for certain conditions, they have moved the goalposts. They are not saying they will not issue it they are saying NRRP has to agree to 25% of the company being in the hands of Namibian owners, it is unclear if they mean give it up to the government or allow purchase, the latter is okay but who has got the monies to take a chance in a small exploration company. They have taken a bit of a hammer to crack a nut.
The company disagrees with the 25% as NRRP is already expected to pay at least 37.5% tax plus royalties and obviously AIM companies are risky start ups anyways. The licence will be issued if NEEEF settles down and the company can agree terms.
The latest is that we have been told to expect further in the shorter rather than longer term.
|I tried googling Namibia and NEEEF and New Era and all sorts but nothing new came up the other week.
Assuming the company is still trying to get the licence approved hopefully there is alot going on behind the scenes. Now I am on PC not I-Phone I can type a bit more, it is still only speculative though.
Basically if the whole company is going down the plughole then for me it is better to accept any conditions in the short term that involved divesting of some shares or interest particularly if they can be purchased at market rate or somewhere reasonable just to get this show on the road.
The company strategy is to use EPL 2092 as a springboard so really it shouldnt matter if some of the gloss is taken off of it in order to get it up and running.
IE if this project is crucial to NRRP becoming an umbrella company with Greenstone in order to grow, even if the project is sub optimal in the short term, surely it is worth mining in any case as likeliest it will throw off Net cash at least and possibly lead to further investments?
After all if Namibia becomes like Zimbabwe unfortunately we have put all our eggs in this basket, but revenues here could lead to new partners and acquisitions outside of Namib whereby the climate is more beneficial to FDI ?
I can only hope and assume that the company thinks it has enough time to mothball spending and still be able to go forwards at some point once the licence is agreed ?
Who knows the advanced sales of ZINC to someone like GS or approved like Glencore at good prices $2700 and above could still make this a good economic project.
Just selling it to GS in some sort of liquidation deal doesnt really make sense as I doubt they will want to sell a mine with no licence and no development on it ?
BTW the mine might not be saleable without a DFS and action plan because the Namib said they would only grant the licence if it was going to be developed and not sold.
Hence conspiracy theories about the mine being sold on the cheap to GS are not ideal IMO because the next company will have to prove a DFS and come up with a plan as well, then get the licence potentially before they could buy the asset.
All we know is that Namib authorities are slow, this is a farce but that James has said that there might be an announcement at some point in the shorter period ?
Anyways I dont really know folks...
But ZINC is very good and commodities could do well again this year and get quite high on the expected slowdown of production that is now coming to fruition ?
|Zinc still above $2400 that gave good returns, surely they've agreed something by now around investor involvement? Even if the project is less favourable on govt taking a chunk surely as it's our first it's better to start with some clause seeking clarification or change down the line ? SighYT|
|Hi there, no, we need an announcement on the licence & pdq. How's the Zinc price ? Gotta look.NB : all I heard was that Namib govt suing Germany over some atrocity or inflicted crimes that happened 100 yrs ago or something?Not sure on detail but this govt feels like Zimbabwe, they have economic ills but going wrong way about resolving with this 'populist' stuff !NRRP needs to agree to mine asap !YT|
|Does anyone have any thoughts on the recent rise ??|
|Could have been a sale by a platform to cover its monthly/quarterly charge for an account that had an insufficient cash balance to cover the charge. Just guessing.|
|Hi volume this morning!|
|* Drill results indicate that refinement of the 3D geological and structural model is required prior to undertaking further drilling and that future resource development targeting is increasingly dependent on accessing additional underground drill positions as the mine is developed.
Bit further on this. The completion of the drilling campaign was to completely exhaust the drill points that were available from the surface to existing positions that they could drill from with the existing Drills that they have available.
As this paragraph states, a comprehensive 3D modelling and planned programme would have to be constructed from the Level 5 now completed drive in the North depths.
From the Southern depths, it was noted a while ago that there were no drill points from the surface here now particularly, so therefore the company advised that whilst they were in production they would build an area around 200 metres below South depths to enable a comprehensive campaign here as well.
This would need a detailed scientific structure in order to know exactly where to go we are told. This goes back to where the new technical team were claiming that Martin French's predictions were allegedly jumping the gun in some way and we needed a more definitive answer.
Hence they reworked the DFS and achieved they claim much greater confidence in the DFS result and implied extraction rates. We have their word to go on that the new experts thought that this needed to be more comprehensive.
Upgrade to JORC presumably wont happen until comprehensive planned campaigns happen as above below North and below South.
