Ncondezi Energy Share Discussion Threads

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 31/1/2017 15:54

Have your South African contacts given you an update on when the 29p KIBO takeover is happening Andrew?Stones and glass houses.

[doshdabbler] 31/1/2017 15:54

Let it go Andrew. A stock you don't hold is consuming your life.

[m1sak] 31/1/2017 15:47

Or a middle eastern car dealer!

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 31/1/2017 14:45

Here are the main highlights, basically its game on, Hanno's remarks are in "" Negotiating as we speak so working through CNY to get this over the line. "We are in the middle of negotiations at the moment so I can't say too much at the moment. I can confirm that both SEP and Ncondezi are both focused on concluding the JDA. The deal is on and its BIG "As I'm sure you can appreciate, this is a fairly large transaction committing the two companies to a long partnership over a +$1bn investment." NO dilution "With regards to further funding, I can only point towards our track record in finding funding solutions that don't require shareholder dilution." "Apologies I cant say more at the moment. Hope to update you properly soon." Its imminent guys, this is going to land any day now.

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 31/1/2017 10:00

Stones and glass houses. Careful what you wish for.

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 31/1/2017 09:55

I haven't trolled any board, I asked who was the project financier for EDL and KIBO which is a perfectly reasonable question.

[magnet26] 31/1/2017 09:36

Arnt you the troll trolling Kibo's BB's. This is a long term share... maybe will reach double figures by 2019.

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 31/1/2017 08:43

Trolls are back again today I see, grow up boys. The only 4s this will be touching are the 40s in due course.

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 31/1/2017 08:41

Sorry but my name isn't Earl, it's Stuart as I have already pointed out several times UKbam. Why don't you run along back to your boiler room and stop acting like a child on this board.

[magnet26] 31/1/2017 08:13

Could be mid 4's by close of business. Disastrous for PI's.

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 30/1/2017 20:57

Funny. For all your anal "research" you still don't know the period Chinese New Year runs over. Your masks slipping sonny Jim.

[kibes] 30/1/2017 19:45

KatyLied - I agree the question of a coal offtake agreement (and price) bothers me as well. As NCCL is getting 40% of the power project I assume the coal would essentially be supplied to the project at cost of extraction, which since it is virtually on site would be a very low price indeed and less than any other source.

[katylied] 30/1/2017 18:47

You are entitled to your opinion. You now have at least 2 weeks of Chinese festival, where likely nothing is going to happen. Take a break, no need to exhaust yourself day after day, with pointless conflicts...

[edit]

...Chinese New Year celebrations, also known as the Spring Festival, in China start on the 23rd day of the 12th lunar month of the Chinese calendar. The festival lasts for about 23 days, ending on the 15th day of the first lunar month in the following year in the Chinese calendar... Many Chinese will make the journey home. The authorities predict that between 13 January and 21 February, Chinese citizens will make 2.5 billion trips by land, 356 million by rail, 58 million by plane and 42 million by sea...

28th Jan (new year's day) +15 days = ~2 weeks


Over and Out

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 30/1/2017 18:40

I'm sure you do though the phrase "shoehorning" springs to mind. I don't think that all your pegs are necessarily the right size.

[katylied] 30/1/2017 18:19

Yes, I am cursed by knowing 'facts'...

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 30/1/2017 18:16

Guess you don't hold here, just another conscientious observer.They haven't spent the last year kicking stones around. Just because they don't issue a RNS every other week doesn't mean things aren't progressing. Which they undoubtedly are.JDA "expected" Q1. Its January.

[katylied] 30/1/2017 17:58

Good post kibes. No disagreement on (1), in fact I have read somewhere that Portuguese speaking Africa and particularly Mozambique, are China's top Africa investment choices, though that may have been before the debt crisis blew up from ~March 2016..

(2) Is problematic. Currently, there is no agreement for a coal offtake between SEP and NCCL. It was the major omission from the JDA terms outlined back at the start of 2016. There is an assumption that an agreement will be reached at some future date, but it hasn't happened yet. This remains a problem, because Mozambique is awash with thermal coal (byproduct of coking coal), for which there is no local or export market (export because of the current FOB costs). So put simply, SEP doesn't actually need to get coal from NCCL, though they are still expected to.

(3) You didn't specifically mention AFD who hold ~22%. If the JDA deal isn't closed by May 10th, NCCL will be unable to repay AFD (plus the other shareholder loan) and the 2nd tranche of the AFD loan will be blocked. So in this case, the real question is what will AFD do? Seems to me, the most obvious outcome would be a takeover (much like what happened to BAO). AFD could then just wait it out, without funding fears, until the Chinese were ready. novicetrader68 has alternatively suggested that AFD will just cave-in, and redefine the terms, to keep NCCL afloat. I'm not so sure, anyone demanding 50% interest per year with a late penalty, is already playing hardball...

(4) As I recall, the minimum share price for a takeover (Takeover Panel) is set as the highest share price paid in the preceding 12 months. To date that would be the recent ~8p/share. Not at all clear why any more would be paid, if AFD didn't have to. What would be the alternative? Receivership? Of course, its possible SEP might actually want NCCL's coal and make a counter bid themselves.

A wild card, is that the price of thermal coal might recover sufficiently, for other players to get interested as an export prospect (now that the Nacala rail is built). I got hopeful once, that CIL (Coal India) might come to the rescue after their own disastrous Mozambique experience. I read recently that they were back on the acquisition trail for foreign (to India) coal assets. But the article then said that Mozambique was not on their target list. Perhaps not surprising...

[kibes] 30/1/2017 17:25

MohamedAliBusiness,

1. I believe the project will go ahead because SEP have made clear their commitment and have reported that it is part of President Xi Jin Ping's 'One belt, one road' initiative. As he is in total command in China with as much power as Chairman Mao I would suggest that what he says goes.

2. It is not clear to me whether the project will involve Ncondezi or whether the Chinese would prefer to just do it on their own. In that case, since Ncondezi do own the rights to the coal, I suggest they would have to be bought out by SEP. In order to achieve the best price for this, it is in the interests of SEP to drag it out for as long as possible whilst watching NCCL struggle for funds.

3. I believe the NCCL Board can also see this possibility and will do their best to raise funds as may be needed to keep the company going in a way which does not dilute shareholders, as they have done in the past. But they are not going to lose sight of the fact that NCCL owns the coal and are certainly not going to walk away without achieving a fair price.

4. In my opinion a buyout price would have to be at a much higher level than the current share price. If it comes it will be straight out of the blue, there will certainly be no chance to buy in. But in the meantime the shares may certainly show further weakness in a routine transfer of wealth from the weak to the strong.

5. As to whether the Chinese pay fair prices in buying up coal assets my personal experience has been that yes they do. I had some shares in a coal mining company in Australia (Felix Resources) which I bought for 2p/share and the company was eventually bought out by the Chinese at around 40p/share.

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 30/1/2017 17:18

I have the same IP address as Earl? That comment really hasn't done your credibility any good as quite clearly it's a bare faced lie which underlines the rest of the BS you have been spouting on this board.Run along now.

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 30/1/2017 16:39

Mo which part of this don't you get - I AM NOT EARL. As for reservations I wouldn't be invested in something if I didn't have confidence of a significant return on my investment, if your not confident in NCCL then perhaps you should sell up instead of whinging.