||EPS - Basic
||Market Cap (m)
|restassured: The management are dodgy,the share price movements are dodgy.The fact they are losing money, when other internet payment providers are making money is dodgy and unforgivable.
Even the broker is dodgy.|
|kramch: Dear Restassured,
since you are a far more intelligent being than those of us who live on this wretched little island, please could you enlighten us as to why you think the share price will be a multiple of the current price, and indeed whether this multiple will be above or below 1? In anticipation, K.|
|25cent: Every trick is being used to depress the share price prior to the bid by Desmond this includes organized orchestrated shorting at the start of the year.
Constant bad news RNS from the alluding to be independent board and even now apparently errors in trading updates.
That tiny error was effectively meaningless unless you make something of it by accidently (cough) getting 2% error on a inarticulate figure and then make a big deal out of it by issuing a RNS to further depress the price.
Meanwhile in the background someone (sic) is still picking up all the consistent sells all day everyday.
I don't think its long before the trap shuts on NEO at 75P with surprise surprise full board backing..|
Yep it looks like it, obviously the share price is not going up on the back of the trading, indeed the board did its best yesterday to undermined the share price by saying that they are about to spend the cash.
I don't buy it at all, Desmond has 2 members on the NEO board now and me thinks that the board is telling porkpies in a attempt depress the share price ahead of a desmond buy out.
Don't get me wrong they are not telling barefaced lies, I just think Desmond will take them over before their pseudo expansion plans come to fruition
restassured i think peopele have made it clear that your not wanted on this thread!|
|snowman10: Copied from III board.
Neovia shares are now down to 36p, a record low. Based on estimates by Daniel Stewart (Neovia's house broker) the P/E is 5x 2008 earnings, 8.3x 2009 and 3.9x 2010 earnings. A price of 36p/share values Neovia at about $60m, which is a discount of about 33% to Neovia's net asset backing of about $90m, most of which is in cash.
In its recent trading statement, Neovia said it although it has $82m of cash, it had only $68m of working capital, of which $38m was "free cash". "A substantial proportion of this available cash is earmarked for capital expenditures in 2009 and the IDT acquisition."
Based on these numbers, Neovia shares are very cheap, but what might make them go up?
I see two possibilities.
The less attractive possibility would be a takeover bid by Dermot Desmond, who owns 26% of the company and is reputed to be a very smart investor. The potential benefits to him of taking the company over at (say) 50p are enormous. He could immediately distribute 20p of free cash to himself and within three years recover most of the remaining 30p from distributing Neovia's free cash flow back to himself.
From a current level of 36p, a bid from Mr Desmond at 50p would be likely to be warmly received by shareholders. The board would have a hard time convincing shareholders to reject the bid, despite its cheapness.
As attractive as a bid at 50p might seem, it is probably the second best option for shareholders. A much better option for shareholders would be if the board were to announce that it was going to do the following:
i) Publicly commit to paying 100% of all earnings as dividends, while offering a dividend reinvestment plan ("DRP") to shareholders to provide some capital for the company to use to grow its business. Based on Daniel Stewart numbers, this would place the shares on a 2009 dividend yield of 12% and a 2010 dividend yield of 26% at 36p. I suspect that this decision alone would cause a substantial upwards re-rating of Neovia shares, probably to well over 50p in a short space of time.
Neovia has a cash generative business and by its own admission has substantial surplus cash. Neovia's profits should be distributed to the shareholders, the owners of the company, rather than used to grow the business for its own sake. After all, what is the use of growing the business, if the share price never reflects the value of the business?
ii) Additionally, commit to buying back shares whenever they can be bought at a discount to net asset value of more than (say) 30%. This would put a floor under the share price at around 40p per share at current exchange rates.
Share buybacks at large discounts to net asset value are beneficial for both long term and short term oriented shareholders. The former benefit from a higher share price, while the latter benefit from the fact that such buy-backs themselves increase net asset value per share.
Paradoxically, a commitment to do this might not actually involve spending much cash as it would probably cause a rerating of the shares, especially if combined with a 100% dividend payout policy.
From a shareholder perspective, the above course of action is incredibly attractive.