Hope that helps as a reminder. Want to get back to these types of discussions which are part of the nitty gritty, rather than the political risk fiasco and the potential funding risk still implied.
Yep the licence is the short term major make or break. Company saying that they have made suggestions and hope for progress in the near term.
|Limbo period not great for investor confidence. I know we say it all the time but license will make or break us ha|
|OF note :
Mining licence and ongoing development
"The Company continues to discuss the granting of the mining licence for the Namib Project with the Ministry of Mines and Energy, and is in the process of providing further detail to support the proposal submitted to the Ministry in April 2016 on meeting the new Mining Licence conditions.
Cash preservation remains a priority and the Company has further reduced corporate overheads and put next step resource development and drilling plans on hold until there is clarity on the timing of moving the project forward to a construction decision. A lower run rate level of expenditure going into 2017 will extend the available timeframe for the Company to firm up a development plan for the Namib Project or redefine the corporate strategy.
So great project at whopping ZINC which should help funding, but still no licence but hopeful near term. Will possibly increase the number of shares dramatically mind but this stock is not dead by any means.
It could be seen as massive bargain by outsiders on licence in particular ?
Question is state of company with the cash position and not damaging existing holders too much in this continued limbo period ?
|I hope that someone from the Board is meeting the Namibian president on his visit to the UK:
|Great post steve! Ive turned my self off with NRRP of late, however I still have my full holding from many purchases all the way down. Not got a bad average if this gets moving...
who knows, this delay may benefit us shareholders, as zinc continues to rocket!
|Again this is a potential money spinner for newer observers, NRRP is in a great position bearing in mind Steve's description of NR not being objected too in principle to get the licence. The news about ZINC and its general interest should attract people to this board and this company.
Christ we need that settlement over NEEEF or just get the licence in principle agreed or something. Jeez !
DYOR. The share price and number of shares is abysmal on delays.
|As the wait for a licence goes on and on, the price of zinc continues to go ballistic. As I write this, it’s currently around $2,710 per tonne.
The economics of the DFS were based on
a) A Sterling to Dollar exchange rate of 1.60 (bearing in mind that earnings would be mostly in US Dollars), which is now around 1.25, and
b) A zinc price of $2,400 per tonne. Based on the current exchange rate, today’s price of $2,710 is in effect equivalent to around $3,300 per tonne at a currency conversion rate of 1.60. I don’t need to explain what an increase in zinc price of 35-40% would do to profit margins (the word “orbit” springs to mind).
All the more reason to ask what the hell is going on here. Without naming individuals, I know from my own enquiries that certain people in high places have spoken to the Government of Namibia specifically about NRRP, indicating that this is NOT the way to attract foreign investment.
With the award of a mining licence, the company would be an absolute “no brainer” of an investment at this miniscule valuation. It seems to have become a bet (with fairly decent upside) on whether the company can trim its costs and hold out long enough to get a licence before the money runs out and another cash raise is required, which is not really feasible at the current market price.
It’s now 10 months since we were told that our application had been accepted in principle (while numerous others were rejected) but the whole NEEEF scenario has been another kick in the teeth. 3 months ago the company stated that it had appointed a couple of (black) Namibians to the board of the holding company to try to help “unlock the application process”. They really ought to be able to come to some kind of mutually beneficial agreement without having to wait for the implementation of new laws in Namibia.
All I want for Christmas is...|
|From Imperial Minerals PLC's annual results for year ended 30 June 2016:
"Imperial also holds a small interest in AIM-listed North River Resources (NRR). NRR remains focused on re-opening its Namib lead-zinc mine in Namibia. NRR’s greatest short-term value driver remains the securing of a long-awaited mining licence for the Namib project."
It's from the shortened version, there may be more in the full version when its published.|
Point one thanks, Point two no I am skint thanks to this investments turn for the worst since the heady heights of 0.99pence old money. On two occasions I had 50-75%gains of several thousands & didnt take it, since then I sat on my hands as deadlines came & went. No matter how good a prospective investment Rule No 1 is always to take a profit or certainly set a stop loss ! >:o(
To think we were admonishing various who sold in the early days between 0.50pence to 0.70pence. I think I wish I had done that as well. Meaning all those that dumped the stock long ago made decent monies from 0.30pence climb on the back of French's turnaround & all those that kept faith have been Shat on from a great height !
|My concern is that the Ministry may be delaying the issuance of new licences until the NEEEF bill is passed & who knows when that will happen.
In the absence of any information from the company on the subject - the most recent of its promised "quarterly" conference call was over 4 months ago & the interim results didn't add anything - all we can do is guess at what's happening.|