New Britain Palm Oil Share Discussion Threads

[trytotakeiteasy] 15/5/2013 19:23

woracle - I like AEP too but the stock is too illiquid.... impossible to buy.. yes gross margins collapsed on higher cost of sales... that is no doubt related to the rain.... not sure how but maybe more fertilizer or more costs of getting the stuff from the plants or something.... agree there should be an explanation but I don't think it will be on-going...

[woracle] 15/5/2013 15:13

They had heavy rainfall last year too but gross margins have simply collapsed this year without a clear explanation. With this level of production they surely can make profit on an 880 CPO average.

AEP is the only one i really rate as it has excellent management.

[trytotakeiteasy] 15/5/2013 09:16

woracle - they had heavy rainful in Q1 which hit output and I think increased costs.... I think you aren't correct in your assertion...

As I recall though you were pretty good in this area which stocks do you like at the moment in palm oil?

[woracle] 14/5/2013 21:46

Alarm bells should be ringing if they can only just about breakeven on a $880 cpo price. Thats a real shocker. They have lost control of costs it seems.

[trytotakeiteasy] 14/5/2013 17:57

strip out FX and they and that item and they made a profit

[undervaluedassets] 14/5/2013 07:38

Re trading update today...

Strip out the 'Net Gain on Recognition of Agricultural Products' (which is accounting jiggery pokery to do with the lifespan of the palms) and they actually made a loss before tax on the quarter.

With palm oil prices set to remain unchanged due to the palm oil glut ain't gonna get much better either.

Little known fact - palm oil does not keep - after a certain period of time it goes rancid and simply has to be dumped.

Debacle.

[undervaluedassets] 12/4/2013 12:19

mmm these have a long way to go yet.

Results this year can only be a disaster.

Simply a question of how big a disaster.

[hollingrove] 27/3/2013 07:08

You can say that again!

[hvs] 26/3/2013 08:07

Stiill going SOUTH

[hvs] 26/3/2013 08:06

Stiill going SOUTH

[woracle] 27/2/2013 09:44

horrendus year. EPS of 36c includes 11m exception gain and 8m currency gains. Without those.. well, closer to 28c. The CPO price is still below 800 so despite hedging a decent amount at 900, and no divi, i fail see why these should trade at above foreward PE 10. Impossible to predict earnings for this year but they will do well to repeat 36c. On that basis, the derating has a lot lot further to fall without big jump in CPO. My 360p fair value is way too high based on current situation.. suggest closer to 250p.

[undervaluedassets] 27/2/2013 09:27

results like these make me shudder...

Nearly bought here so often in the past.

[woracle] 05/2/2013 08:51

I haven't kept abreast of MPE lately but I can say AEP consistently traded at PE 16 before the 2008. Since then they have been rated at around 8 - 9, even when CPO was $4XX in the pits of the crash. Look at what the palm groups in Malaysia and Indo trade at now ..

[trytotakeiteasy] 05/2/2013 00:05

woracle - couldn't you say all palm oil groups need de-rating but MP Evans and Anglo Eastern still ride high... also it depends on whether you think CP US$830 is a temporary state of affairs or a blip...

Can you remind me of your views on the best plays in the sector?? Only quality ones seem to be AEP and MPE but they are pricey.. RE. is complex with a strange capital structure.. PALM is just a land company.....

[trytotakeiteasy] 04/2/2013 09:43

tried to sneak out a bad update on Friday... very accident prone this group..

[major clanger] 10/1/2013 19:52

I appreciate not many people follow this thread but saw this upgrade by Shore who link the CPO price to share price movements:

[pugugly] 20/12/2012 09:43

May have been posted already but came across this link to Chart of CPO pricing. and also Plantation stocks and pricing Very Good - Wish I had come across it before.

Might be useful if it could be added to the header

[woracle] 16/11/2012 00:07

Its been discussed in the last few posts. Basically it trades at a premium that isnt really justified vs peers so this is the de-rating in progress.

[cisk] 15/11/2012 23:57

SP has fallen off a cliff - anyone any thoughts why? Palm oil price is down but we've fallen more than that...

[woracle] 06/10/2012 07:49

The recent collapse in the CPO from 1050 to 795 means there will be no recovery in H2. It will be even worse an H1. EPS forecasts have been cut from 36 to 28p recently to reflect the weak CPO price. Its the same for all plantations but most are already lowly rated so I think this has the furthest to fall. A PE of 10 to 12 is fairer premium here, so suggest 280 to 340 as fair value if there is no recover in CPO this year. The chart looks ominous with a failed bounce. The positives are 30% of production has been hedged at 1090, and the kina has stabilised vs usd.