Ncipher Share Discussion Threads

[rivaldo] 10/2/2008 07:40

Yep :o)) Given that NCH is pretty volatile, hopefully any decent buying will result in a nice bounce here...

Some good NCH publicity:



"Widespread encryption heralds new attacks
Malicious users will turn to extortion, warn experts

Written by Matt Chapman at NetEvents, Barcelona
vnunet.com, 08 Feb 2008

The guys who are trying to get in will start using encryption more effectively
- Anton Grashion Security strategist Juniper Networks

Hackers will become more skilled at using encryption as the technology becomes more widespread, and could use it to launch new forms of attacks, according to security experts.

Anton Grashion, security strategist for EMEA at Juniper Networks, told a panel at NetEvents in Barcelona that companies are constantly evolving and that hackers will always move with them.

"Business is changing and the guys who are trying to get in will start using encryption more effectively," he said.

Grashion warned that hackers will see a great opportunity in attacking key infrastructures.

"If they can get malicious code onto your end-point they can encrypt that machine and ask you for money to decrypt it," he said.

Richard Moulds, executive vice president of product strategy at Ncipher, added: "It is almost like a new style of denial-of-service.

"If you can get into an organisation and revoke the key that is used to encrypt back-up tapes, what a fantastic way of denying your business.""

[nurdin] 09/2/2008 15:49

Nice write up in scsw..:o)

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 08/2/2008 17:20

I see some quite big buyers are coming into NCipher today which bodes well for further rises.

Fron naked trader site.

[rivaldo] 08/2/2008 10:19

Per today's RNS results are out on 18th March - we already know they'll be nicely in line, so hopefully the recent bounce should continue for the next month, markets permitting as you say aardvark.

[the_aardvark] 05/2/2008 14:07

210/215 would be good short term, med term upto around 265 then we will be into new territory. Lets hope the results are above expectations and the market is positive that day. Not to much to ask!!!

[rivaldo] 05/2/2008 11:32

Yep, we should see 300p imo also, whether via takeover or just by re-rating. A few more ID theft scares and a couple more contract wins should do the trick nicely, and we already know that NCH is trading in line so the results should be pretty decent at worst.

[the_aardvark] 05/2/2008 10:22

Nice slow intra day climb. Just what the doc ordered.

[nurdin] 05/2/2008 08:52

I bought a few too...look very cheap at current levels :o)

[davidosh] 04/2/2008 23:14

I must admit to picking up quite a few last Friday too having watched it for a while after falling through the £2 level which was my original target. I am certainly not linked to Robbie Burns though.

By my calculation the growth in the core business should lead to an expectation of around 19p for 2009 and so if we are not taken out there may just be a chance of seeing £3 againover the next 18 months. That will do for me and minimal downside one hopes from here with the cash for any needs already in the bank

[rivaldo] 04/2/2008 21:43

Ta das9. Techinvest is less influential than it used to be, but I still rate it in general.

Davidosh is absolutely right, one should strip out interest receivable in calculating any P/E net of cash - but with at least £11m cash on a £30m m/cap and 15p consensus EPS forecast for 2008, NCH is surely good value at the least by all yardsticks.

Incidentally, Robbie Frequenttrader Burns has just bought NCH back for his portfolio today so we may get some follow-on buying. He says:

"I've tried twice to get a good entry point into Ncipher (NCH) and failed, each time I've got out fast with tiny losses. Just as well as it's gone down 20% since my last entry attempt.

So.. I am trying again at this lower level thinking that this HAS to be a good time to get in! Anyhow this is probably my last stab at it and I bought 3,000 shares at 176.5 on Friday. The technology it has and its markets (such as security at airports) look good. And at this reduced price I'd have thought it would make a decent takeover target. I really looks oversold and I noticed some buying coming in late last week."

[das9] 04/2/2008 14:13

I'm not sure how influential Techinvest is these days (any better ideas for my annual subscription??) but fwiw in this w/e's issue they have modified their list of tips for 2008 (see post 958 for original list):

- Maxima has been dropped due to profits warning
- Promoted to nap tip is our very own NCH @ 190p

[davidosh] 04/2/2008 12:50

No problem...I am a buyer at this level as the core operating profits are growing steadily and should do so for a number of years. Just wanted to make it clear that cash cannot simply be returned to holders without losing earnings from the interest so bottom line would be affected too.

I like the company looking slimmer and the real earnings growth showing through anyway.

[clogue] 04/2/2008 11:10

daviddosh,
Good point, but in my defense I did say they were quick ( if flawed ) calculations.
Still happy with my purchase at 172p and if they go lower I'll buy more for reasons stated previously.

[davidosh] 03/2/2008 19:20

Cloque,

Do be a little careful about stripping out cash from calculations as that also provides a large lump of income in the form of interest. A couple of years back before the cash return to shareholders it was actually as big as the operating profit !!

The company is slimmer now and real operating earnings are growing very steadily.....NCH should be higher profile too with the recent data protection disasters.

It is also worth remembering that Safenet were prepared to pay a lot more for NCH when their earnings were far less. It was of course blocked but does suggest that there is value in NCH at this level.