Unfortunately, it is not shareholders who will decide the issue. It is the company's board and management who will decide if the share price stays at 36p or rises to something closer to net asset value of about 53p per share.
So what can shareholders do?
If you own Neovia shares, you need to make your views known to Neovia's board.
Tell them if you are happy to see the share price where it is, or whether you would like to see action by the board to lift the share price to a level closer to the real value of the business.
Tell them if you'd like to be paid 100% of earnings as dividends, or if you'd like earnings retained in the company.
Tell them your opinion about whether the company should attempt to buy back shares to lift both the share price and the net asset value per share. You might care to remind them of Warren Buffett's saying that the goal of a management ought to be to grow per-share value rather than to grow management's empire.
There are three ways you can communicate with the company.
The fastest is to send a message to Neovia's investor relations department via:
You could mail a letter to Dale Johnson, the Chairman, at
6 Finch Road
Isle of Man
His fax number is 01624 615320.
It would be sad if shareholder inaction enabled Mr Desmond to buy the shares at a cheap price, and even worse if continuing board inaction kept the shares at a huge discount to their real value.
Fellow shareholders over to you...
Disclosure: I have owned the shares for two years and am very frustrated about the share price, and the board's apparent indifference to the share price.
I do not agree with all these points but some are correct.
Please have a read and post a view. We can then sort things out and talk to IR dept on the IOM.
I am happy to try and contact them short term.
Getting fed up of posting to you but whilst some of your points are valid, please do not dress them up with spin.
The Free cash situation is very different from CASH. Please do not confuse the two.
A further broker has again today placed a buy on NEO target 85p.
The market may warm to these sooner or later.
I note your reply to Tiger who i have met. If you are from Poole ( very nice it is)you may of heard of a company Dolphin Packaging?
It was mine till we sold out to the Yanks.
|guidfarr: well that's the way it goes - take advantage of recessions and continue re-investing keeping yourself ahead of the pack - expand while your competitors contract or at the most remain as-is, on the positive side the competitors of neteller who don't have the luxury of cash reserves will find that it is hard to borrow money during this time so for them it is either a survival or doom scenario. I don't think the recession itself will hit NEO's volumes that much, their business is global so any contraction will be contained. I know that NEO has a strong balance sheet and has the financial resources to endure the recession and that pretty well addresses one of my concerns
And the recession almost makes it impossible for new entrants to find the funding to launch - you only have to look at ivobank - when it launched last year there was an explosion in traffic now it's traffic is practically non-existent. Look at click2pay - the company is stagnant - the only real competitor to NEO is moneybookers.
As for answering points - I'm not here to give you answers but to share research - the other posters in here have done a good job at explaining some of the intricacies. I'm not an analyst and I don't pretend to know a lot buti don't call other posters morons - i simply specialise in the gaming sector and follow everything that is going on in the sector.
And AGAIN I REPEAT IT - I don't know who is shorting Neteller but I'm pretty damn sure that when we check the percentage on loan next month this will have increased!! That would means that a considerable number of those 'sells' would have been artificial selling. SOONER THAN LATER THERE WILL BE A BEAR SQUEEZE - at the present trading levels i see more upside than downside risk and the fact that someone is trying HARD to push the share price of this company down makes me smile because for me the amount on loan are future buys.
I don't know who said the markets were efficient and regulated - I'm seeing manipulation on a grand scale and not only in NEO no wonder experienced traders tell you to stay away from the share markets unless you have inside information.|
|25cent: Boogle the perceived 48p in cash per share was the only thing supporting the share price.
Now that they have revealed that they only have about 22p in free cash and not only that but that they expect to spend even that then NEO will then be valued on its profits alone from this point.
The recent seller was obviously aheaad of the curve on that, i wonder why?
So lets take next years consensus figures of 4 million pounds and a sector average p/e of 8 that gives you a share price of 32p? thats why i would not hold your breath for any rally.
That's precisely why no rally occurred on Friday and precisely why they have been dumped since January because they were overpriced at 60p on this new information.
That is kind of my whole point recently, that being someone was obviously made aware of this and started dumping millions each week.
I personally would have rather they have kept the 48p in cash per share and run the existing business that was making 3 million pounds per year.
