Ncipher Share Discussion Threads

[rivaldo] 14/4/2008 20:54

Hope you're right napoleon. I think I agree that this time NCH's days are probably numbered with a "number" of bidders mentioned and the need for security going NCH's way, it's just a question of price.

Another news item FYI - one more reason to acquire NCH since it's at the forefront:



"Leveraging Web Expertise for Secure SOA
1/17/2005 | Print Version

by Vance McCarthy
A coalition of enterprise security vendors are proposing a three-tier blueprint for helping architects and devs secure their building inventory of SOA applications.

The group -- comprised of Forum Systems, nCipher and Oblix -- is among the first to collaborate on defining a real-world, deployable and manageable "SOA security blueprint" for securely accessing backend J2EE application servers -- from either inside an enterprise or between partners.

The "blueprint," in fact, ties together all the infrastructure components an enterprise would need to secure the entire SOA pipeline: from the perimeter, across multiple firewalls, into the back office and finally into the application. The technologies addressed include: protocol protection, identity management, access control, threat protection, security management and key management cryptography. The "blueprint" also addresses the performance impact that widespread use of encryption and digital signatures can have efficient use of SOA systems. [The work was debuted at Oracle's Open World last month in San Francisco.]

[Forum Systems is the provider of XML data and web services security hardware and software. nCipher provides a range of cryptographic security for hardware and software assets. Oblix is a provider of identity and policy management options to web and SOA environments, including multi-platform single-sign on solutions.]

"Basically, our blueprint for end-to-end SOA security brings together three (3) different layers of security, which individually contribute a specialized security protection," Wynn White, an Oblix marketing manager told IDN. Those three different layers include...."

[napoleon 14th] 14/4/2008 10:03

Long just a few NCH @ 179p; 2 way bet - recovery or bid.
There's a number of possible bidders, including French CS group who recently sold a large part of their biz. for cash & are already in encription....

[rivaldo] 13/4/2008 07:44

From yesterday's FT - IBM and EMC bidding?



"NCipher shares rise on takeover approaches
By Maija Palmer

Published: April 11 2008 09:49 | Last updated: April 11 2008 09:49

Shares in NCipher rose 40 per cent in early trading on Friday after the data encryption company said it was once again being circled by potential acquirers.

Cambridge-based NCipher said it had received "a number of preliminary approaches" which could lead to a bid for the company. The interest comes two years after a previous takeover bid for the company failed on competition grounds.

Simon Strong, analyst at KBC Peel Hunt, said likely bidders might include IBM and EMC, which are likely to be interested in adding more encryption expertise to their security portfolio. Recent incidents like the loss of 25m child benefit recipient records by the UK government have recently heightened awareness of the need to encrypt data.

The approaches are likely to have been unsolicited. NCipher, which makes security products for large financial customers like Deutsche Bank and Egg, has only very recently appointed a new management team, replacing founders Alex and Nicko Van Someren, who had led the group for the last 11 years.

Geoffrey Finlay, who was appointed chief executive last December, is heavily incentivised to bring the company's shareprice to £6 over the next three years, and is unlikely to have been seeking a buyer at NCipher's current low levels of valuation.

The company has also began a substantial programme of investment in new technology, which it warned would hold back profits this year.

In 2006, SafeNet, a US rival, attempted to acquire the company for £86.1m, but the deal was blocked because it would have brought together the UK's two largest providers of encryption hardware.

Since then, the shares have halved in value, and the company's market cap at Thursday's close was just £35.5m."

[rivaldo] 12/4/2008 07:58

Well, 250p would be a start....

That closing rogue trade really screwed things up - up 50p to 170p more like :o))



"Among smaller companies, data encryption specialist Ncipher gained a 40.20 per cent, or 50.75p to 135p, after confirming earlier speculation about a takeover approach. The company said that it has received a number of preliminary approached, but remained silent on the identity of the suitors. Investor sentiment was helped by vague market chatter, which suggested that the company had received offers of up to 250p per share."

[cwa1] 11/4/2008 17:23

Didn't watch the unwinding on L2 but most likely just a freakish trade that has caused it to show that figure. Looks like a 500 share trade. Nowt to worry about I don't think, normal business should be resumed on Monday unless there is an announcement that all talks are off, which I doubt.

[mick33] 11/4/2008 17:15

price now back to £1.35 ??

[rivaldo] 11/4/2008 16:19

Yep. A bit of further perspective from the respected IT guy Richard Holway:



"Data encryption group nCipher shares have rocketed yesterday and today by over 50% to 181p after it confirmed that it had received a number of preliminary approaches "that may lead to an offer being made for the company". Putting this into context, though, nCipher shares had been at 270p in mid-2007."

[nurdin] 11/4/2008 13:33

-NCH currently have an EV of of around £24m
-this for a company which reported revenues of £24m with pretax profit of 3.4m for the year just ended, despite the high R&D costs of £5.3m
-gross margins were at very impressive 88.5%
-most high tech comapnies are valued at 3-4 times revenues,even when they not making that much profit
-without the the planned investment in the company declared recently,NCH were pencilled in to make pretax of £4.24m by KBC for the current yar
-based on these facts and bearing mind that NCH have considerable IP assets,I reckon a price of 300p,or market cap of £48m, is not entirely unreasonable.That would value the company at just 2x last years revenues or about 11x potential profits for the current year

[rivaldo] 11/4/2008 12:17

The Mail reports today that predators are reported to be putting together a cash bid at "well in excess of" 200p per share.

I should bleedin' well hope so. Let's hope we get a nice auction.

[rivaldo] 11/4/2008 09:38

Phil, I sold all of mine at 285p, don't ask me how the brokers did it but I was grateful :o)) Grateful to get back in at much lower prices too.

Don't know about 500p phil, a tad optimistic perhaps....looking back, the tender offer valued NCH at £82m. Subtract the £34m cash distributed leaves £48m, so with 16.8m shares currently in issue that would equate to 300p per share residual value.

Since then NCH have acquired Neoscale too.

Difficult to value. NCH must be highly tempting in the current security climate, so if there are keen buyers out there then certainly 300p or maybe a lot more could be on the cards. If not, then my 230p-250p may be more realistic.

[philjeans] 11/4/2008 09:08

Riv - tender offer was at 285p per share. I sold a few - kept many more. Want five quid min.

[rivaldo] 11/4/2008 08:51

:o))

"A number of approaches"....come on boys, let's have a bidding war!

Safenet bid 300p per share. I can't remember offhand how much per share was distributed in the tender offer - anyone remember?

Instinctively I'd be surprised if a winning bid was much less than 230p-250p per share.

[cwa1] 11/4/2008 08:35

Approaches announced. Will just hang on for now :-)

[cwa1] 11/4/2008 08:29

Yup. Thinking I might chop half of them out and take the profits on them in case this fizzles out, or turns out to be a non story. If it turns out to be a bid for £5 by the end of the day, too bad ;-)

[philjeans] 11/4/2008 08:18

Well, the company will probably issue a statement now, either confirming or denying the rumours.

I doubt it's a bid; been here before.

[cwa1] 11/4/2008 08:13

Aha!! Thanks for that rivaldo. About time this dog showed some life.

Wonder what sort of price somebody would have to pitch at to get it IF there really was some interest out there??

[nurdin] 11/4/2008 08:13

I hinted at the takeover possibilty in my post 35 :o)

[robow] 11/4/2008 08:06

yikes again

[rivaldo] 11/4/2008 07:58

Here we go :o))

From the FT:



"Ncipher jumped 19.5 per cent to 153p amid talk the data encryption group had also received takeover approaches"

[et cetera] 10/4/2008 22:34

With Chronic Investor issuing a full page SELL tip on 28 March



.... the shares should continue their rise now .... LOL

[rivaldo] 10/4/2008 21:57

Isn't it just the closing auction reflecting a large buy from earlier in the day at the lower price? Happy to be told I'm wrong! But tomorrow's opening will be interesting.

Today's appointments were undoubtedly impressive. Maybe Mr Market figures this is part of the heralded step-change for NCH in focusing on selling and marketing their apparently still market-leading products.

[masurenguy] 10/4/2008 18:04

This share is completely manipulated. Absurd spread, big rise on small Buys followed by big falls on Sells way below the Bid.

[nurdin] 10/4/2008 16:32

wow...glad I held onto mine :o)