[sheik yerbouti] 01/2/2008 15:57

This was one of SCSW naps for 2008 at 219p. Wasn't tempted at that price, but I'm in today now they have dropped another 20% since then.

[clogue] 01/2/2008 14:12

Sold most of my holding at the buy back but couldn't resist buying yesterday, topped up again today( two day av. 172p).
Did some quick calculations yesterday and if you strip out the cash the shares price is approx £1. Brokers forcast of over 12p profit this year puts this on a low PE and a very low PEG.
With the recent publicity over data protection I expect a lot of money to be thrown at the problem and as this company has a market cap of only £30m it would not take much to make a very big difference to the share price.

[rivaldo] 01/2/2008 12:15

Agreed. NCH have £11m or so of cash against a £29m m/cap, yet on two broker forecasts as below are almost on a single-figure P/E now:

2007 2008
Broker Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p)
KBC Peel Hunt Ltd 30-01-08 BUY 3.55 9.84 4.24 15.75
Panmure Gordon 30-01-08 BUY 3.39 9.08 3.35 12.30
Charles Stanley 26-10-07 BUY 3.40 10.27 4.10 16.69

[jonnyno1] 01/2/2008 07:55

dare i say it, but mick33, i think you were the last of the weak holders. better luck with your next one i hope it makes up for the loss suffered on this considerably unloved stock.

[rivaldo] 31/1/2008 21:11

I don't remember seeing mick33 here before...oh well. Good luck mick - of course NCH is just the sort of stock to thrive in these times of necessary protection against identity fraud and the need for data protection, but no harm in cutting and running.

Personally I'm quite happy to wait for NCH to announce their nicely in line results and to receive another bid approach. A swift look at the fundamentals and asset/cash backing should suffice to convince most of NCH's worth.

[mick33] 31/1/2008 20:22

The last of the weak holders to be driven out ?,well time will tell,i have sold all my holding for a hefty loss,good luck to all still in this if it does bounce.From my own point of view ,having stood and watched some of my other stocks being marked down day after day ,week after week and doing nothing about it,i decided to cut free from this one.. Hope it goes well in the long run ,but quite frankly this is the type of stock that could be marked down bit by bit in the present markets..

[jonnyno1] 31/1/2008 17:09

well the last few days must have driven the last of the weak holders out , time for a bounce methinks.


j.

[timtom2] 30/1/2008 12:18

Find it hard to see Tap Storage increasing. There is a push to legal compliance that is not to Tapes advantage. I take that with a pinch of salt.

[rivaldo] 29/1/2008 15:11

Bargain time here imo. And this is an interesting article with NCH throwing their hat into the ring:



"M&S admits to staff data losses

A laptop belonging to Marks and Spencer was stolen in May 2007 it has been revealed

Charlotte Baxter, IT Week 29 Jan 2008

Marks and Spencer has announced that a laptop containing 26,000 staff member details was stolen last year, prompting the UK data protection watchdog, the Information Commissioner's Office (ICO), to take action against the firm.

"We have issued Marks and Spencer with an Enforcement Notice. They have to encrypt all of their laptops containing personal data by April 2008. If they proceed not to do so, they will be prosecuted," said an ICO spokeswoman.

The spokewoman went on to say, "We want companies to take data protection seriously, and it is good to see that companies are more frequently stepping forward to make sure they are securely protecting their data,"

"In regards to the Marks and Spencer case, it has brought light to the issue of data protection."

The ICO has once again called for more enforcement and investigation powers, following this, and other recent incidents. Other recent data losses include the loss of a MoD Royal Navy laptop, containing the personal details of 600,000 people. It was then admitted that two other laptops had also gone missing in December 2000 and October 2006.

The HMRC also lost 25m child benefit-recipients data as well as the personal details of 6,500 pensioners in Cardiff.

The Ministry of Justice has also had a recent data breach, losing four CDs containing the personal information of alleged victims and witnesses.

However, according to experts, some firms are wary of putting too much control on their data, with many admitting that they are wary of too much encryption.

Geoffrey Finlay, chief executive at nCipher, said in a statement, "Companies fear encryption may open Pandora's box." But warned firms that the alternative is much worse. However, he added, "With a well planned deployment, supported by strong key management and access controls it is not a difficult barrier to overcome.""

And tape storage (ref Neoscale) is increasing (slowly) according to this:

[timtom2] 14/1/2008 09:08

riv - was in an out of NCH over a period before and during cashback etc.
Neo scale looks like a decent acquisition so long as no great depence on Tape going forward. Tape days are coming to a close and big users are migrating from what I have seen and been told by those who have some exposure to the market.

[rivaldo] 14/1/2008 08:29

T2, if you read prior posts you'd see NeoScale had 300 customers - and from the acquisition RNS its products "are well-proven and widely deployed in hundreds of customer locations worldwide".

NCH have thus picked up a bargain at virtually no cost, so it's small beer in the overall scheme of things but gives NCH a whole new customer base to sell to and a new range of products to sell via a company who were too under-resourced to capitalise on their own position.

NCH have stated that the acquisition is progressing in line with expectations, so integration appears to be just fine.

Bouncing today I see.