Silly me eh?|
|bogg1e: Id be interested to see what brokers, etc have to say about the figures. All the usual sources i use to see which companies are publishing results did not include NEO this week, which suggests that NEO did not warn the market in advance. Do they have the right to do that under AIM laws? I presume that they must have acted legally because look at what the threat of being perceived as dishonest does to a company's share price, and what happens to the person caught doing it. Nevertheless, the quiet manner in which the results were presented means that many possible investors/traders, especially those who watch the gaming sector in general, many not yet even know that results are out. We'll have to see how the market reacts next week as more people cotton on. On that point i am relieved that the dramatic slides prior to the results have not continued. Im pretty sure that we have hit the bottom, at least for now at 36p offer. The company, despite one off costs etc, are still performing well, when compared to the disasters that have hit other good quality companies this year, NEO look relatively well placed to stay at least secure enought to weather the storm, ie at the very least you wont lose money on current NEO share price (36p) if you can afford to hold a year or so. Happy Trading all.|
"I would also not pay too much notice to your supposed big seller"
In light of the continued daily dumping of neo stock day after day,
I think in all honesty that is the most blatantly stupid thing i ever read on this site!
Yep your right all my posts about bad news being behind the wholesale dumping of neoshares over the last 6 weeks have been completely wrong LOL??????
Or shall we just forget that bit and pretend that today's news was great and the sells never really happened over the last 6 weeks?
YEH i have to say that i have been 100% wrong and you have been 100% right?
I don't know what update your reading but it Cleary say in the update that " Results for the full year will be impacted by
approximately US$ 1.1 million in restructuring..
and intangible assets arising on the acquisition of
Netbanx Limited in 2005. Goodwill and intangible assets amounting to US$ 14.5
So add the 14.5 million and the 1 million that gives 15.1 million now take the consensus profit of 8 million away and you have a loss of 7 million??
None of those were buys today,invest in level 2 its not "all guesswork " as you claim you can then see as and when the trade's happens like i did today.
No market maker took 1.5 million shares why would they? Neo is an order book system (SEAQ) traded stock and not a market marker driven one.
I think you need to brush up on your basic market knowledge pal before you start attacking other people, you run the risk of looking stupid.
With regards your laughable claim to have made the trading update appear via a phone callyesterday , well all i will say is your the one thats ill?
I don't think he can be selling his holding more likely it on loan to the person shorting,(obviously not know to Mr D or planed ) cough!
He could walk this down to as low as he wants and it looks like that is the plan.
Then in July offer 30p for the company at an 100% premium to the then 15p share price.
Either that or he is not disclosing his % sales through rns, lets face it it would not be the first time that had happened on a aim stock.
What i will say is whatever is happening all the large holders seem to know because not one of them is increasing its stake in NEO in this collapse and well reading that today pretty much explains why the shorter felt it was easy money.
I did say last week that the person shorting this stock must be fully aware that nothing in the trading update is going to hurt his position, how could that be i wonder?.
Now then think who has a member on the board and holds nearly 30% of the stock it all starts to look very clear what has been happening and it all looks like it come from one mans works, that being Mr D.
In my opinion the update and figures became know to the board in January and that's when the shorting started,then the update was not released for 2 months no coincidence in my opinion.
This share is clearly only heading one way from this point for some time to come yet, as can be seen by the continued huge selling today.|
|25cent: Hi Guidfarr,
The 0.25% rule is for every company IF they are involved in or undertaking rights issues, so it does not have any bearing on NEO as its not involved in any rights issues.
So no short % discourses are applicable to NEO.
Hope this helps.
Who is loaning out 13% of NEO i wonder? our mate Mr. Desmond no doubt?
Somewhat ironic that the reason some people thought that the share price would go up is the very reason its at a all time low with absolute zero support.
Seriously he could force this down into the teens.
NEO should screw him over big-time and announce a return of cash to shareholders of say 40p per share then he would have to put up and make a bid to get his hands on the cash or move on.
Also it would screw this short position big time.
But i am pretty sure whoever is shorting 13% of this company is 100% sure that's not going to happen? WHY? well thats because he owns 29% of the company and has a man on the board.
Neovia Financial share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange